The School of Odds
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AFC Rushden and Diamonds v Morecambe

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 13:58 UTC

Final: AFC Rushden and Diamonds 2–1 Morecambe

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AFC Rushden and Diamonds (Local)

Prediction 13.44%7.44fair odd
EV +11.56%
Edge +1.39%
Kelly +1.58%
Growth +0.183%

assuming max odds 8.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.03%13.32%13.44%16.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.236.008.3018.52%16.06%16.67%12.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Morecambe (Visit)

Prediction 68.69%1.46fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -7.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.51%68.78%68.69%71.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.371.351.4178.13%73.24%73.80%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.87%5.60fair odd
EV -6.18%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.35%17.90%17.87%19.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.824.805.2522.22%20.76%20.83%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AFC Rushden and Diamonds (Local): 13.44%; Morecambe (Visit): 68.69%; Draw: 17.87%. For AFC Rushden and Diamonds (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.44. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.56%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯8.30I 12.05%NM 11.03%EV +11.56%E +1.39%K +1.58%G +0.183%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.53%EV -12.08%E -9.44%K -43.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.44%EV -6.18%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 10:50
Betsson🎯8.30I 12.05%NM 11.03%EV +11.56%E +1.39%K +1.58%G +0.183%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.53%EV -12.08%E -9.44%K -43.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.44%EV -6.18%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 10:50
betano_uk🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV +0.807%E +0.108%K +0.124%G +0.001%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -8.64%E -6.50%K -26.19%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -6.18%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 13:00
Bet Victor🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV +0.807%E +0.108%K +0.124%G +0.001%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -8.64%E -6.50%K -26.19%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -6.18%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 13:05
Codere (IT)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -5.91%E -0.845%K -0.986%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.53%EV -5.90%E -4.30%K -15.94%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.06%EV -7.07%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 10:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -5.91%E -0.845%K -0.986%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.58%E -4.84%K -18.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -6.18%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 13:15
betfred_uk🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.58%EV -5.91%E -0.845%K -0.986%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 68.27%EV -11.39%E -8.83%K -39.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.15%EV -17.80%E -3.87%K -4.94%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-17 13:10
BetMGM🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.07%EV -9.27%E -1.37%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.84%EV -3.84%E -2.74%K -9.59%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -6.18%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 13:09
1xBet🎯6.64I 15.06%NM 13.61%EV -10.75%E -1.62%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.95%EV -8.64%E -6.50%K -26.19%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.44%EV -12.44%E -2.54%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 12:55
BoyleSports🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -12.63%E -1.94%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -8.64%E -6.50%K -26.19%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -15.12%E -3.18%K -4.03%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 12:30
Winamax (DE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.56%EV -15.99%E -2.56%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 67.93%EV -7.96%E -5.94%K -23.40%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.51%EV -7.07%E -1.36%K -1.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 09:55
Bovada🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.28%EV -15.99%E -2.56%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.12%EV -8.64%E -6.50%K -26.19%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.60%EV -14.22%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 13:10
Betway🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -19.35%E -3.23%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.47%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.35%EV -6.18%E -1.18%K -1.45%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.94%EV -19.35%E -3.23%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.39%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.77%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.67%EV -14.22%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 13:09
Neds🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.94%EV -19.35%E -3.23%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.39%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.77%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.67%EV -14.22%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 13:09
Coral🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.94%EV -19.35%E -3.23%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.39%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.77%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.67%EV -14.22%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 13:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.94%EV -19.35%E -3.23%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.39%EV -7.27%E -5.39%K -20.77%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.67%EV -14.22%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 13:10
Unibet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -27.42%E -5.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 63.51%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -19.58%E -4.35%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 07:40
TABtouch🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -27.42%E -5.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 63.51%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -19.58%E -4.35%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 07:40
Casumo🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -27.42%E -5.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 63.51%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -19.58%E -4.35%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 07:40
Unibet (SE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -27.42%E -5.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 63.51%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -19.58%E -4.35%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 07:40
LiveScore Bet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -27.42%E -5.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 63.51%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -19.58%E -4.35%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 07:39
Grosvenor🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -27.42%E -5.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 63.51%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -19.58%E -4.35%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 07:39
Virgin Bet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -27.42%E -5.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 63.51%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -19.58%E -4.35%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 07:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -27.42%E -5.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 63.51%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -19.58%E -4.35%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 07:40
Svenska Spel🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -27.42%E -5.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 63.51%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -19.58%E -4.35%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 07:39
ATG (SE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -27.42%E -5.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 63.51%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -19.58%E -4.35%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 07:40
betPARX🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -27.42%E -5.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 63.51%EV -3.15%E -2.23%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -19.58%E -4.35%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 07:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.