The School of Odds
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Walsall v Crawley Town

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Walsall (Local)

Prediction 56.88%1.76fair odd
EV -6.15%
Edge -3.73%
Kelly -9.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.13%56.88%56.88%57.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.611.611.6562.50%61.97%62.11%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Crawley Town (Visit)

Prediction 19.85%5.04fair odd
EV -5.72%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.62%19.85%19.85%20.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.554.504.7522.22%21.98%22.22%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.27%4.30fair odd
EV -5.74%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.76%23.27%23.27%23.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.843.804.0526.32%26.05%26.32%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Walsall (Local): 56.88%; Crawley Town (Visit): 19.85%; Draw: 23.27%. For Crawley Town (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.75, with an expected value of -5.72%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LiveScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.65%EV -6.15%E -3.73%K -9.47%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -5.72%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.67%EV -8.07%E -2.04%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-29 09:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.65%EV -6.15%E -3.73%K -9.47%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -5.72%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.67%EV -8.07%E -2.04%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-29 09:15
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.13%EV -8.43%E -5.23%K -13.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -10.68%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -11.56%E -3.04%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-29 09:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.13%EV -8.43%E -5.23%K -13.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -10.68%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -11.56%E -3.04%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-29 09:15
TABtouch🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.13%EV -8.43%E -5.23%K -13.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -10.68%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -11.56%E -3.04%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-29 09:15
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.13%EV -8.43%E -5.23%K -13.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -10.68%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -11.56%E -3.04%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-29 09:15
Casumo🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.13%EV -8.43%E -5.23%K -13.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -10.68%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -11.56%E -3.04%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-29 09:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.13%EV -8.43%E -5.23%K -13.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -10.68%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -11.56%E -3.04%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-29 09:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.13%EV -8.43%E -5.23%K -13.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -10.68%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -11.56%E -3.04%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-29 09:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.13%EV -8.43%E -5.23%K -13.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -10.68%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -11.56%E -3.04%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-29 09:15
betPARX🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.13%EV -8.43%E -5.23%K -13.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -10.68%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -11.56%E -3.04%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-29 09:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -9.00%E -5.62%K -14.99%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.62%EV -6.71%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.76%EV -5.74%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-29 09:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.29%EV -9.00%E -5.62%K -14.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -10.68%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -11.56%E -3.04%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-29 09:15
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.29%EV -9.00%E -5.62%K -14.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -10.68%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -11.56%E -3.04%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-29 09:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.