The School of Odds
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Manchester United v Manchester City

2026-09-13 15:30 UTC — EPL

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manchester United (Local)

Prediction 30.29%3.30fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -0.481%
Kelly -0.695%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.61%30.30%30.28%32.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.033.003.2535.71%32.99%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manchester City (Visit)

Prediction 44.20%2.26fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.67%44.08%44.19%44.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.112.102.2151.02%47.34%47.62%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.51%3.92fair odd
EV +2.06%
Edge +0.514%
Kelly +0.685%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.84%25.62%25.52%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.683.654.0029.41%27.15%27.40%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Manchester United (Local): 30.29%; Manchester City (Visit): 44.20%; Draw: 25.51%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.92. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.00, producing a positive expected value of +2.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -9.14%E -3.05%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.36%EV -4.97%E -2.31%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV +2.06%E +0.514%K +0.685%G +0.014%4.8%2026-08-30 18:35
1xBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 30.27%EV -1.56%E -0.481%K -0.695%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.51%EV -2.32%E -1.05%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.22%EV -0.495%E -0.127%K -0.171%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-30 13:35
Bovada🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.24%EV -7.62%E -2.50%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.32%EV -4.97%E -2.31%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.43%EV -0.495%E -0.127%K -0.171%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 18:35
Marathon Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.29%EV -3.08%E -0.962%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.47%EV -3.65%E -1.67%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.24%EV -2.03%E -0.528%K -0.713%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-30 12:59
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.70%EV -6.11%E -1.97%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.26%EV -4.97%E -2.31%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -3.05%E -0.802%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 18:40
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -7.62%E -2.50%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.04%EV -4.97%E -2.31%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -3.05%E -0.802%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -9.14%E -3.05%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -4.97%E -2.31%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -3.05%E -0.802%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 18:35
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -9.14%E -3.05%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -4.97%E -2.31%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -3.05%E -0.802%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 18:35
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -9.14%E -3.05%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -7.18%E -3.42%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -3.05%E -0.802%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 18:35
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -9.14%E -3.05%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -7.18%E -3.42%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -3.05%E -0.802%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 18:35
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -9.14%E -3.05%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -7.18%E -3.42%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -4.32%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 18:35
Dabble (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -12.17%E -4.19%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -4.97%E -2.31%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -4.32%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 18:29
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -9.14%E -3.05%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -9.39%E -4.58%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -5.60%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 12:30
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -13.68%E -4.80%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -4.97%E -2.31%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -6.87%E -1.88%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 18:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -3.08%E -0.962%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -4.97%E -2.31%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -8.15%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 18:35
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.11%E -1.97%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -4.97%E -2.31%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.15%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 13:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -6.11%E -1.97%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.18%E -3.42%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -8.15%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 12:30
MyBookie.ag🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.04%EV -6.71%E -2.18%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 44.26%EV -7.63%E -3.65%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -8.15%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 12:35
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.18%EV -7.62%E -2.50%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -8.07%E -3.88%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -8.15%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 19:20
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -9.14%E -3.05%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.18%E -3.42%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.15%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-30 12:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -9.14%E -3.05%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.18%E -3.42%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.15%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-30 12:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -9.14%E -3.05%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.18%E -3.42%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.15%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-30 12:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.75%EV -7.62%E -2.50%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 44.69%EV -10.28%E -5.06%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -9.43%E -2.65%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 12:30
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.11%E -1.97%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -2.76%E -1.26%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -10.70%E -3.06%K -4.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 18:35
ReBet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 30.04%EV -8.53%E -2.82%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.04%EV -8.95%E -4.35%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -10.70%E -3.06%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 12:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.78%EV -10.65%E -3.61%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.37%EV -12.49%E -6.31%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.84%EV -13.25%E -3.90%K -5.52%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-30 12:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.75%EV -15.19%E -5.43%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 43.93%EV -13.37%E -6.82%K -13.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.32%EV -13.25%E -3.90%K -5.52%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-30 12:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.18%2.86I 34.97%NM 30.63%14.2%2026-08-30 18:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.18%2.86I 34.97%NM 30.63%14.2%2026-08-30 18:35
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 31.28%1.82I 54.95%NM 33.69%1.75I 57.14%NM 35.03%63.1%2026-08-30 19:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 53.39%2.18I 45.87%NM 26.45%2.86I 34.97%NM 20.16%73.4%2026-08-30 18:35
Smarkets◎1.26I 79.37%NM 39.93%1.21I 82.64%NM 41.58%2.72I 36.76%NM 18.50%98.8%2026-08-30 18:55