The School of Odds
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Dover Athletic FC v Dorking Wanderers FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Dover Athletic FC 3–2 Dorking Wanderers FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dover Athletic FC (Local)

Prediction 34.75%2.88fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -0.962%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.24%34.66%34.84%35.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.632.652.8040.00%37.97%37.74%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dorking Wanderers FC (Visit)

Prediction 41.46%2.41fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.88%41.77%41.66%45.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.122.3450.00%46.31%47.17%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.79%4.20fair odd
EV -0.081%
Edge -0.019%
Kelly -0.025%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.48%23.57%23.50%24.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.763.704.2027.78%26.58%27.03%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dover Athletic FC (Local): 34.75%; Dorking Wanderers FC (Visit): 41.46%; Draw: 23.79%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.203. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.200, with an expected value of -0.081%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -2.69%E -0.962%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.38%EV -10.87%E -5.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.57%EV -4.43%E -1.61%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.25%EV -6.72%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -2.46%E -0.600%K -0.793%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 13:45
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -4.43%E -1.61%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.30%EV -8.79%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 13:40
1xBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.24%EV -5.48%E -2.01%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.46%EV -13.77%E -6.62%K -12.75%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.30%EV -7.69%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 13:40
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.41%EV -6.17%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -17.08%E -8.54%K -17.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.48%EV -0.081%E -0.019%K -0.025%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-17 13:54
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.17%EV -4.65%E -2.02%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -2.46%E -0.600%K -0.793%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 13:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.89%EV -2.99%E -1.28%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.89%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 07:50
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.60%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.00%EV -12.11%E -5.71%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.40%EV -13.17%E -3.61%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 13:35
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.60%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.00%EV -12.11%E -5.71%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.40%EV -13.17%E -3.61%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 13:35
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.60%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.00%EV -12.11%E -5.71%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.40%EV -13.17%E -3.61%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 13:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.60%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.00%EV -12.11%E -5.71%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.40%EV -13.17%E -3.61%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 13:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.60%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.00%EV -12.11%E -5.71%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.40%EV -13.17%E -3.61%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 13:35
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.60%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.00%EV -12.11%E -5.71%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.40%EV -13.17%E -3.61%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 13:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.60%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.00%EV -12.11%E -5.71%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.40%EV -13.17%E -3.61%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 13:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.60%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.00%EV -12.11%E -5.71%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.40%EV -13.17%E -3.61%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 13:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.60%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.00%EV -12.11%E -5.71%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.40%EV -13.17%E -3.61%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 13:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.60%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.00%EV -12.11%E -5.71%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.40%EV -13.17%E -3.61%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 13:35
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.60%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.00%EV -12.11%E -5.71%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.40%EV -13.17%E -3.61%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 13:33
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.56%EV -9.65%E -3.71%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -10.87%E -5.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:43
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.44%EV -9.65%E -3.71%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.41%EV -15.01%E -7.32%K -14.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.15%EV -14.35%E -3.99%K -5.52%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-17 13:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.55%EV -11.38%E -4.46%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.28%EV -6.72%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.17%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-17 07:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.19%EV -11.38%E -4.46%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.88%EV -6.72%E -2.99%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.93%EV -14.35%E -3.99%K -5.52%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-17 07:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.68%EV -13.12%E -5.25%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -8.79%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:39
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.68%EV -13.12%E -5.25%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -8.79%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:39
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.68%EV -13.12%E -5.25%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -8.79%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.68%EV -13.12%E -5.25%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -8.79%E -4.00%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.