The School of Odds
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Carlisle United v Tamworth FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:01 UTC

Final: Carlisle United 2–1 Tamworth FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carlisle United (Local)

Prediction 57.16%1.75fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -4.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.83%57.14%57.28%58.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.571.571.6966.67%63.86%63.69%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tamworth FC (Visit)

Prediction 20.32%4.92fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.512%
Kelly -0.647%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.23%20.45%20.24%22.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.514.604.8025.00%22.19%21.74%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.52%4.44fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -0.573%
Kelly -0.745%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.88%22.42%22.48%23.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.064.104.3326.67%24.63%24.39%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlisle United (Local): 57.16%; Tamworth FC (Visit): 20.32%; Draw: 22.52%. For Tamworth FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.80, with an expected value of -2.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -3.40%E -2.01%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -3.47%E -0.731%K -0.926%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -9.91%E -2.48%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 13:35
1xBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.95%EV -4.55%E -2.72%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.48I 22.32%NM 20.86%EV -8.96%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.19%EV -9.24%E -2.29%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 13:59
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.48%EV -5.69%E -3.45%K -8.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV -6.52%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.90%EV -2.48%E -0.573%K -0.745%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-17 10:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.33%EV -6.83%E -4.19%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -4.49%E -0.955%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.66%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 10:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.02%EV -8.55%E -5.34%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -10.59%E -2.41%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -7.66%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 10:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.63%EV -8.55%E -5.34%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -8.55%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV -12.17%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-17 10:14
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.51%EV -8.55%E -5.34%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -18.71%E -4.68%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.88%EV -2.48%E -0.573%K -0.745%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.55%E -5.34%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -14.65%E -3.49%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -12.17%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 10:20
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.55%E -5.34%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -14.65%E -3.49%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -12.17%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 10:20
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.55%E -5.34%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -14.65%E -3.49%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -12.17%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 10:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.55%E -5.34%K -14.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -14.65%E -3.49%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -12.17%E -3.12%K -4.20%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 10:20
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 56.85%EV -9.12%E -5.74%K -15.46%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.55%EV -10.59%E -2.41%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -9.91%E -2.48%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 13:24
betano_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.79%EV -10.26%E -6.54%K -18.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -2.46%E -0.512%K -0.647%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 13:58
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.79%EV -10.26%E -6.54%K -18.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -2.46%E -0.512%K -0.647%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 13:58
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.98%EV -10.26%E -6.54%K -18.01%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.66%EV -12.01%E -2.77%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -9.91%E -2.48%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-17 13:44
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.78%EV -13.12%E -8.63%K -25.23%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -6.52%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.79%EV -7.66%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 06:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.78%EV -13.12%E -8.63%K -25.23%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -6.52%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.79%EV -7.66%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 06:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.78%EV -13.12%E -8.63%K -25.23%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -6.52%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.79%EV -7.66%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 06:04
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.94%EV -13.69%E -9.07%K -26.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -6.52%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.71%EV -7.66%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 06:05
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.94%EV -13.69%E -9.07%K -26.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -6.52%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.71%EV -7.66%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 06:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.94%EV -13.69%E -9.07%K -26.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -6.52%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.71%EV -7.66%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 06:04
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.94%EV -13.69%E -9.07%K -26.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -6.52%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.71%EV -7.66%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 06:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.94%EV -13.69%E -9.07%K -26.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -6.52%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.71%EV -7.66%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 06:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.94%EV -13.69%E -9.07%K -26.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -6.52%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.71%EV -7.66%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 06:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.94%EV -13.69%E -9.07%K -26.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -6.52%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.71%EV -7.66%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 06:04
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.94%EV -13.69%E -9.07%K -26.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -6.52%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.71%EV -7.66%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 06:04
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.69%EV -14.26%E -9.51%K -28.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.23%EV -8.55%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.08%EV -15.54%E -4.15%K -5.65%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-17 10:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.