The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

York City v Port Vale

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:00 UTC

Final: York City 2–0 Port Vale

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

York City (Local)

Prediction 47.08%2.12fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -3.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.45%47.14%47.15%50.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.971.962.0555.56%50.81%51.02%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Port Vale (Visit)

Prediction 26.18%3.82fair odd
EV +2.09%
Edge +0.535%
Kelly +0.719%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.18%26.09%26.12%27.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.513.503.9030.30%28.49%28.57%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.74%3.74fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.283%
Kelly -0.388%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.40%26.77%26.73%27.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.413.403.7031.25%29.36%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: York City (Local): 47.08%; Port Vale (Visit): 26.18%; Draw: 26.74%. For Port Vale (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.82. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.23%EV -15.26%E -8.48%K -19.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV +2.09%E +0.535%K +0.719%G +0.015%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 13:50
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -7.72%E -3.94%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.85%EV +0.253%E +0.066%K +0.089%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.59%EV -4.26%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 13:35
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -10.08%E -5.28%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -0.532%E -0.140%K -0.190%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 13:40
SportsBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.74%EV -11.02%E -5.83%K -12.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -1.84%E -0.491%K -0.670%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -7.73%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 13:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -10.55%E -5.55%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -1.84%E -0.491%K -0.670%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 13:50
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -10.08%E -5.28%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -3.15%E -0.851%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -1.05%E -0.283%K -0.388%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 13:44
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.36%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.68%EV -5.06%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 13:40
picklebet_au🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -3.49%E -1.70%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 13:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.72%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-21 09:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -3.49%E -1.70%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-24 04:14
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -3.49%E -1.70%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-24 04:14
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 04:15
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 04:14
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -3.72%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 13:31
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -6.78%E -3.42%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-21 10:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -6.78%E -3.42%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 13:50
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -7.08%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 13:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -7.08%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 13:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -7.08%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 13:35
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.73%EV -6.78%E -3.42%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -7.08%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 10:50
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.73%EV -6.78%E -3.42%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -7.08%E -1.99%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 10:50
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.24%EV -7.72%E -3.94%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.15%EV -7.34%E -2.07%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.61%EV -6.93%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-21 09:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.42%EV -8.66%E -4.47%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.14%EV -7.86%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.44%EV -6.93%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-21 09:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.24%EV -4.90%E -2.42%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -7.73%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-19 14:05
Neds🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -4.90%E -2.42%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -10.41%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 04:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -4.90%E -2.42%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -10.41%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 04:15
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-21 09:19
Bet Right🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.73%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-23 07:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-21 10:55
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.75%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -10.41%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 13:50
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -10.08%E -5.28%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -8.39%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 13:35
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -4.90%E -2.42%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -9.69%E -2.81%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -10.41%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 13:50
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 13:40
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 13:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 13:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 13:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.82%EV -6.78%E -3.42%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 13:55
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -10.08%E -5.28%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-21 06:55
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.95%EV -7.25%E -3.68%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-19 14:05
Casumo🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.07%EV -7.72%E -3.94%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 14:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.07%EV -7.72%E -3.94%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 14:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.07%EV -7.72%E -3.94%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 14:05
TABtouch🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.07%EV -7.72%E -3.94%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 14:05
betPARX🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.07%EV -7.72%E -3.94%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 14:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.07%EV -7.72%E -3.94%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 14:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.07%EV -7.72%E -3.94%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 14:05
BetRivers🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.07%EV -7.72%E -3.94%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 14:10
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.64%EV -6.78%E -3.42%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -12.31%E -3.68%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 13:50
Grosvenor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.02%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.79%EV -12.31%E -3.68%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.19%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-19 14:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.02%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.79%EV -12.31%E -3.68%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.19%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-19 14:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.15%EV -8.66%E -4.47%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.72%EV -12.31%E -3.68%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-19 14:05
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -10.08%E -5.28%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -13.62%E -4.13%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-23 06:55
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.45%EV -8.19%E -4.20%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.86%EV -13.62%E -4.13%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.70%EV -14.42%E -4.51%K -6.55%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 04:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.65%1.4%2026-10-24 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.65%1.4%2026-10-24 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.65%1.4%2026-10-24 13:55
Matchbook◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.43%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.99%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.58%1.7%2026-10-24 13:55
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.94%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.87%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.19%2.2%2026-10-24 13:50

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