The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Barton Town FC v Chorley FC

2026-10-03 14:00 UTC — FA Cup

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barton Town FC (Local)

Prediction 15.72%6.36fair odd
EV +6.08%
Edge +0.901%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.064%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.13%15.69%15.72%17.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.105.605.506.7519.61%17.86%18.18%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chorley FC (Visit)

Prediction 65.88%1.52fair odd
EV -5.14%
Edge -3.57%
Kelly -11.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.17%65.95%65.88%67.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.391.381.4475.19%71.99%72.46%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.41%5.43fair odd
EV -0.604%
Edge -0.112%
Kelly -0.137%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.09%18.36%18.41%19.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.844.705.4022.22%20.68%21.28%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Barton Town FC (Local): 15.72%; Chorley FC (Visit): 65.88%; Draw: 18.41%. For Barton Town FC (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.36. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.75, producing a positive expected value of +6.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.13%EV +6.08%E +0.901%K +1.06%G +0.064%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -7.11%E -5.04%K -17.35%G +0.000%5.24I 19.08%NM 18.21%EV -3.55%E -0.677%K -0.837%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-03 11:15
Marathon Bet🎯6.15I 16.26%NM 14.54%EV -3.35%E -0.545%K -0.650%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.23%EV -11.07%E -8.20%K -31.61%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.23%EV -14.41%E -3.10%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-03 12:58
BetMGM🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.71%E -0.951%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.14%E -3.57%K -11.67%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -3.36%E -0.641%K -0.792%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 11:09
Betway🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -5.71%E -0.951%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.60%EV -5.79%E -4.05%K -13.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -7.97%E -1.59%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 11:10
betfred_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.61%EV -5.71%E -0.951%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 65.91%EV -12.38%E -9.31%K -37.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.48%EV -17.17%E -3.82%K -4.91%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-03 11:10
Codere (IT)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.72%EV -11.99%E -2.14%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.94%EV -6.45%E -4.54%K -15.37%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -0.604%E -0.112%K -0.137%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.56%E -2.47%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.74%EV -9.09%E -6.59%K -23.92%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.01%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:10
Unibet (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.56%E -2.47%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.74%EV -9.09%E -6.59%K -23.92%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.01%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.56%E -2.47%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.74%EV -9.09%E -6.59%K -23.92%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.01%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:10
Casumo🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.56%E -2.47%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.74%EV -9.09%E -6.59%K -23.92%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.01%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:10
Grosvenor🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.56%E -2.47%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.74%EV -9.09%E -6.59%K -23.92%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.01%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.56%E -2.47%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.74%EV -9.09%E -6.59%K -23.92%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.01%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:10
TABtouch🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.56%E -2.47%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.74%EV -9.09%E -6.59%K -23.92%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.01%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:10
Virgin Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.56%E -2.47%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.74%EV -9.09%E -6.59%K -23.92%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.01%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:10
ATG (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.56%E -2.47%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.74%EV -9.09%E -6.59%K -23.92%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.01%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:10
Svenska Spel🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -13.56%E -2.47%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.74%EV -9.09%E -6.59%K -23.92%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.01%EV -13.49%E -2.87%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-03 11:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -17.49%E -3.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.17%EV -7.77%E -5.55%K -19.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.72%EV -11.65%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 11:10
Neds🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -17.49%E -3.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.17%EV -7.77%E -5.55%K -19.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.72%EV -11.65%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 11:10
Coral🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -17.49%E -3.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.17%EV -7.77%E -5.55%K -19.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.72%EV -11.65%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 11:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -17.49%E -3.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.17%EV -7.77%E -5.55%K -19.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.72%EV -11.65%E -2.43%K -3.07%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.76%EV -19.85%E -3.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 65.15%EV -8.43%E -6.06%K -21.62%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.09%EV -2.44%E -0.461%K -0.568%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-03 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.