The School of Odds
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Exmouth Town FC v Banbury United FC

Kickoff: 2026-09-09 18:45 UTC

Final: Exmouth Town FC 2–1 Banbury United FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Exmouth Town FC (Local)

Prediction 25.77%3.88fair odd
EV -4.66%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.90%25.76%25.66%28.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.273.103.7032.26%30.55%32.26%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Banbury United FC (Visit)

Prediction 47.74%2.09fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.805%
Kelly -1.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.32%47.69%47.96%48.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.012.062.0653.48%49.76%48.54%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.49%3.77fair odd
EV -4.62%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.66%26.55%26.38%27.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.313.203.6031.25%30.21%31.25%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Exmouth Town FC (Local): 25.77%; Banbury United FC (Visit): 47.74%; Draw: 26.49%. For Banbury United FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.06, with an expected value of -1.66%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -4.66%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -4.62%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 17:30
Codere (IT)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.64%EV -5.95%E -1.63%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -5.95%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 17:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.24%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -4.52%E -2.26%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.27%E -2.08%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 17:30
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -7.24%E -2.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.94%EV -10.73%E -5.74%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -12.57%E -3.81%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-09 17:35
Winamax (DE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -11.10%E -3.22%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.94%EV -9.30%E -4.89%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -5.95%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 17:30
1xBet🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 26.44%EV -11.36%E -3.30%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.12%EV -7.87%E -4.08%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.44%EV -8.86%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 26.65%EV -12.91%E -3.82%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.16%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.19%EV -8.86%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-09 17:40
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -20.12%E -6.49%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -1.66%E -0.805%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -15.22%E -4.76%K -6.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 17:25
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -20.12%E -6.49%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -1.66%E -0.805%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -15.22%E -4.76%K -6.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 17:25
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -20.12%E -6.49%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -1.66%E -0.805%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -15.22%E -4.76%K -6.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 17:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -20.12%E -6.49%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -1.66%E -0.805%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -15.22%E -4.76%K -6.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 17:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -20.12%E -6.49%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -1.66%E -0.805%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -15.22%E -4.76%K -6.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 17:25
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -20.12%E -6.49%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -1.66%E -0.805%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -15.22%E -4.76%K -6.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 17:25
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -20.12%E -6.49%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -1.66%E -0.805%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -15.22%E -4.76%K -6.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 17:25
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -20.12%E -6.49%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -1.66%E -0.805%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -15.22%E -4.76%K -6.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 17:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -20.12%E -6.49%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -1.66%E -0.805%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -15.22%E -4.76%K -6.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -20.12%E -6.49%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -1.66%E -0.805%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -15.22%E -4.76%K -6.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 17:25
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -20.12%E -6.49%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.32%EV -1.66%E -0.805%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -15.22%E -4.76%K -6.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 17:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.