The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sunderland v Chelsea

Kickoff: 2026-11-08 14:00 UTC

Final: Sunderland 1–0 Chelsea

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sunderland (Local)

Prediction 30.95%3.23fair odd
EV +5.22%
Edge +1.53%
Kelly +2.17%
Growth +0.113%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.92%30.84%30.99%32.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.043.043.4036.36%32.92%32.95%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chelsea (Visit)

Prediction 41.58%2.40fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.611%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.59%41.78%41.55%44.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.262.252.3750.00%44.34%44.44%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.47%3.64fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.307%
Kelly -0.425%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.71%27.37%27.46%28.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.443.403.6031.25%29.09%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sunderland (Local): 30.95%; Chelsea (Visit): 41.58%; Draw: 27.47%. For Sunderland (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV +5.22%E +1.53%K +2.17%G +0.113%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -10.60%E -4.93%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 13:35
DraftKings🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.53%EV +0.573%E +0.176%K +0.255%G +0.001%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.65%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -5.23%E -1.51%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-08 13:50
1xBet🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 29.76%EV -0.046%E -0.014%K -0.020%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.31%EV -7.68%E -3.46%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.93%EV -1.93%E -0.540%K -0.750%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-08 13:50
Coolbet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.65%EV -0.974%E -0.304%K -0.443%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.73%EV -2.28%E -0.970%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.62%EV -2.48%E -0.698%K -0.972%G +0.000%2.0%2026-11-08 13:50
Sky Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -0.974%E -0.304%K -0.443%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -10.60%E -4.93%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -3.85%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-08 13:33
Marathon Bet🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 30.52%EV -2.83%E -0.901%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.41%EV -6.02%E -2.66%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.07%EV -2.75%E -0.778%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-08 13:50
Pinnacle🎯3.13I 31.95%NM 31.15%EV -3.14%E -1.00%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 41.14%EV -1.45%E -0.611%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.30%E -0.938%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.6%2026-11-08 13:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.11I 32.15%NM 31.09%EV -3.76%E -1.21%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.68%EV -3.53%E -1.52%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -2.48%E -0.698%K -0.972%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-08 13:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.11I 32.15%NM 31.09%EV -3.76%E -1.21%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.68%EV -3.53%E -1.52%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.24%EV -2.48%E -0.698%K -0.972%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-08 13:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.20%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.16%EV -2.28%E -0.970%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.64%EV -3.85%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-08 13:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.95%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.83%EV -2.28%E -0.970%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.22%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-08 13:48
BetUS🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.83%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.55%EV -4.36%E -1.89%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.62%EV -4.95%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-08 13:39
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.52%EV -4.36%E -1.89%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.68%EV -5.23%E -1.51%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-08 13:48
BetAnything🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.52%EV -4.36%E -1.89%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.68%EV -5.23%E -1.51%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-08 13:50
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -4.36%E -1.89%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-08 13:50
Everygame🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -4.36%E -1.89%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-08 13:47
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -3.85%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 13:50
theScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -3.85%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 13:50
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.05%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -5.23%E -1.51%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-08 13:50
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-08 13:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -4.07%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-08 13:50
GTbets🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 31.02%EV -5.00%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.52%EV -6.85%E -3.06%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -1.10%E -0.307%K -0.425%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-08 13:50
ReBet🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.43%EV -5.31%E -1.73%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.10%EV -2.69%E -1.15%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.48%EV -3.85%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-08 13:50
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.16%EV -5.62%E -1.84%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.14%EV -3.94%E -1.71%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.71%EV -5.77%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-08 13:50
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.14%EV -5.62%E -1.84%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.93%EV -3.53%E -1.52%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 13:50
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.14%EV -5.62%E -1.84%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.93%EV -3.53%E -1.52%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-08 13:50
Betr (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -5.62%E -1.84%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -3.85%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-08 13:50
Bet Right🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -5.62%E -1.84%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -3.85%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-08 13:50
MyBookie.ag🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.23%EV -6.54%E -2.17%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.36%EV -5.19%E -2.28%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.41%EV -5.50%E -1.60%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-08 13:50
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -4.36%E -1.89%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -3.85%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-08 13:44
picklebet_au🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.36%E -1.89%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-08 13:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.36%E -1.89%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-08 13:50
Dabble (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.36%E -1.89%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-08 13:50
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.36%E -1.89%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-08 13:50
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -5.19%E -2.28%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-08 13:50
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-08 13:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-08 13:50
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-08 13:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-08 13:50
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-08 13:50
TAB🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-08 13:48
Caesars🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 41.90%EV -8.10%E -3.67%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.23%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-08 13:50
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.52%E -3.87%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-08 13:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.16%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.52%E -3.87%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-08 13:50
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -8.71%E -2.95%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -5.23%E -1.51%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-08 13:50
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -8.71%E -2.95%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.59%EV -5.19%E -2.28%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-08 13:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -8.71%E -2.95%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -8.52%E -3.87%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -7.97%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-08 13:48
Fliff🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -8.71%E -2.95%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.18%EV -10.60%E -4.93%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -7.97%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-08 13:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -10.26%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.05%EV -8.52%E -3.87%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -2.48%E -0.698%K -0.972%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-08 13:50
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -10.26%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-08 13:50
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -10.26%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-08 13:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -10.26%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-08 13:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -10.26%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-08 13:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.03%EV -10.26%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.26%EV -13.51%E -6.49%K -12.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -3.85%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-08 13:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.53%EV -13.35%E -4.77%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.75%EV -16.83%E -8.42%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.72%EV -12.09%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%17.0%2026-11-08 13:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -14.90%E -5.42%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.99%EV -12.67%E -6.04%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%13.4%2026-11-08 13:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.38%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%0.7%2026-11-08 13:50
Smarkets◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.62%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-11-08 13:50
Matchbook◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.62%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-11-08 13:50
Kalshi◎3.33I 30.03%NM 29.74%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.51%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.74%1.0%2026-11-08 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.58%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-11-08 13:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.58%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-11-08 13:50
Polymarket◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.39%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.12%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.49%1.9%2026-11-08 13:50