The School of Odds

Manchester City v Bournemouth

2026-08-23 13:00 UTC — EPL

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Head to Head

62 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Manchester City (Local)

Prediction 65.59%1.52fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -6.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.54%65.53%65.57%67.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.341.421.401.4875%71%71%68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Bournemouth (Visit)

Prediction 15.63%6.40fair odd
EV +2.35%
Edge +0.359%
Kelly +0.423%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 6.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.29%15.62%15.68%16.97%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.256.086.256.5519%16%16%15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 18.79%5.32fair odd
EV -0.811%
Edge -0.154%
Kelly -0.190%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.03%18.85%18.75%20.05%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.504.945.005.2822%20%20%19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.48I 67.57%NM 66.39%EV -2.93%E -1.98%K -6.10%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 15.00%EV +2.35%E +0.359%K +0.423%G +0.010%5.28I 18.94%NM 18.61%EV -0.811%E -0.154%K -0.190%G +0.000%1.8%2026-07-22 15:19
NordicBet1.46I 68.49%NM 65.94%EV -4.24%E -2.90%K -9.22%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV +1.57%E +0.241%K +0.285%G +0.004%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.25%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-25 13:35
Betsson1.46I 68.49%NM 65.94%EV -4.24%E -2.90%K -9.22%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV +1.57%E +0.241%K +0.285%G +0.004%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.25%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-25 05:05
SportsBet1.42I 70.42%NM 66.81%EV -6.86%E -4.83%K -16.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +1.57%E +0.241%K +0.285%G +0.004%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.60%EV -4.19%E -0.822%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-23 09:29
Bet Right1.42I 70.42%NM 66.56%EV -6.86%E -4.83%K -16.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV +1.57%E +0.241%K +0.285%G +0.004%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-24 12:05
Tipico (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.36%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV +1.57%E +0.241%K +0.285%G +0.004%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.13%EV -2.31%E -0.445%K -0.551%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-22 10:18
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV +1.57%E +0.241%K +0.285%G +0.004%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-19 11:20
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV +1.57%E +0.241%K +0.285%G +0.004%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-19 13:00
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV +1.57%E +0.241%K +0.285%G +0.004%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-19 13:10
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV +1.57%E +0.241%K +0.285%G +0.004%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-19 13:20
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 66.35%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV +1.57%E +0.241%K +0.285%G +0.004%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -9.83%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-21 17:48
betano_uk1.40I 71.43%NM 66.35%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV +1.57%E +0.241%K +0.285%G +0.004%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -9.83%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-21 17:49
Marathon Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 66.35%EV -4.24%E -2.90%K -9.22%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 15.02%EV +0.787%E +0.122%K +0.144%G +0.001%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.63%EV -2.31%E -0.445%K -0.551%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-22 15:19
BetOnline.ag1.45I 68.97%NM 66.47%EV -4.90%E -3.38%K -10.88%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.18%EV -0.775%E -0.122%K -0.145%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.36%EV -1.38%E -0.262%K -0.324%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-24 10:40
LowVig.ag1.45I 68.97%NM 66.47%EV -4.90%E -3.38%K -10.88%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.18%EV -0.775%E -0.122%K -0.145%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.36%EV -1.38%E -0.262%K -0.324%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-24 10:40
Coolbet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.18%EV -5.55%E -3.86%K -12.62%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.13%EV -1.56%E -0.247%K -0.294%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.69%EV -4.19%E -0.822%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-19 19:30
Betr (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.17%EV -6.86%E -4.83%K -16.34%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-23 09:30
betPARX1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 18:49
Casumo1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 19:10
LiveScore Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 19:10
Unibet (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 19:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 19:10
Svenska Spel1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 19:10
Grosvenor1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 19:20
Virgin Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 19:20
Unibet (NL)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 19:20
TABtouch1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 19:20
ATG (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 19:20
Unibet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 19:30
Hard Rock Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 19:40
BetRivers1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 21:59
Bally Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-20 06:59
PMU (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-16 13:15
PlayUp1.40I 71.43%NM 65.84%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.75%EV -2.34%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -10.77%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 05:05
Bovada1.47I 68.03%NM 64.98%EV -3.59%E -2.44%K -7.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-19 01:03
