The School of Odds
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Chorley FC v Worcester City FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Chorley FC 1–1 Worcester City FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chorley FC (Local)

Prediction 58.17%1.72fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -2.07%
Kelly -5.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.23%58.23%58.14%59.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.581.571.6666.67%63.25%63.69%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Worcester City FC (Visit)

Prediction 19.04%5.25fair odd
EV -0.015%
Edge -0.003%
Kelly -0.003%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.68%19.09%18.99%20.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.564.505.2523.53%21.92%22.22%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.78%4.39fair odd
EV +2.52%
Edge +0.560%
Kelly +0.719%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.21%22.68%22.87%23.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.963.954.5026.67%25.23%25.32%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chorley FC (Local): 58.17%; Worcester City FC (Visit): 19.04%; Draw: 22.78%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.39. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.52%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.91%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.88%EV -8.58%E -1.79%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.21%EV +2.52%E +0.560%K +0.719%G +0.018%4.8%2026-10-17 13:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.65%EV -5.18%E -3.18%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.12%EV -4.78%E -0.955%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.23%EV -2.04%E -0.474%K -0.618%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-17 12:05
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -14.30%E -3.18%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -4.32%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 13:45
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -4.78%E -0.955%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.59%E -1.61%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-17 08:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.87%EV -6.34%E -3.94%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -8.58%E -1.79%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -6.59%E -1.61%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 07:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.59%EV -8.09%E -5.12%K -13.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -14.30%E -3.18%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -6.59%E -1.61%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 07:40
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.12%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -0.015%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -8.87%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-17 13:58
betano_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.12%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -0.015%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -8.87%E -2.22%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-17 13:58
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.44%EV -8.09%E -5.12%K -13.94%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.98%EV -19.06%E -4.48%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.58%EV -10.01%E -2.53%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.44%EV -8.09%E -5.12%K -13.94%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.98%EV -19.06%E -4.48%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.58%EV -10.01%E -2.53%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.44%EV -8.09%E -5.12%K -13.94%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.98%EV -19.06%E -4.48%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.58%EV -10.01%E -2.53%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:25
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.91%EV -19.06%E -4.48%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.50%EV -10.01%E -2.53%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:24
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.91%EV -19.06%E -4.48%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.50%EV -10.01%E -2.53%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.91%EV -19.06%E -4.48%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.50%EV -10.01%E -2.53%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:25
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.91%EV -19.06%E -4.48%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.50%EV -10.01%E -2.53%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.91%EV -19.06%E -4.48%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.50%EV -10.01%E -2.53%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.91%EV -19.06%E -4.48%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.50%EV -10.01%E -2.53%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.91%EV -19.06%E -4.48%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.50%EV -10.01%E -2.53%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:25
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.91%EV -19.06%E -4.48%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.50%EV -10.01%E -2.53%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:25
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.23%EV -3.43%E -2.07%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 19.90%EV -10.68%E -2.28%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 23.87%EV -10.92%E -2.79%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 13:59
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.40%EV -6.92%E -4.33%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -6.68%E -1.36%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -12.29%E -3.19%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-16 17:15
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.40%EV -6.92%E -4.33%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -6.68%E -1.36%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -12.29%E -3.19%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-16 17:20
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 56.86%EV -7.50%E -4.72%K -12.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -12.39%E -2.69%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.48%EV -12.29%E -3.19%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 12:55
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.66%EV -9.83%E -6.34%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.82%EV -9.54%E -2.01%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -13.43%E -3.53%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 10:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.75%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -14.30%E -3.18%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -13.43%E -3.53%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-17 08:25
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.75%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -14.30%E -3.18%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -13.43%E -3.53%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-17 08:25
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.75%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -14.30%E -3.18%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -13.43%E -3.53%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-17 08:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.75%EV -8.67%E -5.52%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -14.30%E -3.18%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.45%EV -13.43%E -3.53%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-17 08:25
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.93%EV -12.74%E -8.49%K -25.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.89%EV -12.39%E -2.69%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.17%EV -14.57%E -3.88%K -5.30%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-17 13:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.