The School of Odds
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Bury v Harrogate Town AFC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 11:30 UTC

Final: Bury 1–1 Harrogate Town AFC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bury (Local)

Prediction 25.32%3.95fair odd
EV +0.024%
Edge +0.006%
Kelly +0.008%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.17%25.25%25.16%27.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.453.333.9530.77%28.98%30.08%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Harrogate Town AFC (Visit)

Prediction 51.23%1.95fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -2.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.33%51.07%51.48%52.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.841.851.9157.14%54.48%54.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.45%4.26fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.362%
Kelly -0.475%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.73%23.69%23.35%25.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.763.704.2027.78%26.58%27.03%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bury (Local): 25.32%; Harrogate Town AFC (Visit): 51.23%; Draw: 23.45%. For Bury (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.949. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.950, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.024%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.17%EV +0.024%E +0.006%K +0.008%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.41%EV -8.81%E -4.95%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -15.59%E -4.33%K -6.00%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 09:35
Betsson🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.17%EV +0.024%E +0.006%K +0.008%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.41%EV -8.81%E -4.95%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -15.59%E -4.33%K -6.00%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 09:35
DraftKings🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.12%EV -3.77%E -0.993%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.16%EV -6.25%E -3.41%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -1.52%E -0.362%K -0.475%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-17 09:35
betano_uk🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -3.77%E -0.993%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -7.79%E -4.33%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -8.56%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 09:40
Bet Victor🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -3.77%E -0.993%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -7.79%E -4.33%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -8.56%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 09:39
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -8.84%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -10.35%E -5.91%K -13.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -6.21%E -1.55%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 09:35
1xBet🎯3.51I 28.49%NM 26.62%EV -11.12%E -3.17%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.92%EV -2.15%E -1.13%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.46%EV -10.43%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 11:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -11.37%E -3.25%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -4.20%E -2.25%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -3.87%E -0.943%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-17 09:35
Bovada🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -12.64%E -3.66%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.22%EV -6.25%E -3.41%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%EV -14.42%E -3.95%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-17 11:29
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -13.90%E -4.09%K -5.79%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -13.25%E -3.58%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-17 09:35
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -13.90%E -4.09%K -5.79%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -6.25%E -3.41%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -15.59%E -4.33%K -6.00%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-17 09:39
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -17.70%E -5.45%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -13.25%E -3.58%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 10:34
TABtouch🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -17.70%E -5.45%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -13.25%E -3.58%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 10:35
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -17.70%E -5.45%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -13.25%E -3.58%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 10:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -17.70%E -5.45%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -13.25%E -3.58%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 10:35
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -17.70%E -5.45%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -13.25%E -3.58%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 10:34
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -17.70%E -5.45%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -13.25%E -3.58%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 10:34
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -17.70%E -5.45%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -13.25%E -3.58%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 10:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -17.70%E -5.45%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -13.25%E -3.58%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 10:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -17.70%E -5.45%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -13.25%E -3.58%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 10:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -17.70%E -5.45%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -13.25%E -3.58%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 10:35
betPARX🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -17.70%E -5.45%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -5.22%E -2.82%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -13.25%E -3.58%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 10:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.