The School of Odds
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Swindon Town v Walsall

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Swindon Town 1–1 Walsall

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Swindon Town (Local)

Prediction 34.58%2.89fair odd
EV -0.399%
Edge -0.138%
Kelly -0.212%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.54%34.45%34.55%36.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.682.702.8840.00%37.38%37.04%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Walsall (Visit)

Prediction 38.73%2.58fair odd
EV -5.11%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%38.89%38.67%41.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.382.382.4545.45%42.00%42.02%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.69%3.75fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.63%26.65%26.79%28.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.443.443.6030.30%29.08%29.07%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Swindon Town (Local): 34.58%; Walsall (Visit): 38.73%; Draw: 26.69%. For Swindon Town (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.89. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.88, with an expected value of -0.399%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.26%EV -0.399%E -0.138%K -0.212%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.91%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.83%EV -4.73%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-17 13:50
Pinnacle🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.26%EV -0.744%E -0.259%K -0.398%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.93%EV -7.43%E -3.11%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.81%EV -5.00%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-17 13:55
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -3.17%E -1.13%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 13:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -3.17%E -1.13%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -14.79%E -6.72%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 12:30
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.89%E -1.78%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 13:25
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.89%E -1.78%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 13:25
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -4.89%E -1.78%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -10.92%E -4.75%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 13:50
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -4.89%E -1.78%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.27%EV -6.27%E -2.59%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -11.94%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 13:55
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -4.89%E -1.78%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.27%EV -6.27%E -2.59%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -11.94%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 13:55
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -4.89%E -1.78%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%EV -8.98%E -3.82%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -10.61%E -3.17%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 13:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -4.89%E -1.78%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.92%E -4.75%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.94%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.34%EV -5.93%E -2.18%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59%EV -6.27%E -2.59%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 13:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.34%EV -5.93%E -2.18%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59%EV -6.27%E -2.59%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 13:25
picklebet_au🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -6.62%E -2.45%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -5.11%E -2.09%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 11:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -6.62%E -2.45%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -5.11%E -2.09%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-16 03:30
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -6.62%E -2.45%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -5.11%E -2.09%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-17 13:28
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -6.62%E -2.45%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -5.11%E -2.09%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-17 13:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.62%E -2.45%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 13:25
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.62%E -2.45%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 13:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.62%E -2.45%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 13:25
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -6.62%E -2.45%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -6.62%E -2.45%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.40%EV -5.88%E -2.42%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 11:20
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.41%EV -6.62%E -2.45%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.04%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 13:25
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -6.62%E -2.45%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -8.98%E -3.82%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 13:34
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -6.62%E -2.45%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.94%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-17 13:30
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -6.62%E -2.45%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.94%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-17 13:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -6.62%E -2.45%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.94%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-17 13:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -6.62%E -2.45%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.94%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-17 13:30
1xBet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 34.23%EV -6.97%E -2.59%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.01%EV -8.59%E -3.64%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.76%EV -8.20%E -2.38%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 13:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 34.23%EV -6.97%E -2.59%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.01%EV -8.59%E -3.64%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.76%EV -8.20%E -2.38%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 13:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -8.35%E -3.15%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -5.11%E -2.09%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 13:25
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -8.35%E -3.15%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -5.11%E -2.09%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 13:40
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -8.35%E -3.15%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-16 03:35
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -8.35%E -3.15%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.79%EV -8.98%E -3.82%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 13:35
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -8.35%E -3.15%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.48%EV -8.98%E -3.82%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -11.94%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 13:54
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -9.39%E -3.58%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -3.93%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 13:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -10.08%E -3.88%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 13:25
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.25%EV -10.08%E -3.88%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.19%EV -7.05%E -2.94%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 13:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.86%EV -10.08%E -3.88%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.08%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.06%EV -10.61%E -3.17%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-17 11:20
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.86%EV -10.08%E -3.88%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.08%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.06%EV -10.61%E -3.17%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-17 11:20
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.86%EV -10.08%E -3.88%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.08%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.06%EV -10.61%E -3.17%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-17 11:20
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.86%EV -10.08%E -3.88%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.08%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.06%EV -10.61%E -3.17%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-17 11:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.86%EV -10.08%E -3.88%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.08%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.06%EV -10.61%E -3.17%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-17 11:20
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.86%EV -10.08%E -3.88%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.08%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.06%EV -10.61%E -3.17%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-17 11:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.86%EV -10.08%E -3.88%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.08%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.06%EV -10.61%E -3.17%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-17 11:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.86%EV -10.08%E -3.88%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.08%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.06%EV -10.61%E -3.17%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-17 11:20
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.86%EV -10.08%E -3.88%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.08%EV -7.82%E -3.29%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.06%EV -10.61%E -3.17%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-17 11:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -10.08%E -3.88%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -8.98%E -3.82%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-16 03:35
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.69%EV -10.08%E -3.88%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.38%EV -8.98%E -3.82%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -10.61%E -3.17%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-17 11:20
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -10.08%E -3.88%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -12.85%E -5.71%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 13:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -11.81%E -4.63%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.97%EV -8.98%E -3.82%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -11.94%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 11:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -11.81%E -4.63%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.97%EV -8.98%E -3.82%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -11.94%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-17 11:20
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -13.54%E -5.42%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.29%EV -8.98%E -3.82%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-13 17:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.09%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%0.7%2026-10-17 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.09%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%0.7%2026-10-17 13:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.09%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%0.7%2026-10-17 13:55
Matchbook◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.24%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14%1.0%2026-10-17 13:50
Smarkets◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.54%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.44%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.02%1.4%2026-10-17 13:45