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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Manchester City v Sunderland

2026-09-20 13:00 UTC — EPL

胜负盘

22 家博彩公司 (7 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Manchester City (主队)

预测 75.08%1.33公平赔率
EV -3.15%
优势 -2.44%
Kelly -10.87%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.29

博彩公司预测分布
71.22%75.24%75.03%77.09%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.211.241.251.2982.64%80.56%80.00%77.52%最小值均值中位数最大值

Sunderland (客队)

预测 9.17%10.90公平赔率
EV +19.27%
优势 +1.48%
Kelly +1.61%
增长率 +0.309%

假设最高赔率为 13.00

博彩公司预测分布
7.23%9.01%9.31%11.89%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
7.2510.3310.5013.0013.79%9.68%9.52%7.69%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 15.75%6.35公平赔率
EV +2.37%
优势 +0.365%
Kelly +0.432%
增长率 +0.010%

假设最高赔率为 6.50

博彩公司预测分布
14.53%15.75%15.66%16.95%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
5.105.805.756.5019.61%17.25%17.39%15.38%最小值均值中位数最大值

对于胜负盘，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)估计各选项的概率为：Manchester City (主队)：75.08%；Sunderland (客队)：9.17%；平局：15.75%。 对于“Sunderland (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为10.90。 有10家博彩公司提供高于该水平的赔率；当前最佳赔率为13.00，由此产生+19.27%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (22 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼平局利润率更新时间
Fanatics🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.09%EV -8.41%E -6.89%K -38.22%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +19.27%E +1.48%K +1.61%G +0.309%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -5.50%E -0.917%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-05 23:05
1xBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 76.49%EV -3.15%E -2.44%K -10.87%G +0.000%12.70I 7.87%NM 7.77%EV +16.52%E +1.30%K +1.41%G +0.233%6.27I 15.95%NM 15.74%EV -1.25%E -0.199%K -0.237%G +0.000%1.3%2026-09-05 23:05
SportsBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.96%EV -7.66%E -6.23%K -33.29%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +10.10%E +0.841%K +0.918%G +0.093%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.15%EV -1.56%E -0.250%K -0.298%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.41%E -6.89%K -38.22%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV +10.10%E +0.841%K +0.918%G +0.093%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -5.50%E -0.917%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-05 23:05
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -6.16%E -4.92%K -24.62%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV +0.921%E +0.084%K +0.092%G +0.001%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -5.50%E -0.917%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-05 23:05
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -6.16%E -4.92%K -24.62%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +0.921%E +0.084%K +0.092%G +0.001%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -13.38%E -2.43%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -6.16%E -4.92%K -24.62%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +0.921%E +0.084%K +0.092%G +0.001%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -13.38%E -2.43%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -6.16%E -4.92%K -24.62%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +0.921%E +0.084%K +0.092%G +0.001%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -13.38%E -2.43%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -6.16%E -4.92%K -24.62%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +0.921%E +0.084%K +0.092%G +0.001%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -13.38%E -2.43%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Sky Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -8.41%E -6.89%K -38.22%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +0.921%E +0.084%K +0.092%G +0.001%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -5.50%E -0.917%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.53%EV -4.65%E -3.66%K -17.24%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -3.67%E -0.349%K -0.386%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -9.44%E -1.64%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-05 23:05
FanDuel🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.94%EV -9.16%E -7.57%K -43.61%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -3.67%E -0.349%K -0.386%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -5.50%E -0.917%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.08%EV -4.65%E -3.66%K -17.24%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -8.25%E -0.825%K -0.917%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.38%EV -2.35%E -0.379%K -0.452%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.16%E -4.92%K -24.62%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -8.25%E -0.825%K -0.917%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -9.44%E -1.64%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-05 23:02
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -6.16%E -4.92%K -24.62%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -12.84%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV +2.37%E +0.365%K +0.432%G +0.010%5.9%2026-09-05 23:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.16%E -4.92%K -24.62%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.83%EV -13.76%E -1.46%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.22%EV -10.23%E -1.79%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-05 23:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.93%EV -7.66%E -6.23%K -33.29%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.83%EV -15.13%E -1.64%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.24%EV -11.80%E -2.11%K -2.57%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-05 23:05
LeoVegas🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.89%EV -6.91%E -5.57%K -28.78%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV -17.43%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -9.44%E -1.64%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-05 23:05
ReBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.36%EV -6.91%E -5.57%K -28.78%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -17.43%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -13.38%E -2.43%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.13%EV -9.16%E -7.57%K -43.61%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.17%EV -20.18%E -2.32%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.70%EV -16.53%E -3.12%K -3.84%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -6.16%E -4.92%K -24.62%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -22.02%E -2.59%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.59%EV -7.08%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 71.22%EV -9.16%E -7.57%K -43.61%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 11.89%EV -33.48%E -4.62%K -5.36%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.90%EV -19.68%E -3.86%K -4.80%G +0.000%16.0%2026-09-05 23:05
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Smarkets◎1.20I 83.33%NM 71.49%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.00%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.51%16.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Kalshi◎1.33I 75.19%NM 33.33%1.33I 75.19%NM 33.33%1.33I 75.19%NM 33.33%125.6%2026-09-06 01:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.24I 80.65%NM 30.92%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.23%1.10I 90.91%NM 34.85%160.8%2026-09-05 23:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.24I 80.65%NM 30.92%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.23%1.10I 90.91%NM 34.85%160.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.24I 80.65%NM 30.92%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.23%1.10I 90.91%NM 34.85%160.8%2026-09-05 23:05