The School of Odds
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Bury Town FC v Spalding United FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Final: Bury Town FC 1–1 Spalding United FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bury Town FC (Local)

Prediction 29.63%3.38fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.99%29.59%29.62%33.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.023.003.2536.36%33.14%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spalding United FC (Visit)

Prediction 44.65%2.24fair odd
EV -4.01%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -3.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.46%44.73%44.62%46.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.042.022.1550.00%49.08%49.50%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.73%3.89fair odd
EV +2.40%
Edge +0.603%
Kelly +0.805%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 3.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.93%25.68%25.76%26.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.533.453.9829.41%28.32%28.99%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bury Town FC (Local): 29.63%; Spalding United FC (Visit): 44.65%; Draw: 25.73%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.89. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.98, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.35%EV -6.24%E -2.97%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.93%EV +2.40%E +0.603%K +0.805%G +0.019%5.0%2026-10-03 11:30
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -10.71%E -5.35%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -2.23%E -0.587%K -0.797%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 11:10
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.12%EV -6.24%E -2.97%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -3.52%E -0.938%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-03 11:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.20%EV -18.53%E -6.74%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -4.01%E -1.87%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -3.52%E -0.938%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-03 11:10
Bovada🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -3.72%E -1.14%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.24%E -2.97%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -4.80%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-03 13:55
Codere (IT)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -8.16%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -6.24%E -2.97%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -4.80%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-03 11:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.20%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.24%E -2.97%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.38%E -2.05%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -8.48%E -4.13%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.95%E -2.84%K -3.98%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-03 11:10
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.71%E -5.35%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.95%E -2.84%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.71%E -5.35%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.95%E -2.84%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.71%E -5.35%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.95%E -2.84%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:20
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.71%E -5.35%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.95%E -2.84%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 29.60%EV -10.53%E -3.49%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.70%EV -10.71%E -5.35%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.69%EV -10.46%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 11:15
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.54%EV -8.48%E -4.13%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-03 11:40
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -6.68%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.54%EV -8.48%E -4.13%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-03 11:40
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.16%EV -12.61%E -4.27%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.05%EV -9.82%E -4.86%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.79%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.16%EV -12.61%E -4.27%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.05%EV -9.82%E -4.86%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.79%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-03 11:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.16%EV -12.61%E -4.27%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.05%EV -9.82%E -4.86%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.79%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-03 11:10
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.16%EV -12.61%E -4.27%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.05%EV -9.82%E -4.86%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.79%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-03 11:10
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.16%EV -12.61%E -4.27%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.05%EV -9.82%E -4.86%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.79%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-03 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.16%EV -12.61%E -4.27%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.05%EV -9.82%E -4.86%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.79%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-03 11:10
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.16%EV -12.61%E -4.27%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.05%EV -9.82%E -4.86%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.79%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-03 11:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.16%EV -12.61%E -4.27%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.05%EV -9.82%E -4.86%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.79%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-03 11:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.16%EV -12.61%E -4.27%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.05%EV -9.82%E -4.86%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.79%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-03 11:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.16%EV -12.61%E -4.27%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.05%EV -9.82%E -4.86%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.79%EV -11.24%E -3.26%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-03 11:10
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.48%E -4.13%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -12.52%E -3.68%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-03 13:54
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -11.12%E -3.71%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -10.71%E -5.35%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.52%E -3.68%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-03 11:15
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.42%EV -14.68%E -5.10%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.81%EV -10.71%E -5.35%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.77%EV -12.52%E -3.68%K -5.22%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-03 11:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.