The School of Odds
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Chesham United FC v Forest Green Rovers

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Chesham United FC 0–0 Forest Green Rovers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chesham United FC (Local)

Prediction 20.94%4.77fair odd
EV -0.520%
Edge -0.110%
Kelly -0.139%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.21%21.05%20.80%22.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.124.004.7525.64%24.25%25.00%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Forest Green Rovers (Visit)

Prediction 57.06%1.75fair odd
EV -4.71%
Edge -2.82%
Kelly -7.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.39%57.06%56.96%58.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.611.611.6765.36%62.19%62.11%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.00%4.55fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -0.729%
Kelly -0.943%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.88%21.90%22.24%22.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.134.104.4025.00%24.22%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chesham United FC (Local): 20.94%; Forest Green Rovers (Visit): 57.06%; Draw: 22.00%. For Chesham United FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.75, with an expected value of -0.520%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.21%EV -0.520%E -0.110%K -0.139%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.47%EV -4.71%E -2.82%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.32%EV -5.41%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-17 13:50
Codere (IT)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.98%EV -6.42%E -3.92%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 13:50
Bet Victor🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.17%EV -8.71%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -3.21%E -0.729%K -0.943%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 13:50
betano_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -5.76%E -1.28%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.17%EV -8.71%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -3.21%E -0.729%K -0.943%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 13:50
BetMGM🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -7.85%E -1.78%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.85%E -3.55%K -9.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.21%E -0.729%K -0.943%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-17 13:55
NordicBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.82%EV -7.85%E -1.78%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.56%EV -7.57%E -4.67%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.62%EV -10.91%E -2.69%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 13:50
Betsson🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.82%EV -7.85%E -1.78%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.56%EV -7.57%E -4.67%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.62%EV -10.91%E -2.69%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 13:50
Unibet (UK)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.81%EV -8.90%E -2.05%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.57%EV -8.71%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-17 13:45
Bovada🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.00%EV -9.94%E -2.31%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.43%EV -8.71%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-17 13:50
1xBet🎯4.28I 23.36%NM 21.15%EV -10.36%E -2.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.30%EV -9.85%E -6.23%K -16.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-17 13:50
Winamax (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -12.04%E -2.87%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -8.71%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -7.61%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 13:45
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -16.23%E -4.06%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.51%EV -8.71%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.88%EV -4.75%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 13:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -16.23%E -4.06%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -8.71%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:50
Neds🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -16.23%E -4.06%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -8.71%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:50
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -16.23%E -4.06%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -8.71%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -16.23%E -4.06%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -8.71%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 13:50
betfred_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 21.67%EV -16.23%E -4.06%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 56.66%EV -12.70%E -8.30%K -23.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.67%EV -12.01%E -3.00%K -4.00%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-17 13:50
Unibet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -18.32%E -4.70%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.39%EV -8.14%E -5.05%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -9.81%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:50
TABtouch🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -18.32%E -4.70%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.39%EV -8.14%E -5.05%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -9.81%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:50
Casumo🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -18.32%E -4.70%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.39%EV -8.14%E -5.05%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -9.81%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:50
Unibet (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -18.32%E -4.70%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.39%EV -8.14%E -5.05%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -9.81%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:50
LiveScore Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -18.32%E -4.70%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.39%EV -8.14%E -5.05%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -9.81%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:50
Grosvenor🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -18.32%E -4.70%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.39%EV -8.14%E -5.05%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -9.81%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -18.32%E -4.70%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.39%EV -8.14%E -5.05%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -9.81%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -18.32%E -4.70%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.39%EV -8.14%E -5.05%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -9.81%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:50
Svenska Spel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -18.32%E -4.70%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.39%EV -8.14%E -5.05%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -9.81%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -18.32%E -4.70%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.39%EV -8.14%E -5.05%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -9.81%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:50
betPARX🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -18.32%E -4.70%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.39%EV -8.14%E -5.05%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -9.81%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 13:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.