BetUS1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -5.55%E -3.86%K -12.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 21:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.55%E -3.86%K -12.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -9.83%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-08 17:54
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.55%E -3.86%K -12.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -9.83%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-10 13:25
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.55%E -3.86%K -12.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -9.83%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-11 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.55%E -3.86%K -12.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -9.83%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-10 13:24
theScore Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 64.96%EV -6.21%E -4.34%K -14.44%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -10.77%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-23 09:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-23 09:29
betfred_uk1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-23 17:05
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-23 09:28
Sky Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-23 09:29
FanDuel1.38I 72.46%NM 66.64%EV -9.49%E -6.88%K -24.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.03%EV -4.19%E -0.822%K -1.02%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-23 09:29
Pinnacle1.43I 69.93%NM 65.41%EV -6.21%E -4.34%K -14.44%G +0.000%5.92I 16.89%NM 15.80%EV -7.49%E -1.27%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.98I 20.08%NM 18.78%EV -6.45%E -1.29%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 15:19
Codere (IT)1.47I 68.03%NM 64.62%EV -3.59%E -2.44%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.38%EV -9.37%E -1.62%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.00%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-25 05:05
DraftKings1.43I 69.93%NM 65.16%EV -6.21%E -4.34%K -14.44%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.20%EV -10.15%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-06 11:14
Betway1.43I 69.93%NM 65.16%EV -6.21%E -4.34%K -14.44%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.20%EV -10.15%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.07%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-16 19:40
BetMGM1.44I 69.44%NM 64.37%EV -5.55%E -3.86%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -10.15%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -10.77%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-15 20:54
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 65.01%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -10.15%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.16%EV -10.77%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-16 23:39
Unibet (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 63.74%EV -4.90%E -3.38%K -10.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -14.06%E -2.56%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -10.77%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-22 21:59
LeoVegas1.44I 69.44%NM 63.77%EV -5.55%E -3.86%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -14.06%E -2.56%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.54%EV -11.71%E -2.49%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-25 15:10
Winamax (DE)1.42I 70.42%NM 64.60%EV -6.86%E -4.83%K -16.34%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -14.06%E -2.56%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.72%EV -7.95%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-25 05:05
TAB1.42I 70.42%NM 63.54%EV -6.86%E -4.83%K -16.34%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -14.06%E -2.56%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -15.46%E -3.44%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-25 05:05
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53%NM 65.21%EV -10.80%E -7.94%K -30.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.12%EV -14.06%E -2.56%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -10.77%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%12.8%2026-06-28 17:30
NetBet (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 65.41%EV -12.11%E -9.04%K -35.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.94%EV -14.06%E -2.56%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.65%EV -11.71%E -2.49%K -3.16%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-25 09:04
ReBet1.43I 69.93%NM 63.73%EV -6.21%E -4.34%K -14.44%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -15.62%E -2.89%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -11.71%E -2.49%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-25 05:04
Winamax (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 64.31%EV -7.52%E -5.33%K -18.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.79%EV -15.62%E -2.89%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -9.83%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-25 05:04
Unibet (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 63.92%EV -8.83%E -6.35%K -22.65%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.76%EV -17.18%E -3.24%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.32%EV -13.59%E -2.95%K -3.77%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-25 05:00
Betclic (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 63.65%EV -8.18%E -5.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.97%EV -17.96%E -3.42%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -13.59%E -2.95%K -3.77%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-25 05:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.48I 67.57%NM 66.57%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.49%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.95%1.5%2026-07-25 12:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.46I 68.49%NM 66.87%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.36%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.77%2.4%2026-07-25 09:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.46I 68.49%NM 66.87%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.36%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.77%2.4%2026-07-25 09:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.46I 68.49%NM 66.87%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.36%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.77%2.4%2026-07-25 09:10