The School of Odds
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FC United of Manchester v Altrincham FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:45 UTC

Final: FC United of Manchester 2–6 Altrincham FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC United of Manchester (Local)

Prediction 28.27%3.54fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.49%29.40%28.26%36.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.503.193.253.4040.00%31.37%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Altrincham FC (Visit)

Prediction 46.93%2.13fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -3.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.95%46.54%47.00%47.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.951.942.0552.63%51.35%51.55%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.80%4.03fair odd
EV +11.62%
Edge +2.58%
Kelly +3.32%
Growth +0.386%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.02%24.07%24.74%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.573.504.5029.41%28.00%28.57%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC United of Manchester (Local): 28.27%; Altrincham FC (Visit): 46.93%; Draw: 24.80%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.03. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.04%EV -29.33%E -11.73%K -19.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.95%EV -3.80%E -1.85%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV +11.62%E +2.58%K +3.32%G +0.386%11.0%2026-10-20 03:00
1xBet🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 28.99%EV -8.70%E -2.69%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.30%EV -7.08%E -3.58%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -2.02%E -0.512%K -0.686%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 18:44
Codere (IT)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.09%EV -7.08%E -3.58%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -4.50%E -1.17%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-20 03:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.95%EV -8.96%E -4.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -4.50%E -1.17%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-20 03:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -3.89%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -8.49%E -4.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -5.74%E -1.51%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-20 15:15
Bovada🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -10.96%E -3.48%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.11%EV -10.37%E -5.43%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.32%EV -8.22%E -2.22%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-20 18:35
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -9.55%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.11%EV -7.08%E -3.58%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -10.70%E -2.97%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-20 15:10
Bet Victor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.15%EV -9.43%E -4.88%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.70%E -2.97%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-20 18:40
betano_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.15%EV -9.43%E -4.88%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.70%E -2.97%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-20 18:44
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -9.55%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -10.37%E -5.43%K -11.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -10.70%E -2.97%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-20 15:10
Neds🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.49%E -4.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.19%E -3.77%K -5.27%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-20 10:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.49%E -4.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.19%E -3.77%K -5.27%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-20 10:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.49%E -4.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.19%E -3.77%K -5.27%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-20 10:00
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.49%E -4.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.19%E -3.77%K -5.27%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-20 09:59
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -8.49%E -4.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -15.67%E -4.61%K -6.53%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 18:14
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -8.49%E -4.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -15.67%E -4.61%K -6.53%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 18:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -8.49%E -4.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -15.67%E -4.61%K -6.53%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 18:15
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.14%EV -8.96%E -4.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -15.67%E -4.61%K -6.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 18:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.14%EV -8.96%E -4.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -15.67%E -4.61%K -6.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 18:15
betPARX🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.14%EV -8.96%E -4.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -15.67%E -4.61%K -6.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 18:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.14%EV -8.96%E -4.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -15.67%E -4.61%K -6.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 18:15
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.14%EV -8.96%E -4.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -15.67%E -4.61%K -6.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 18:15
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.14%EV -8.96%E -4.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -15.67%E -4.61%K -6.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 18:15
TABtouch🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.14%EV -8.96%E -4.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -15.67%E -4.61%K -6.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 18:15
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.14%EV -8.96%E -4.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -15.67%E -4.61%K -6.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 18:15
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.22%EV -12.37%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.05%EV -10.84%E -5.70%K -12.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.73%EV -15.67%E -4.61%K -6.53%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-20 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.