The School of Odds
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AFC Fylde v Atherton Collieries AFC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: AFC Fylde 5–0 Atherton Collieries AFC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AFC Fylde (Local)

Prediction 77.28%1.29fair odd
EV -4.17%
Edge -3.37%
Kelly -17.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.00%77.06%76.83%78.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.191.181.2485.47%84.27%84.75%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atherton Collieries AFC (Visit)

Prediction 8.41%11.89fair odd
EV +11.87%
Edge +0.893%
Kelly +0.965%
Growth +0.115%

assuming max odds 13.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.80%8.57%8.51%11.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.0010.129.5013.3012.50%9.88%10.53%7.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.31%6.99fair odd
EV +3.03%
Edge +0.421%
Kelly +0.489%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 7.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.98%14.36%14.66%15.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.446.507.2017.54%15.54%15.38%13.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AFC Fylde (Local): 77.28%; Atherton Collieries AFC (Visit): 8.41%; Draw: 14.31%. For Atherton Collieries AFC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.89. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.87%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.33%EV -9.58%E -8.19%K -56.38%G +0.000%13.30I 7.52%NM 6.80%EV +11.87%E +0.893%K +0.965%G +0.115%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.87%EV -18.43%E -3.23%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-17 13:55
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.41%EV -7.27%E -6.05%K -36.33%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.64%EV +0.939%E +0.078%K +0.085%G +0.001%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -17.72%E -3.08%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 13:54
betano_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.67%EV -8.81%E -7.47%K -48.95%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -3.27%E -0.284%K -0.311%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV +0.169%E +0.024%K +0.028%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-17 13:55
Bet Victor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.67%EV -8.81%E -7.47%K -48.95%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -3.27%E -0.284%K -0.311%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV +0.169%E +0.024%K +0.028%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-17 13:53
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.72%EV -4.17%E -3.37%K -17.39%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -7.47%E -0.679%K -0.747%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV -6.99%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 13:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.53%EV -8.04%E -6.76%K -42.31%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -7.47%E -0.679%K -0.747%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.98%EV +3.03%E +0.421%K +0.489%G +0.015%7.0%2026-10-17 13:55
betfred_uk🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.84%EV -9.58%E -8.19%K -56.38%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -7.47%E -0.679%K -0.747%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-17 13:55
Bovada🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.09%EV -7.27%E -6.05%K -36.33%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.24%EV -17.99%E -1.84%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.67%EV -17.72%E -3.08%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-17 13:50
Unibet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -8.81%E -7.47%K -48.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -20.09%E -2.11%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
TABtouch🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -8.81%E -7.47%K -48.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -20.09%E -2.11%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
Casumo🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -8.81%E -7.47%K -48.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -20.09%E -2.11%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -8.81%E -7.47%K -48.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -20.09%E -2.11%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -8.81%E -7.47%K -48.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -20.09%E -2.11%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
Grosvenor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -8.81%E -7.47%K -48.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -20.09%E -2.11%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -8.81%E -7.47%K -48.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -20.09%E -2.11%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -8.81%E -7.47%K -48.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -20.09%E -2.11%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -8.81%E -7.47%K -48.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -20.09%E -2.11%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -8.81%E -7.47%K -48.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -20.09%E -2.11%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
betPARX🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -8.81%E -7.47%K -48.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -20.09%E -2.11%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -6.99%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:38
BoyleSports🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.00%EV -7.27%E -6.05%K -36.33%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -24.30%E -2.70%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -14.14%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 13:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.16%EV -6.49%E -5.37%K -30.92%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.37%EV -32.71%E -4.09%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.47%EV -3.41%E -0.505%K -0.593%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-17 13:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.