The School of Odds
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Gateshead FC v Stafford Rangers FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:01 UTC

Final: Gateshead FC 1–1 Stafford Rangers FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gateshead FC (Local)

Prediction 53.21%1.88fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -3.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.47%53.18%53.16%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.731.711.8258.82%57.94%58.48%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Stafford Rangers FC (Visit)

Prediction 26.03%3.84fair odd
EV +4.11%
Edge +1.03%
Kelly +1.37%
Growth +0.056%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.19%25.69%26.27%28.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.583.654.0030.77%27.95%27.40%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.76%4.82fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.291%
Kelly -0.369%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.43%21.13%20.56%23.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.123.904.7525.97%24.28%25.64%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gateshead FC (Local): 53.21%; Stafford Rangers FC (Visit): 26.03%; Draw: 20.76%. For Stafford Rangers FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.88%E -3.93%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV +4.11%E +1.03%K +1.37%G +0.056%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -19.03%E -4.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 13:20
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.88%E -3.93%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV +4.11%E +1.03%K +1.37%G +0.056%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -19.03%E -4.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 12:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.25%EV -9.01%E -5.27%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -1.09%E -0.288%K -0.391%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -1.38%E -0.291%K -0.369%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 13:59
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.28%EV -9.01%E -5.27%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -5.00%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.22%EV -20.07%E -5.21%K -7.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 13:30
TABtouch🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.28%EV -9.01%E -5.27%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -5.00%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.22%EV -20.07%E -5.21%K -7.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 13:30
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.28%EV -9.01%E -5.27%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -5.00%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.22%EV -20.07%E -5.21%K -7.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 13:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.28%EV -9.01%E -5.27%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -5.00%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.22%EV -20.07%E -5.21%K -7.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 13:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.28%EV -9.01%E -5.27%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -5.00%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.22%EV -20.07%E -5.21%K -7.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 13:30
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.28%EV -9.01%E -5.27%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -5.00%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.22%EV -20.07%E -5.21%K -7.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 13:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.28%EV -9.01%E -5.27%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -5.00%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.22%EV -20.07%E -5.21%K -7.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 13:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.28%EV -9.01%E -5.27%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -5.00%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.22%EV -20.07%E -5.21%K -7.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 13:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.28%EV -9.01%E -5.27%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -5.00%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.22%EV -20.07%E -5.21%K -7.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 13:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.28%EV -9.01%E -5.27%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -5.00%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.22%EV -20.07%E -5.21%K -7.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 13:30
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.28%EV -9.01%E -5.27%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -5.00%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.22%EV -20.07%E -5.21%K -7.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 13:30
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.29%EV -5.82%E -3.29%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -4.50%E -0.978%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 12:04
Codere (IT)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.57%EV -5.28%E -2.97%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -11.51%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.91%EV -2.42%E -0.515%K -0.655%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 12:35
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -6.88%E -3.93%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.51%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -12.80%E -3.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-17 14:00
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.92%EV -7.41%E -4.26%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -11.51%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -12.80%E -3.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:43
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -9.54%E -5.61%K -13.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.51%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -12.80%E -3.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 12:05
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -9.54%E -5.61%K -13.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.51%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -12.80%E -3.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 12:05
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -9.54%E -5.61%K -13.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.51%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -12.80%E -3.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 12:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -9.54%E -5.61%K -13.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.51%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -12.80%E -3.05%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 12:05
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -3.16%E -1.73%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.73%EV -15.15%E -4.65%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.73I 21.14%NM 19.80%EV -1.80%E -0.380%K -0.482%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 13:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.48%EV -7.41%E -4.26%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -15.41%E -4.74%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.43%EV -2.42%E -0.515%K -0.655%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-17 12:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.