The School of OddsManchester City v Bournemouth
Head to Head
Option 1: Manchester City (Local)
Odds
1.3275.76%Min
1.4170.91%Mean
1.4071.43%Median
1.4967.11%Max
Consensus probabilities
61.33%1.631Min
67.81%1.475Max
65.85%1.519Mean
66.04%1.514Median
65.99%1.515IQM
65.91%1.517Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.49 under the IQM model: 65.99%
EV -1.68%Edge -1.12%Kelly -3.42%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Bournemouth (Visit)
Odds
4.5022.22%Min
6.1016.41%Mean
6.2516.00%Median
6.5515.27%Max
Consensus probabilities
14.13%7.079Min
18.67%5.356Max
15.48%6.460Mean
15.35%6.514Median
15.39%6.497IQM
15.44%6.477Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 6.55 under the IQM model: 15.39%
EV +0.822%Edge +0.125%Kelly +0.148%Growth +0.001%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
4.2023.81%Min
4.9820.10%Mean
5.0020.00%Median
5.4018.52%Max
Consensus probabilities
17.58%5.688Min
20.05%4.987Max
18.67%5.357Mean
18.61%5.374Median
18.62%5.371IQM
18.65%5.361Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 5.40 under the IQM model: 18.62%
EV +0.538%Edge +0.100%Kelly +0.122%Growth +0.001%
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Manchester City (Local) | Bournemouth (Visit) ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.48I 67.57% NM 66.39%EV -2.34% E -1.58% K -4.87% G +0.000% | 6.55I 15.27% NM 15.00%EV +0.822% E +0.125% K +0.148% G +0.001% | 5.28I 18.94% NM 18.61%EV -1.70% E -0.321% K -0.396% G +0.000% | 1.8% | 2026-07-02 10:20 |
| betfred_uk | 1.44I 69.44% NM 66.25%EV -4.98% E -3.46% K -11.31% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.68%EV +0.052% E +0.008% K +0.010% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 19.08%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-19 10:10 |
| FanDuel | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.81%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.61%EV +0.052% E +0.008% K +0.010% G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52% NM 17.58%EV +0.538% E +0.100% K +0.122% G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-06-19 10:30 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.42I 70.42% NM 66.56%EV -6.30% E -4.43% K -14.99% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.54%EV +0.052% E +0.008% K +0.010% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.90%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-30 03:00 |
| Coral | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.47%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.53%EV +0.052% E +0.008% K +0.010% G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05% NM 17.99%EV -2.26% E -0.430% K -0.531% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.47%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.53%EV +0.052% E +0.008% K +0.010% G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05% NM 17.99%EV -2.26% E -0.430% K -0.531% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-19 13:10 |
| Caesars | 1.43I 69.93% NM 65.88%EV -5.64% E -3.94% K -13.11% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.49%EV +0.052% E +0.008% K +0.010% G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83% NM 19.63%EV -10.63% E -2.22% K -2.80% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-02 09:52 |
| William Hill | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.87%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.40%EV +0.052% E +0.008% K +0.010% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.72%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-19 11:20 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.87%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.40%EV +0.052% E +0.008% K +0.010% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.72%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-19 13:00 |
| 888sport | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.87%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.40%EV +0.052% E +0.008% K +0.010% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.72%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-19 13:10 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.87%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.40%EV +0.052% E +0.008% K +0.010% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.72%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-19 13:20 |
| SportsBet | 1.36I 73.53% NM 67.51%EV -10.25% E -7.54% K -28.48% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.13%EV +0.052% E +0.008% K +0.010% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.36%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Paddy Power | 1.36I 73.53% NM 67.51%EV -10.25% E -7.54% K -28.48% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.13%EV +0.052% E +0.008% K +0.010% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.36%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.46I 68.49% NM 66.35%EV -3.66% E -2.50% K -7.95% G +0.000% | 6.45I 15.50% NM 15.02%EV -0.717% E -0.111% K -0.132% G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23% NM 18.63%EV -3.19% E -0.613% K -0.759% G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-02 10:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.21%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63% NM 14.70%EV -1.49% E -0.232% K -0.275% G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23% NM 18.09%EV -3.19% E -0.613% K -0.759% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-19 10:30 |
| Neds | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.21%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63% NM 14.70%EV -1.49% E -0.232% K -0.275% G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23% NM 18.09%EV -3.19% E -0.613% K -0.759% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-19 10:30 |
| Coolbet | 1.44I 69.44% NM 66.18%EV -4.98% E -3.46% K -11.31% G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87% NM 15.13%EV -3.03% E -0.480% K -0.571% G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61% NM 18.69%EV -5.05% E -0.990% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-19 19:30 |
| BetMGM | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 12:30 |
| Sky Bet | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 13:20 |
| betPARX | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 18:49 |
| Casumo | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 19:10 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 19:10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 19:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 19:10 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 19:10 |
| Grosvenor | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 19:20 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 19:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 19:20 |
| TABtouch | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 19:20 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 19:20 |
