The School of Odds
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Arsenal v Manchester City

2026-11-29 16:30 UTC — EPL

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arsenal (Local)

Prediction 45.85%2.18fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.878%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.57%45.87%46.05%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.802.032.052.1455.56%49.37%48.78%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manchester City (Visit)

Prediction 28.42%3.52fair odd
EV -0.523%
Edge -0.149%
Kelly -0.209%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.18%28.48%28.19%29.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.263.273.5034.48%30.66%30.53%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.73%3.89fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.451%
Kelly -0.611%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.89%25.65%25.76%26.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.593.603.8230.30%27.85%27.78%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Arsenal (Local): 45.85%; Manchester City (Visit): 28.42%; Draw: 25.73%. For Manchester City (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.50, with an expected value of -0.523%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 46.05%EV -1.88%E -0.878%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.16%EV -0.523%E -0.149%K -0.209%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.80%EV -1.72%E -0.451%K -0.611%G +0.000%1.5%2026-11-09 12:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -3.71%E -1.77%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -9.05%E -2.83%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -2.24%E -0.589%K -0.799%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-09 21:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -3.71%E -1.77%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -7.63%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -7.38%E -2.05%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-09 12:48
Marathon Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.06%EV -4.63%E -2.23%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.18%EV -3.37%E -0.990%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.76%EV -4.30%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-09 12:50
Pinnacle🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.54%EV -6.01%E -2.93%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.15%EV -3.65%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.31%EV -3.01%E -0.798%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-09 12:50
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -6.01%E -2.93%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -0.523%E -0.149%K -0.209%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -7.38%E -2.05%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-09 13:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.01%E -2.93%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -3.37%E -0.990%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -7.38%E -2.05%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-09 13:24
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.01%E -2.93%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -3.37%E -0.990%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -7.38%E -2.05%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-09 12:50
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -6.01%E -2.93%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -10.47%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -8.67%E -2.44%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-09 12:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.01%E -2.93%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -11.89%E -3.84%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.38%E -2.05%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-09 12:49
ReBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.59%EV -6.46%E -3.17%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 28.97%EV -10.75%E -3.43%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.44%EV -11.50%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-09 12:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -8.30%E -4.15%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -3.37%E -0.990%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -2.24%E -0.589%K -0.799%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-09 12:49
Dabble (AU)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.17%EV -9.22%E -4.65%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.96%E -2.84%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-09 12:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.02%EV -10.59%E -5.43%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.78%EV -13.31%E -4.36%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -13.81%E -4.12%K -5.88%G +0.000%13.9%2026-11-09 12:48
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 44.57%EV -11.97%E -6.23%K -13.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.51%EV -17.58%E -6.06%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.93%EV -15.10%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000%16.9%2026-11-09 12:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.39%EV -17.47%E -9.70%K -21.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.52%EV -11.89%E -3.84%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.09%EV -12.53%E -3.68%K -5.22%G +0.000%17.2%2026-11-09 12:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.95I 51.28%NM 44.17%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.91%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.92%16.1%2026-11-09 12:50

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