The School of Odds
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Barrow AFC v Gloucester City FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Barrow AFC 0–0 Gloucester City FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barrow AFC (Local)

Prediction 69.54%1.44fair odd
EV -5.42%
Edge -3.99%
Kelly -15.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.30%69.55%69.21%71.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.331.331.3678.74%75.23%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gloucester City FC (Visit)

Prediction 11.89%8.41fair odd
EV +1.06%
Edge +0.125%
Kelly +0.142%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.92%12.03%11.94%15.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.806.816.508.5017.24%14.68%15.38%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.57%5.39fair odd
EV +2.13%
Edge +0.387%
Kelly +0.473%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.46%18.41%18.85%19.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.924.905.5021.74%20.31%20.41%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barrow AFC (Local): 69.54%; Gloucester City FC (Visit): 11.89%; Draw: 18.57%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.39. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.13%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.62%EV -9.60%E -7.38%K -31.99%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.92%EV -22.72%E -3.49%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV +2.13%E +0.387%K +0.473%G +0.010%10.5%2026-10-16 16:55
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -5.42%E -3.99%K -15.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -10.83%E -1.44%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -2.52%E -0.479%K -0.592%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-17 08:20
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%EV -9.60%E -7.38%K -31.99%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV +1.06%E +0.125%K +0.142%G +0.002%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -2.52%E -0.479%K -0.592%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-16 20:39
betano_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%EV -9.60%E -7.38%K -31.99%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV +1.06%E +0.125%K +0.142%G +0.002%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -2.52%E -0.479%K -0.592%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-16 20:38
1xBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.21%EV -11.68%E -9.20%K -43.27%G +0.000%8.05I 12.42%NM 11.23%EV -4.29%E -0.533%K -0.608%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.56%EV -4.37%E -0.849%K -1.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 12:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -6.12%E -4.53%K -17.48%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -4.88%E -0.610%K -0.698%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -9.01%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-16 18:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.43%EV -7.51%E -5.65%K -22.76%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV -16.77%E -2.40%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -9.01%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-16 18:10
Bovada🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.51%EV -9.60%E -7.38%K -31.99%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -10.83%E -1.44%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.44%EV -9.01%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 12:59
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.30%EV -6.12%E -4.53%K -17.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.43%EV -31.04%E -5.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -9.01%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-16 17:25
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.30%EV -6.12%E -4.53%K -17.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.43%EV -31.04%E -5.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -9.01%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-16 17:25
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.30%EV -6.12%E -4.53%K -17.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.43%EV -31.04%E -5.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -9.01%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-16 17:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.30%EV -6.12%E -4.53%K -17.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.43%EV -31.04%E -5.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -9.01%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-16 17:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.30%EV -6.12%E -4.53%K -17.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.43%EV -31.04%E -5.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -9.01%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-16 17:25
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.30%EV -6.12%E -4.53%K -17.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.43%EV -31.04%E -5.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -9.01%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-16 17:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.30%EV -6.12%E -4.53%K -17.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.43%EV -31.04%E -5.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -9.01%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-16 17:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.30%EV -6.12%E -4.53%K -17.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.43%EV -31.04%E -5.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -9.01%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-16 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.30%EV -6.12%E -4.53%K -17.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.43%EV -31.04%E -5.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -9.01%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-16 17:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.30%EV -6.12%E -4.53%K -17.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.43%EV -31.04%E -5.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -9.01%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-16 17:24
betPARX🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.30%EV -6.12%E -4.53%K -17.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.43%EV -31.04%E -5.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -9.01%E -1.84%K -2.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-16 17:25
NordicBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.89%EV -8.90%E -6.79%K -28.71%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.03%EV -1.32%E -0.159%K -0.180%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -10.87%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-16 17:30
Betsson🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.89%EV -8.90%E -6.79%K -28.71%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.03%EV -1.32%E -0.159%K -0.180%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -10.87%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-16 17:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.49%EV -7.51%E -5.65%K -22.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -22.72%E -3.49%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -10.87%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-17 08:19
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.49%EV -7.51%E -5.65%K -22.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -22.72%E -3.49%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -10.87%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-17 08:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.49%EV -7.51%E -5.65%K -22.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -22.72%E -3.49%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -10.87%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-17 08:19
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -9.60%E -7.38%K -31.99%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -10.83%E -1.44%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -11.80%E -2.48%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 10:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.19%EV -7.51%E -5.65%K -22.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -10.83%E -1.44%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -14.58%E -3.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-16 18:10
betfred_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.85%EV -10.29%E -7.98%K -35.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.84%EV -10.83%E -1.44%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -14.58%E -3.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-16 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.