The School of Odds
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Boldmere St Michaels FC v Bourne Town FC

Kickoff: 2026-09-08 18:46 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boldmere St Michaels FC (Local)

Prediction 43.74%2.29fair odd
EV -5.95%
Edge -2.77%
Kelly -5.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.59%43.67%43.74%44.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.102.102.1548.78%47.67%47.62%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bourne Town FC (Visit)

Prediction 30.74%3.25fair odd
EV -4.71%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.31%30.83%30.74%31.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.882.962.953.1034.72%33.84%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.52%3.92fair odd
EV -5.58%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.76%25.50%25.52%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.413.303.7030.30%29.35%30.30%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boldmere St Michaels FC (Local): 43.74%; Bourne Town FC (Visit): 30.74%; Draw: 25.52%. For Bourne Town FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.25. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -4.71%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -5.95%E -2.77%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -5.58%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-08 13:49
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.65%EV -6.39%E -2.99%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 30.83%EV -6.86%E -2.27%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.52%EV -6.60%E -1.80%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 18:44
Codere (IT)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.97%EV -6.83%E -3.21%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.71%EV -6.25%E -2.05%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -5.58%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-08 13:49
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -15.79%E -4.78%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -15.79%E -4.78%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -15.79%E -4.78%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 18:00
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -15.79%E -4.78%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 18:00
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -15.79%E -4.78%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -15.79%E -4.78%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 18:00
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -15.79%E -4.78%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 18:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -15.79%E -4.78%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -15.79%E -4.78%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -15.79%E -4.78%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 18:00
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -15.79%E -4.78%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 18:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 43.11%EV -8.58%E -4.10%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.29%EV -11.47%E -3.98%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 25.60%EV -10.17%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-08 18:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.08%EV -10.33%E -5.04%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.76%EV -6.86%E -1.88%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-08 13:50
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -10.33%E -5.04%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -10.68%E -3.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 13:50
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.86%EV -10.33%E -5.04%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.51%EV -11.47%E -3.98%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -15.79%E -4.78%K -6.86%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-08 13:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.