The School of Odds
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Forest Green Rovers v Chesham United FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:46 UTC

Final: Forest Green Rovers 5–0 Chesham United FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Forest Green Rovers (Local)

Prediction 76.21%1.31fair odd
EV -4.74%
Edge -3.79%
Kelly -18.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.92%76.19%76.23%77.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.231.2584.75%81.94%81.63%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chesham United FC (Visit)

Prediction 8.79%11.38fair odd
EV +1.06%
Edge +0.092%
Kelly +0.101%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 11.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.90%8.76%8.74%10.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.509.509.0011.5011.76%10.52%11.11%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.00%6.67fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -0.381%
Kelly -0.451%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.99%15.06%15.04%16.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.805.756.5018.18%17.23%17.39%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Forest Green Rovers (Local): 76.21%; Chesham United FC (Visit): 8.79%; Draw: 15.00%. For Chesham United FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.38. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
betano_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.97%EV -10.07%E -8.54%K -55.96%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.90%EV +1.06%E +0.092%K +0.101%G +0.001%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.14%EV -9.98%E -1.66%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-20 18:44
Bet Victor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.97%EV -10.07%E -8.54%K -55.96%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.90%EV +1.06%E +0.092%K +0.101%G +0.001%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.14%EV -9.98%E -1.66%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-20 18:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -6.26%E -5.09%K -27.23%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -3.34%E -0.303%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -9.98%E -1.66%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 11:40
Betway🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.59%EV -10.07%E -8.54%K -55.96%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -3.34%E -0.303%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -2.48%E -0.381%K -0.451%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-20 18:45
betfred_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.69%EV -10.07%E -8.54%K -55.96%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -3.34%E -0.303%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -9.98%E -1.66%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-20 18:35
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.28%EV -8.55%E -7.12%K -42.75%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.72%EV -7.73%E -0.736%K -0.814%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.01%EV -8.48%E -1.39%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-20 18:35
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.28%EV -8.55%E -7.12%K -42.75%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.72%EV -7.73%E -0.736%K -0.814%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.01%EV -8.48%E -1.39%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-20 18:35
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.09%EV -4.74%E -3.79%K -18.95%G +0.000%10.30I 9.71%NM 9.11%EV -9.49%E -0.921%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.94I 16.84%NM 15.80%EV -10.88%E -1.83%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-20 18:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.06%EV -5.50%E -4.44%K -22.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -12.12%E -1.21%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -2.48%E -0.381%K -0.451%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-20 18:44
Bovada🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.95%EV -8.55%E -7.12%K -42.75%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.99%EV -12.12%E -1.21%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.06%EV -15.98%E -2.85%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-20 18:42
Unibet (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -8.55%E -7.12%K -42.75%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -12.12%E -1.21%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -17.48%E -3.18%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 11:40
BetMGM🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.74%EV -7.02%E -5.76%K -31.93%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.48%EV -14.32%E -1.47%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.78%EV -6.23%E -0.997%K -1.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 18:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 76.43%EV -9.31%E -7.82%K -49.01%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.57%EV -16.52%E -1.74%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -2.48%E -0.381%K -0.451%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-20 18:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.20%EV -7.02%E -5.76%K -31.93%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -20.91%E -2.32%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.74%EV -13.73%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-20 18:35
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.20%EV -7.02%E -5.76%K -31.93%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -20.91%E -2.32%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.74%EV -13.73%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-20 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.20%EV -7.02%E -5.76%K -31.93%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -20.91%E -2.32%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.74%EV -13.73%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-20 18:35
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.20%EV -7.02%E -5.76%K -31.93%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -20.91%E -2.32%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.74%EV -13.73%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-20 18:35
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.44%K -22.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -25.30%E -2.98%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -17.48%E -3.18%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 06:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.44%K -22.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -25.30%E -2.98%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -17.48%E -3.18%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 06:50
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.44%K -22.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -25.30%E -2.98%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -17.48%E -3.18%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 06:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.44%K -22.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -25.30%E -2.98%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -17.48%E -3.18%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 10:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.44%K -22.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -25.30%E -2.98%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -17.48%E -3.18%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 06:49
TABtouch🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.44%K -22.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -25.30%E -2.98%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -17.48%E -3.18%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 06:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.44%K -22.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -25.30%E -2.98%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -17.48%E -3.18%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 06:50
Casumo🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.44%K -22.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -25.30%E -2.98%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -17.48%E -3.18%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 06:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.44%K -22.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -25.30%E -2.98%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -17.48%E -3.18%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 06:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.44%K -22.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -25.30%E -2.98%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -17.48%E -3.18%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 06:50
betPARX🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.44%K -22.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -25.30%E -2.98%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -17.48%E -3.18%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 06:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.