The School of Odds
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Manchester United v Brentford

2026-11-28 15:00 UTC — EPL

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manchester United (Local)

Prediction 45.13%2.22fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -0.957%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.55%45.11%45.22%46.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.842.072.102.1754.35%48.22%47.62%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brentford (Visit)

Prediction 29.56%3.38fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -0.740%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.56%29.54%29.67%30.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.103.103.3035.71%32.25%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.31%3.95fair odd
EV +1.24%
Edge +0.311%
Kelly +0.415%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.59%25.35%25.11%26.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.643.654.0030.30%27.44%27.40%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Manchester United (Local): 45.13%; Brentford (Visit): 29.56%; Draw: 25.31%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.95. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.00, producing a positive expected value of +1.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 45.41%EV -2.08%E -0.957%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.95%EV -2.74%E -0.832%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.64%EV +1.24%E +0.311%K +0.415%G +0.005%1.5%2026-11-09 12:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.45%EV -4.78%E -2.27%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.97%EV -5.40%E -1.69%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.59%EV -1.29%E -0.330%K -0.444%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-09 12:50
Pinnacle🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.28%EV -4.78%E -2.27%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.58%EV -4.51%E -1.40%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.14%EV -3.82%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-09 21:40
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -5.24%E -2.49%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -5.40%E -1.69%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -3.82%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-09 12:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -7.49%E -3.65%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -2.44%E -0.740%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -3.82%E -1.00%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-09 20:59
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -2.98%E -1.39%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -5.08%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-09 21:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -2.98%E -1.39%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.35%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-09 21:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -7.49%E -3.65%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -2.44%E -0.740%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -6.35%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-09 21:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -2.98%E -1.39%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.88%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-09 09:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -5.24%E -2.49%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -11.31%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.88%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-09 07:35
Dabble (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.49%E -3.65%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.88%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-09 07:55
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -5.24%E -2.49%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -11.31%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -10.15%E -2.86%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-09 09:10
ReBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 43.55%EV -5.69%E -2.72%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.14%EV -10.72%E -3.55%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.31%EV -12.42%E -3.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-09 09:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 46.19%EV -16.97%E -9.22%K -20.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.81%EV -12.79%E -4.34%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.00%EV -13.94%E -4.10%K -5.81%G +0.000%17.7%2026-11-09 09:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.87%EV -9.75%E -4.87%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 29.94%EV -13.38%E -4.57%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -15.21%E -4.54%K -6.47%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-09 09:08
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 43.59%EV -11.55%E -5.89%K -12.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.52%EV -17.22%E -6.15%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.89%EV -16.47%E -4.99%K -7.16%G +0.000%17.0%2026-11-09 09:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 43.15%2.86I 34.97%NM 30.02%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.83%16.5%2026-11-09 09:10

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