Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.85
assuming max odds 4.75
assuming max odds 3.86
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bournemouth (Local): 52.54%; Sunderland (Visit): 21.80%; Draw: 25.66%. For Sunderland (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.59. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.56%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.57%EV -3.85%E -2.10%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.64%EV +3.56%E +0.749%K +0.948%G +0.034% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.80%EV -2.50%E -0.659%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.27%EV -3.85%E -2.10%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.74%EV +2.47%E +0.525%K +0.666%G +0.016% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.99%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.84%EV +0.286%E +0.062%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.91%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.34%EV -6.48%E -3.64%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV +0.286%E +0.062%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -6.35%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.34%EV -6.48%E -3.64%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV +0.286%E +0.062%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -6.35%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.34%EV -6.48%E -3.64%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV +0.286%E +0.062%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -6.35%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.86%EV -2.80%E -1.51%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.57I 21.88%NM 21.40%EV -0.368%E -0.081%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.74%EV -2.50%E -0.659%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.72%EV -3.85%E -2.10%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.20%EV -0.804%E -0.177%K -0.227%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.08%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-28 11:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.72%EV -3.85%E -2.10%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.20%EV -0.804%E -0.177%K -0.227%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.08%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-28 11:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.98%EV -2.80%E -1.51%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.53I 22.08%NM 21.63%EV -1.24%E -0.274%K -0.351%G +0.000% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 25.39%EV -0.965%E -0.250%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-02-28 11:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.75%EV -3.32%E -1.81%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%EV -1.89%E -0.421%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.68%EV -3.02%E -0.798%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.38%EV -7.53%E -4.28%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -1.89%E -0.421%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -6.35%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.05%E -4.60%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -1.89%E -0.421%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.61%EV -4.37%E -2.40%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.52%EV -2.98%E -0.671%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.88%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.61%EV -4.37%E -2.40%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.52%EV -2.98%E -0.671%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.88%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -6.48%E -3.64%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.26%EV -2.98%E -0.671%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-28 12:16 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.63%EV -3.32%E -1.81%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.81%EV -3.20%E -0.721%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.55%EV -2.76%E -0.729%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.06%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.61%EV -3.64%E -0.823%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.33%EV -3.27%E -0.869%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 11:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -4.07%E -0.926%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.58%EV -4.07%E -0.926%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 11:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -4.07%E -0.926%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.92%EV -6.35%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -3.85%E -2.10%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -4.07%E -0.926%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -10.20%E -2.91%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 12:16 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -8.05%E -4.60%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -4.07%E -0.926%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -2.50%E -0.659%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.63%EV -4.90%E -2.71%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 4.39I 22.78%NM 21.70%EV -4.29%E -0.978%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.71I 26.95%NM 25.68%EV -4.81%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.53%EV -4.37%E -2.40%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.98%EV -5.16%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.35%EV -4.37%E -2.40%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -5.16%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-28 12:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.30%EV -4.90%E -2.71%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -5.16%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.94%EV -6.35%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-28 12:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.85%EV -5.60%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-28 11:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.20%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -5.60%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 11:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.90%EV -8.05%E -4.60%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -5.60%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.22%EV -4.37%E -2.40%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -6.25%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.68%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.22%EV -4.37%E -2.40%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -6.25%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.68%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.71%EV -3.85%E -2.10%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -6.25%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-28 11:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -6.48%E -3.64%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -6.25%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 11:55 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.54%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.57%EV -6.25%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -11.48%E -3.33%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.99%EV -3.32%E -1.81%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.51%EV -7.34%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.73%EV -3.32%E -1.81%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.40%EV -7.34%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.87%EV -5.58%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.37%E -2.40%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -7.34%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -7.34%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.59%EV -7.00%E -3.96%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -7.34%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -6.35%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -7.00%E -3.96%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -7.34%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.81%EV -3.85%E -2.10%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -8.43%E -2.01%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-28 12:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -8.43%E -2.01%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -2.50%E -0.659%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -8.43%E -2.01%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -8.43%E -2.01%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 11:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -8.43%E -2.01%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 11:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -8.43%E -2.01%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 11:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -8.05%E -4.60%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -8.43%E -2.01%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 11:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -8.43%E -2.01%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -10.20%E -2.91%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -8.43%E -2.01%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -10.20%E -2.91%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.14%EV -4.90%E -2.71%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -10.61%E -2.59%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -2.50%E -0.659%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 11:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -6.48%E -3.64%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -10.61%E -2.59%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.21%EV -6.48%E -3.64%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -10.61%E -2.59%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 11:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.21%EV -6.48%E -3.64%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -10.61%E -2.59%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 11:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.68%EV -9.10%E -5.26%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.92%EV -12.80%E -3.20%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.40%EV -17.90%E -5.59%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-02-28 11:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -5.42%E -3.01%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -14.98%E -3.84%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-28 11:55 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 53.13% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.25% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.61% | 0.1% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 53.13% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.25% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.61% | 0.1% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 53.13% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.25% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.61% | 0.1% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 53.13% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.25% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.61% | 0.1% | 2026-02-28 12:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.02% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.42% | 0.9% | 2026-02-28 12:21 |