The School of Odds
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Aldershot Town FC v Tadley Calleva FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aldershot Town FC (Local)

Prediction 85.00%1.18fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -3.49%
Kelly -30.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.79%84.71%85.10%87.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.091.091.1394.34%91.90%91.74%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tadley Calleva FC (Visit)

Prediction 5.19%19.27fair odd
EV +24.56%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.07%
Growth +0.262%

assuming max odds 24.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.82%5.50%4.66%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5015.6314.0024.0010.53%6.40%7.14%4.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.81%10.20fair odd
EV +42.21%
Edge +2.91%
Kelly +3.13%
Growth +1.32%

assuming max odds 14.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.63%9.79%10.23%12.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.009.348.8014.5014.29%10.71%11.36%6.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aldershot Town FC (Local): 85.00%; Tadley Calleva FC (Visit): 5.19%; Draw: 9.81%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.20. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +42.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.02%EV -3.95%E -3.49%K -30.37%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.35%EV -40.31%E -3.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.63%EV +42.21%E +2.91%K +3.13%G +1.32%4.1%2026-10-17 13:39
betano_uk🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.53%EV -9.90%E -9.34%K -164.96%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.03%EV +19.37%E +0.842%K +0.881%G +0.171%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV +7.89%E +0.717%K +0.789%G +0.062%7.8%2026-10-17 13:40
Bet Victor🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.53%EV -9.90%E -9.34%K -164.96%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.03%EV +19.37%E +0.842%K +0.881%G +0.171%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV +7.89%E +0.717%K +0.789%G +0.062%7.8%2026-10-17 13:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.25%EV -6.50%E -5.91%K -64.98%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -50.69%E -5.34%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV +7.89%E +0.717%K +0.789%G +0.062%10.5%2026-10-17 13:39
Neds🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.25%EV -6.50%E -5.91%K -64.98%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -50.69%E -5.34%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV +7.89%E +0.717%K +0.789%G +0.062%10.5%2026-10-17 13:39
Coral🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.25%EV -6.50%E -5.91%K -64.98%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -50.69%E -5.34%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV +7.89%E +0.717%K +0.789%G +0.062%10.5%2026-10-17 13:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.25%EV -6.50%E -5.91%K -64.98%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -50.69%E -5.34%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV +7.89%E +0.717%K +0.789%G +0.062%10.5%2026-10-17 13:39
Bovada🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.90%EV -9.90%E -9.34%K -164.96%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.62%EV -16.96%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -6.83%E -0.718%K -0.803%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 13:43
Codere (IT)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -6.50%E -5.91%K -64.98%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +8.99%E +0.428%K +0.450%G +0.040%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.20%EV -9.77%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 13:40
Betway🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.86%EV -7.35%E -6.74%K -81.64%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.87%EV -1.39%E -0.073%K -0.077%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -11.73%E -1.30%K -1.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-17 13:35
betfred_uk🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.97%EV -8.20%E -7.59%K -102.47%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.83%EV -1.39%E -0.073%K -0.077%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -11.73%E -1.30%K -1.47%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 13:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.59%EV -7.35%E -6.74%K -81.64%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.28%EV -24.74%E -1.71%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -11.73%E -1.30%K -1.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 13:54
NordicBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.75%EV -9.05%E -8.46%K -129.26%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.82%EV +24.56%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.262%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.43%EV -13.69%E -1.56%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 13:45
Betsson🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.75%EV -9.05%E -8.46%K -129.26%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.82%EV +24.56%E +1.02%K +1.07%G +0.262%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.43%EV -13.69%E -1.56%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 13:45
Unibet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.91%EV -7.35%E -6.74%K -81.64%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -27.34%E -1.95%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -16.63%E -1.96%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-16 16:54
TABtouch🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.91%EV -7.35%E -6.74%K -81.64%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -27.34%E -1.95%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -16.63%E -1.96%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-16 16:55
Casumo🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.91%EV -7.35%E -6.74%K -81.64%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -27.34%E -1.95%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -16.63%E -1.96%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-16 16:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.91%EV -7.35%E -6.74%K -81.64%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -27.34%E -1.95%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -16.63%E -1.96%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-16 16:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.91%EV -7.35%E -6.74%K -81.64%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -27.34%E -1.95%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -16.63%E -1.96%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-16 16:55
Grosvenor🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.91%EV -7.35%E -6.74%K -81.64%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -27.34%E -1.95%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -16.63%E -1.96%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-16 16:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.91%EV -7.35%E -6.74%K -81.64%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -27.34%E -1.95%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -16.63%E -1.96%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-16 16:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.91%EV -7.35%E -6.74%K -81.64%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -27.34%E -1.95%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -16.63%E -1.96%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-16 16:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.91%EV -7.35%E -6.74%K -81.64%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -27.34%E -1.95%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -16.63%E -1.96%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-16 16:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.91%EV -7.35%E -6.74%K -81.64%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -27.34%E -1.95%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -16.63%E -1.96%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-16 16:55
betPARX🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.91%EV -7.35%E -6.74%K -81.64%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -27.34%E -1.95%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -16.63%E -1.96%K -2.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-16 16:55
1xBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.60%EV -9.90%E -9.34%K -164.96%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.90%EV +19.37%E +0.842%K +0.881%G +0.171%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.50%EV -23.50%E -3.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 13:40
BoyleSports🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.79%EV -4.80%E -4.28%K -39.98%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.45%EV -37.72%E -3.14%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -31.35%E -4.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 13:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.