Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Walsall v Crawley Town

2026-10-03 14:00 UTC — League 2

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Walsall (Local)

Prediction 54.47%1.84fair odd
EV -5.77%
Edge -3.34%
Kelly -7.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.73%54.52%54.44%55.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.691.691.7360.24%59.17%59.17%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Crawley Town (Visit)

Prediction 22.74%4.40fair odd
EV +0.066%
Edge +0.015%
Kelly +0.019%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.45%22.69%22.74%23.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.124.104.4025.64%24.29%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.79%4.39fair odd
EV -4.28%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.31%22.78%22.83%23.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.034.004.2026.32%24.80%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Walsall (Local): 54.47%; Crawley Town (Visit): 22.74%; Draw: 22.79%. For Crawley Town (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.397. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.400, producing a positive expected value of +0.066%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.52%EV -7.41%E -4.36%K -10.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV +0.066%E +0.015%K +0.019%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -6.56%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-26 15:40
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.64%EV -7.41%E -4.36%K -10.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV -1.53%E -0.352%K -0.458%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -4.28%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-26 15:25
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -8.49%E -5.06%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -2.21%E -0.514%K -0.669%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.28%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-26 15:40
SportsBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%EV -9.04%E -5.41%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -3.35%E -0.787%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -8.84%E -2.21%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-26 15:39
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -9.04%E -5.41%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -4.48%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -8.84%E -2.21%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 15:20
Bet Right🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.24%EV -9.58%E -5.77%K -14.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -4.48%E -1.07%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -8.84%E -2.21%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-26 15:40
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.99%EV -7.41%E -4.36%K -10.58%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 22.69%EV -6.30%E -1.53%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.31%EV -4.51%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-26 16:00
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.50%EV -7.95%E -4.70%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -6.76%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -8.84%E -2.21%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-26 15:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.81%EV -8.49%E -5.06%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -6.76%E -1.65%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.73%EV -7.70%E -1.90%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-26 15:19
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.48%EV -7.41%E -4.36%K -10.58%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 22.65%EV -6.98%E -1.71%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.87%EV -7.70%E -1.90%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-26 16:00
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -5.77%E -3.34%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -9.03%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -6.56%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-26 15:20
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.50%EV -7.95%E -4.70%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.03%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -6.56%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-26 19:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.41%E -4.36%K -10.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.03%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -8.84%E -2.21%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-26 15:20
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -7.41%E -4.36%K -10.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.03%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -11.12%E -2.85%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-26 16:05
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -7.41%E -4.36%K -10.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.03%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -11.12%E -2.85%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-26 16:05
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.85%EV -9.04%E -5.41%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -9.03%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -13.40%E -3.53%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-26 15:43
Codere (IT)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.73%EV -7.95%E -4.70%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -11.30%E -2.90%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.99%EV -9.98%E -2.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-26 15:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-26 16:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-26 16:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-09-26 16:45