The School of Odds

Brighton and Hove Albion v Aston Villa

2026-08-23 13:00 UTC — EPL

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Head to Head

62 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Brighton and Hove Albion (Local)

Prediction 41.83%2.39fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -0.906%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.88%41.90%41.83%43.02%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.102.232.232.3448%45%45%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Aston Villa (Visit)

Prediction 32.23%3.10fair odd
EV +0.223%
Edge +0.072%
Kelly +0.106%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.35%32.18%32.24%33.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.702.882.853.1137%35%35%32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.95%3.85fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.371%
Kelly -0.503%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.73%25.92%25.93%26.90%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.353.613.603.8030%28%28%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.34I 42.74%NM 42.11%EV -2.12%E -0.906%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.68%EV +0.223%E +0.072%K +0.106%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 26.21%EV -2.45%E -0.650%K -0.886%G +0.000%1.5%2026-07-16 00:20
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -0.099%E -0.032%K -0.047%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -9.19%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-19 22:55
BetOnline.ag2.30I 43.48%NM 42.03%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.49%EV -1.07%E -0.347%K -0.515%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.48%EV -5.30%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-20 14:15
LowVig.ag2.30I 43.48%NM 42.03%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.49%EV -1.07%E -0.347%K -0.515%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.48%EV -5.30%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-20 14:15
Marathon Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 42.14%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.67%EV -1.39%E -0.454%K -0.674%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%EV -4.00%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-16 00:10
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 41.72%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.99%EV -3.32%E -1.11%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.29%EV -5.30%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-16 19:12
NordicBet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.93%EV -4.63%E -2.03%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.87%EV -3.32%E -1.11%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.19%EV -5.30%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-24 22:40
Betsson2.28I 43.86%NM 41.93%EV -4.63%E -2.03%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.87%EV -3.32%E -1.11%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.19%EV -5.30%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-24 22:40
Pinnacle2.24I 44.64%NM 42.08%EV -6.30%E -2.81%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.52%EV -3.64%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.40%EV -7.38%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 22:10
Coolbet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.33%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.07%EV -4.29%E -1.44%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.60%EV -3.48%E -0.936%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-19 19:30
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 42.47%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.39%EV -4.93%E -1.67%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.14%EV -1.41%E -0.371%K -0.503%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-08 09:40
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.02%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -4.93%E -1.67%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -1.41%E -0.371%K -0.503%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-08 09:39
Codere (IT)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.27%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73%EV -6.54%E -2.26%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.00%EV -5.30%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-22 21:59
DraftKings2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -6.54%E -2.26%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.89%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 21:54
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -6.54%E -2.26%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.49%E -3.04%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-17 16:24
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -6.54%E -2.26%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.79%E -3.47%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-19 01:05
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -10.07%E -4.68%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -6.54%E -2.26%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.19%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-16 19:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.50%EV -7.19%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.96%EV -2.71%E -0.721%K -0.984%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-09 07:19
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.50%EV -7.19%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.96%EV -2.71%E -0.721%K -0.984%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-08 09:39
William Hill2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -7.19%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-19 11:20
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -7.19%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-19 13:00
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -7.19%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-19 13:10
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -7.19%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-19 13:20
BetUS2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -7.19%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-09 22:50
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -7.19%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -4.00%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-22 13:48
betano_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -7.19%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -4.00%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-22 13:48
Sky Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -7.19%E -2.50%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-08 09:39
Coral2.30I 43.48%NM 40.98%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -7.51%E -2.62%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-11 18:38
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.98%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -7.51%E -2.62%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-11 18:39
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.99%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -1.41%E -0.371%K -0.503%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 04:00
Bet Right2.25I 44.44%NM 41.99%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -1.41%E -0.371%K -0.503%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-13 20:09
Ladbrokes (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 18:39
Neds2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 18:39
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 21:59
Hard Rock Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-19 19:40
betPARX2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -6.72%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-19 18:49
Casumo2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -6.72%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-19 19:10
LiveScore Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -6.72%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-19 19:10
Unibet (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -6.72%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-19 19:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -6.72%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-19 19:10
Svenska Spel2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -6.72%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-19 19:10
Grosvenor2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -6.72%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-19 19:20
Virgin Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -6.72%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-19 19:20
Unibet (NL)2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -6.72%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-19 19:20
TABtouch2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -6.72%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-19 19:20
ATG (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -6.72%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-19 19:20
Unibet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -6.72%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-19 19:30
BetRivers2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -6.72%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-19 21:59
Bally Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -6.72%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-20 06:59
PMU (FR)2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -6.72%E -3.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-16 13:15
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -9.77%E -3.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -2.71%E -0.721%K -0.984%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-21 11:15
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -9.77%E -3.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -4.00%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-20 19:35
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -9.77%E -3.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.19%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 01:49
LeoVegas2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -9.77%E -3.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -6.60%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-22 21:59
TAB2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -9.77%E -3.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -11.79%E -3.47%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-14 13:23
ReBet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 32.57%EV -10.09%E -3.62%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.12%EV -9.71%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-22 21:59
Betclic (FR)2.13I 46.95%NM 41.91%EV -10.91%E -5.12%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.22%EV -10.73%E -3.87%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.49%E -3.04%K -4.28%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-24 13:03
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -11.38%E -4.14%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.09%EV -5.30%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-21 00:09
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -10.07%E -4.68%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -11.38%E -4.14%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -9.19%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-28 17:30
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.99%EV -12.16%E -5.79%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -11.38%E -4.14%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -11.79%E -3.47%K -4.91%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-24 13:04
NetBet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.83%EV -12.16%E -5.79%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.94%EV -11.38%E -4.14%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.22%EV -13.08%E -3.91%K -5.57%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-22 21:59
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.63%EV -10.07%E -4.68%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.15%EV -12.99%E -4.81%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -7.89%E -2.22%K -3.10%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-13 20:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 41.72%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.48%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.81%3.3%2026-07-24 23:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 41.72%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.48%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.81%3.3%2026-07-24 23:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 41.72%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.48%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.81%3.3%2026-07-24 23:20
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 41.83%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.53%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%9.7%2026-07-25 03:30