The School of Odds
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Bournemouth v Liverpool

2026-09-20 13:00 UTC — EPL

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bournemouth (Local)

Prediction 30.65%3.26fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -0.602%
Kelly -0.875%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.51%30.66%30.69%31.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.013.003.2036.36%33.17%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Liverpool (Visit)

Prediction 44.12%2.27fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.523%
Kelly -0.944%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.90%44.22%44.05%45.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.112.102.2450.51%47.45%47.62%44.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.23%3.96fair odd
EV +0.927%
Edge +0.232%
Kelly +0.309%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.84%25.12%25.26%26.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.713.704.0028.99%26.95%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bournemouth (Local): 30.65%; Liverpool (Visit): 44.12%; Draw: 25.23%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.96. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.00, producing a positive expected value of +0.927%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -4.99%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.40%EV -7.35%E -3.50%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV +0.927%E +0.232%K +0.309%G +0.003%4.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -4.99%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.40%EV -7.35%E -3.50%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV +0.927%E +0.232%K +0.309%G +0.003%4.9%2026-09-05 23:05
1xBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.78%EV -1.93%E -0.602%K -0.875%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.97%EV -1.17%E -0.523%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.25%EV -1.60%E -0.409%K -0.551%G +0.000%1.5%2026-09-05 23:05
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV -4.99%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.13%EV -7.35%E -3.50%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -1.60%E -0.409%K -0.551%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Betr (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.92%EV -6.52%E -2.14%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.90%EV -7.35%E -3.50%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -1.60%E -0.409%K -0.551%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-05 23:05
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.67%EV -7.35%E -3.50%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -1.60%E -0.409%K -0.551%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Marathon Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.75%EV -3.46%E -1.10%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.03%EV -2.94%E -1.33%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.22%EV -3.11%E -0.810%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -7.35%E -3.50%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -4.12%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -9.55%E -4.66%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -4.12%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-05 23:05
Codere (IT)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -4.99%E -1.61%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.00%EV -4.70%E -2.18%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Dabble (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.02%EV -7.35%E -3.50%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -1.93%E -0.602%K -0.875%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -7.35%E -3.50%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -6.64%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -5.14%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.64%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-05 23:02
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.46%EV -9.55%E -4.66%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -6.64%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-05 23:05
MyBookie.ag🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 30.69%EV -7.44%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 43.92%EV -6.91%E -3.27%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.90%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-05 23:04
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.12%EV -9.59%E -3.25%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.72%EV -7.35%E -3.50%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -7.90%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-05 23:05
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.62%EV -11.12%E -3.83%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.26%EV -6.47%E -3.05%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -7.90%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-05 23:05
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -5.14%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -9.17%E -2.55%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 30.43%EV -8.67%E -2.91%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.24%EV -9.55%E -4.66%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.33%EV -9.67%E -2.70%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-05 23:05
ReBet🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 30.70%EV -9.28%E -3.14%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.69%EV -8.23%E -3.96%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -10.43%E -2.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-05 23:05
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -5.14%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.69%E -3.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-05 23:05
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -5.14%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.69%E -3.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-05 23:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -8.06%E -2.69%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -5.14%E -2.39%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.69%E -3.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -11.12%E -3.83%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.23%EV -11.76%E -5.88%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -11.69%E -3.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.39%EV -15.72%E -5.72%K -8.98%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 43.59%EV -12.64%E -6.38%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.02%EV -12.95%E -3.75%K -5.29%G +0.000%15.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 27.45%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.80%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.74%13.8%2026-09-05 23:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 27.45%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.80%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.74%13.8%2026-09-05 23:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 27.77%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.59%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.64%14.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Smarkets◎2.92I 34.25%NM 26.50%1.48I 67.57%NM 52.29%3.65I 27.40%NM 21.20%29.2%2026-09-05 23:35
Kalshi◎1.33I 75.19%NM 33.33%1.33I 75.19%NM 33.33%1.33I 75.19%NM 33.33%125.6%2026-09-06 01:00