The School of Odds
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Altrincham FC v FC United of Manchester

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Altrincham FC 0–0 FC United of Manchester

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Altrincham FC (Local)

Prediction 67.82%1.47fair odd
EV -5.05%
Edge -3.60%
Kelly -12.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.05%67.77%68.18%68.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.351.361.4076.92%73.82%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC United of Manchester (Visit)

Prediction 13.91%7.19fair odd
EV +1.52%
Edge +0.208%
Kelly +0.241%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 7.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.55%13.98%13.64%15.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.196.007.3017.39%16.16%16.67%13.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.27%5.47fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -0.778%
Kelly -0.962%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.32%18.25%18.18%19.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.924.905.2521.74%20.30%20.41%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Altrincham FC (Local): 67.82%; FC United of Manchester (Visit): 13.91%; Draw: 18.27%. For FC United of Manchester (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.19. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.52%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.37%EV -9.12%E -6.80%K -26.81%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.55%EV +1.52%E +0.208%K +0.241%G +0.004%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.09%EV -12.31%E -2.56%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 12:05
NordicBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.37%EV -9.12%E -6.80%K -26.81%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.55%EV +1.52%E +0.208%K +0.241%G +0.004%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.09%EV -12.31%E -2.56%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 12:05
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.05%E -3.60%K -12.62%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV -2.65%E -0.379%K -0.442%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV -4.09%E -0.778%K -0.962%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-17 10:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -7.76%E -5.71%K -21.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -2.65%E -0.379%K -0.442%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -5.00%E -0.962%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 01:39
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -7.76%E -5.71%K -21.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -2.65%E -0.379%K -0.442%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -8.65%E -1.73%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 06:29
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -7.76%E -5.71%K -21.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -2.65%E -0.379%K -0.442%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -8.65%E -1.73%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 06:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -5.05%E -3.60%K -12.62%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -9.61%E -1.48%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -4.09%E -0.778%K -0.962%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-17 10:10
betfred_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.45%EV -11.83%E -9.10%K -39.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.49%EV -9.61%E -1.48%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.06%EV -15.96%E -3.47%K -4.43%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-17 01:35
1xBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.47%EV -9.12%E -6.80%K -26.81%G +0.000%6.42I 15.58%NM 14.08%EV -10.72%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.45%EV -10.48%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 06:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.93%EV -9.12%E -6.80%K -26.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.56%EV -13.08%E -2.09%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.51%EV -5.00%E -0.962%K -1.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 01:33
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.39%EV -8.44%E -6.25%K -24.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.94%EV -16.56%E -2.76%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.67%EV -12.31%E -2.56%K -3.24%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 10:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.39%EV -8.44%E -6.25%K -24.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.94%EV -16.56%E -2.76%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.67%EV -12.31%E -2.56%K -3.24%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 10:35
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.39%EV -8.44%E -6.25%K -24.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.94%EV -16.56%E -2.76%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.67%EV -12.31%E -2.56%K -3.24%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 10:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.39%EV -8.44%E -6.25%K -24.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.94%EV -16.56%E -2.76%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.67%EV -12.31%E -2.56%K -3.24%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 10:35
Bovada🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.56%EV -9.12%E -6.80%K -26.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.86%EV -16.56%E -2.76%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.58%EV -12.31%E -2.56%K -3.24%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 12:59
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.59%EV -9.79%E -7.36%K -29.68%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -16.56%E -2.76%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -13.22%E -2.78%K -3.53%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-17 10:15
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.86%EV -7.76%E -5.71%K -21.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.81%EV -20.04%E -3.48%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.32%EV -4.09%E -0.778%K -0.962%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-17 13:45
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.05%EV -7.76%E -5.71%K -21.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -20.04%E -3.48%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.33%EV -10.48%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:15
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.05%EV -7.76%E -5.71%K -21.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -20.04%E -3.48%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.33%EV -10.48%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:15
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.05%EV -7.76%E -5.71%K -21.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -20.04%E -3.48%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.33%EV -10.48%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.05%EV -7.76%E -5.71%K -21.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -20.04%E -3.48%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.33%EV -10.48%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.05%EV -7.76%E -5.71%K -21.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -20.04%E -3.48%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.33%EV -10.48%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:15
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.05%EV -7.76%E -5.71%K -21.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -20.04%E -3.48%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.33%EV -10.48%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.05%EV -7.76%E -5.71%K -21.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -20.04%E -3.48%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.33%EV -10.48%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.05%EV -7.76%E -5.71%K -21.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -20.04%E -3.48%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.33%EV -10.48%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.05%EV -7.76%E -5.71%K -21.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -20.04%E -3.48%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.33%EV -10.48%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.05%EV -7.76%E -5.71%K -21.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -20.04%E -3.48%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.33%EV -10.48%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:15
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.05%EV -7.76%E -5.71%K -21.55%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -20.04%E -3.48%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.33%EV -10.48%E -2.14%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 13:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.