The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Alvechurch FC v Spalding United FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:45 UTC

Final: Alvechurch FC 4–0 Spalding United FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alvechurch FC (Local)

Prediction 32.48%3.08fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -0.857%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.38%32.36%32.32%33.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.762.753.0038.17%36.26%36.36%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spalding United FC (Visit)

Prediction 41.92%2.39fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.12%41.75%42.09%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.192.202.3047.62%45.61%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.61%3.91fair odd
EV -5.26%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.49%25.89%25.59%27.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.433.383.7031.25%29.13%29.63%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alvechurch FC (Local): 32.48%; Spalding United FC (Visit): 41.92%; Draw: 25.61%. For Alvechurch FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -2.57%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -2.57%E -0.857%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -3.59%E -1.56%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -12.94%E -3.81%K -5.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-20 16:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -5.82%E -2.01%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.35%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -6.54%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-20 06:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.36%EV -9.07%E -3.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -11.97%E -5.70%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -5.26%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 06:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -9.07%E -3.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.88%E -4.59%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.38%E -2.96%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-20 06:30
1xBet🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 32.73%EV -10.37%E -3.76%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.70%EV -6.94%E -3.13%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -12.94%E -3.81%K -5.39%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-20 06:30
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -10.69%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-20 09:45
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -10.69%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.03%EV -9.88%E -4.59%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-20 09:50
Bovada🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -10.69%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -9.88%E -4.59%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.38%E -2.96%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-20 09:44
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.56%EV -10.69%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -14.22%E -4.24%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 06:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.56%EV -10.69%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -14.22%E -4.24%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 06:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.56%EV -10.69%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -14.22%E -4.24%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 06:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.56%EV -10.69%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -14.22%E -4.24%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 06:30
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.56%EV -10.69%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -14.22%E -4.24%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 06:30
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.56%EV -10.69%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -14.22%E -4.24%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 06:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.56%EV -10.69%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -14.22%E -4.24%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 06:30
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.56%EV -10.69%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -14.22%E -4.24%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 06:30
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.56%EV -10.69%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -14.22%E -4.24%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 06:26
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.56%EV -10.69%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -14.22%E -4.24%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 06:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.56%EV -10.69%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -14.22%E -4.24%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-20 10:40
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -12.31%E -4.56%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -10.38%E -2.96%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-20 09:44
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -12.31%E -4.56%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -10.38%E -2.96%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-20 09:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -12.31%E -4.56%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -10.38%E -2.96%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-20 09:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -12.31%E -4.56%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -10.38%E -2.96%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-20 09:45
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 32.92%EV -14.91%E -5.69%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.12%EV -9.88%E -4.59%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.96%EV -18.06%E -5.64%K -8.21%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-20 06:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.