The School of Odds
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Buxton FC v South Shields FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:59 UTC

Final: Buxton FC 0–2 South Shields FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Buxton FC (Local)

Prediction 33.74%2.96fair odd
EV -5.53%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -3.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.71%33.87%33.67%35.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.692.702.8038.46%37.14%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

South Shields FC (Visit)

Prediction 43.40%2.30fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.25%43.58%43.52%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.072.052.2548.78%48.21%48.78%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.87%4.37fair odd
EV +8.62%
Edge +1.81%
Kelly +2.30%
Growth +0.198%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.49%22.55%22.81%23.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.973.854.7526.67%25.16%25.97%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Buxton FC (Local): 33.74%; South Shields FC (Visit): 43.40%; Draw: 22.87%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.37. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.34%EV -11.61%E -4.43%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.17%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV +8.62%E +1.81%K +2.30%G +0.198%8.0%2026-10-03 11:45
1xBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.20%EV -8.57%E -3.16%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.96%EV -5.83%E -2.69%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 20.83%EV +4.73%E +1.03%K +1.32%G +0.062%4.8%2026-10-03 13:45
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -5.53%E -1.98%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.70%E -3.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -3.96%E -0.943%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 12:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -7.22%E -2.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -8.00%E -3.77%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -3.96%E -0.943%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-03 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.20%EV -10.60%E -4.00%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -3.96%E -0.943%K -1.24%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-03 11:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.57%EV -7.22%E -2.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.25%EV -2.36%E -1.05%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -6.25%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 13:55
Bovada🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.90%EV -7.22%E -2.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.36%EV -6.70%E -3.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.25%E -1.52%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-03 13:55
NordicBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.71%EV -5.53%E -1.98%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.68%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.61%EV -7.39%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-03 13:55
Betsson🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.71%EV -5.53%E -1.98%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.68%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.61%EV -7.39%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-03 13:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.81%EV -11.27%E -4.29%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.38%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -10.82%E -2.77%K -3.73%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-03 12:15
Neds🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.81%EV -11.27%E -4.29%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.38%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -10.82%E -2.77%K -3.73%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-03 12:15
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.90%EV -11.61%E -4.43%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.33%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.77%EV -10.82%E -2.77%K -3.73%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-03 12:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.90%EV -11.61%E -4.43%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.33%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.77%EV -10.82%E -2.77%K -3.73%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-03 12:15
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -8.91%E -3.30%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.64%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -11.96%E -3.11%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:46
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -8.91%E -3.30%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.64%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -11.96%E -3.11%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:46
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -8.91%E -3.30%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.64%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -11.96%E -3.11%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:46
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -8.91%E -3.30%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.64%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -11.96%E -3.11%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:45
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -8.91%E -3.30%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.64%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -11.96%E -3.11%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -8.91%E -3.30%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.64%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -11.96%E -3.11%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:46
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -8.91%E -3.30%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.64%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -11.96%E -3.11%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:46
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -8.91%E -3.30%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.64%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -11.96%E -3.11%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:46
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -8.91%E -3.30%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.64%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -11.96%E -3.11%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -8.91%E -3.30%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.64%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -11.96%E -3.11%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.72%EV -10.60%E -4.00%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 42.76%EV -9.30%E -4.45%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -13.11%E -3.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 13:54
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.05%EV -11.61%E -4.43%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.48%EV -8.87%E -4.22%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -13.11%E -3.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-03 13:58
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -8.91%E -3.30%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.50%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -13.11%E -3.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-03 13:53
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -8.91%E -3.30%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.50%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -13.11%E -3.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-03 13:54
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.77%EV -12.28%E -4.72%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.82%EV -11.04%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.41%EV -14.25%E -3.80%K -5.18%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-03 12:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.