| Unibet | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 19:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 19:40 |
| BetRivers | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 21:59 |
| Bally Bet | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.49%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.89%EV -3.80% E -0.607% K -0.723% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.62%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-20 06:59 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.45I 68.97% NM 65.58%EV -4.32% E -2.98% K -9.59% G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67% NM 15.85%EV -7.64% E -1.27% K -1.53% G +0.000% | 5.12I 19.53% NM 18.57%EV -4.68% E -0.913% K -1.13% G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 11:49 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.45I 68.97% NM 65.58%EV -4.32% E -2.98% K -9.59% G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67% NM 15.85%EV -7.64% E -1.27% K -1.53% G +0.000% | 5.12I 19.53% NM 18.57%EV -4.68% E -0.913% K -1.13% G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-20 11:49 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.42I 70.42% NM 66.46%EV -6.30% E -4.43% K -14.99% G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67% NM 15.73%EV -7.64% E -1.27% K -1.53% G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87% NM 17.81%EV -1.32% E -0.250% K -0.308% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 06:55 |
| Bet Victor | 1.40I 71.43% NM 66.08%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67% NM 15.42%EV -7.64% E -1.27% K -1.53% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.50%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-04 10:04 |
| Pinnacle | 1.43I 69.93% NM 65.54%EV -5.64% E -3.94% K -13.11% G +0.000% | 5.91I 16.92% NM 15.86%EV -9.03% E -1.53% K -1.84% G +0.000% | 5.04I 19.84% NM 18.60%EV -6.16% E -1.22% K -1.53% G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-22 06:39 |
| DraftKings | 1.43I 69.93% NM 65.16%EV -5.64% E -3.94% K -13.11% G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39% NM 16.20%EV -11.49% E -2.00% K -2.42% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.64%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-19 13:10 |
| Everygame | 1.40I 71.43% NM 65.64%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39% NM 15.98%EV -11.49% E -2.00% K -2.42% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.38%EV -6.91% E -1.38% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-03 01:25 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.32I 75.76% NM 66.12%EV -12.89% E -9.77% K -40.29% G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54% NM 15.31%EV -12.26% E -2.15% K -2.61% G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28% NM 18.57%EV -12.50% E -2.66% K -3.38% G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-07-04 17:55 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.49I 67.11% NM 63.69%EV -1.68% E -1.12% K -3.42% G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86% NM 16.95%EV -13.80% E -2.46% K -3.00% G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41% NM 19.37%EV -8.77% E -1.79% K -2.25% G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.45I 68.97% NM 63.74%EV -4.32% E -2.98% K -9.59% G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18% NM 16.80%EV -15.34% E -2.79% K -3.41% G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.46%EV -11.56% E -2.43% K -3.08% G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| TAB | 1.42I 70.42% NM 63.54%EV -6.30% E -4.43% K -14.99% G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18% NM 16.41%EV -15.34% E -2.79% K -3.41% G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.05%EV -16.22% E -3.60% K -4.63% G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-05 12:44 |
| BoyleSports | 1.36I 73.53% NM 65.21%EV -10.25% E -7.54% K -28.48% G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18% NM 16.12%EV -15.34% E -2.79% K -3.41% G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05% NM 18.67%EV -11.56% E -2.43% K -3.08% G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-06-28 17:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.33I 75.19% NM 64.56%EV -12.23% E -9.20% K -37.07% G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18% NM 15.61%EV -15.34% E -2.79% K -3.41% G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09% NM 19.83%EV -19.38% E -4.48% K -5.82% G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-06-19 10:00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.44I 69.44% NM 63.83%EV -4.98% E -3.46% K -11.31% G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52% NM 17.02%EV -16.88% E -3.13% K -3.84% G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83% NM 19.15%EV -10.63% E -2.22% K -2.80% G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.45I 68.97% NM 63.50%EV -4.32% E -2.98% K -9.59% G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23% NM 17.71%EV -19.96% E -3.84% K -4.75% G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41% NM 18.79%EV -8.77% E -1.79% K -2.25% G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| ReBet | 1.45I 68.97% NM 62.73%EV -4.32% E -2.98% K -9.59% G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23% NM 17.49%EV -19.96% E -3.84% K -4.75% G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74% NM 19.77%EV -14.36% E -3.12% K -3.99% G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 62.57%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 17.52%EV -23.04% E -4.61% K -5.76% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 19.91%EV -18.08% E -4.11% K -5.32% G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-07-04 10:09 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 62.57%EV -7.62% E -5.44% K -19.04% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 17.52%EV -23.04% E -4.61% K -5.76% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 19.91%EV -18.08% E -4.11% K -5.32% G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.37I 72.99% NM 61.33%EV -9.59% E -7.00% K -25.93% G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 18.67%EV -30.73% E -6.83% K -8.78% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 20.00%EV -21.80% E -5.19% K -6.81% G +0.000% | 19.0% | 2026-07-04 10:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Manchester City (Local) | Bournemouth (Visit) | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.47I 68.03% | 6.40I 15.63% | 5.10I 19.61% | 3.3% | 2026-07-05 10:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.47I 68.03% | 6.40I 15.63% | 5.10I 19.61% | 3.3% | 2026-07-05 10:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.47I 68.03% | 5.70I 17.54% | 5.10I 19.61% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 10:15 |
| Smarkets | 1.39I 71.94% | 4.80I 20.83% | 4.30I 23.26% | 16.0% | 2026-07-04 13:35 |