The School of Odds
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Guiseley AFC v Bradford (Park Avenue) AFC

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Final: Guiseley AFC 1–0 Bradford (Park Avenue) AFC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guiseley AFC (Local)

Prediction 48.98%2.04fair odd
EV -5.48%
Edge -2.84%
Kelly -5.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.60%48.95%49.01%50.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.861.851.9355.87%53.78%54.05%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bradford (Park Avenue) AFC (Visit)

Prediction 25.08%3.99fair odd
EV -4.19%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.94%25.20%25.11%27.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.533.453.8229.85%28.33%28.99%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.94%3.85fair odd
EV +0.655%
Edge +0.169%
Kelly +0.227%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.94%25.85%25.89%26.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.503.453.8830.30%28.60%28.99%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guiseley AFC (Local): 48.98%; Bradford (Park Avenue) AFC (Visit): 25.08%; Draw: 25.94%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.85. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.655%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.46%EV -7.44%E -3.93%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.96%EV -4.19%E -1.10%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.58%EV +0.655%E +0.169%K +0.227%G +0.001%4.9%2026-10-03 11:43
Codere (IT)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.00%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -10.96%E -3.09%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -1.42%E -0.374%K -0.507%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-03 11:10
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -12.21%E -3.49%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -1.42%E -0.374%K -0.507%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-03 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.91%EV -8.90%E -4.79%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.15%EV -15.98%E -4.77%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -1.42%E -0.374%K -0.507%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-03 11:10
BetMGM🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.48%E -2.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -7.20%E -1.95%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -4.01%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 11:09
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.46%E -3.38%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -8.45%E -2.32%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -5.31%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-03 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.32%EV -6.95%E -3.66%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -4.69%E -1.23%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-03 13:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.98%EV -12.33%E -6.89%K -15.61%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.31%EV -7.70%E -2.09%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.71%EV -9.72%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:08
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.71%EV -7.92%E -4.22%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -7.20%E -1.95%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-03 11:10
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.71%EV -7.92%E -4.22%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -7.20%E -1.95%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.39%E -5.08%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -13.47%E -3.90%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.39%E -5.08%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -13.47%E -3.90%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.39%E -5.08%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -13.47%E -3.90%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:10
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.39%E -5.08%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -13.47%E -3.90%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:10
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.39%E -5.08%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -13.47%E -3.90%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.39%E -5.08%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -13.47%E -3.90%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:10
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.39%E -5.08%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -13.47%E -3.90%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.39%E -5.08%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -13.47%E -3.90%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.39%E -5.08%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -13.47%E -3.90%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.39%E -5.08%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -13.47%E -3.90%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -9.39%E -5.08%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.72%E -4.33%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-03 11:10
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -9.39%E -5.08%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.72%E -4.33%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-03 11:10
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -9.39%E -5.08%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.72%E -4.33%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-03 11:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -9.39%E -5.08%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.72%E -4.33%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-03 11:10
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.60%EV -8.41%E -4.50%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.43%EV -12.21%E -3.49%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-03 11:10
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.21%EV -11.84%E -6.58%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.94%EV -7.20%E -1.95%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-03 11:24
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.21%EV -11.84%E -6.58%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.94%EV -7.20%E -1.95%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-03 11:24
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.78%EV -10.37%E -5.67%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.72%EV -14.72%E -4.33%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.50%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-03 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.