The School of Odds
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Swindon Town v Rotherham United

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 15:00 UTC

Final: Swindon Town 2–1 Rotherham United

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Swindon Town (Local)

Prediction 42.66%2.34fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.93%42.72%42.69%45.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.182.202.2850.76%45.94%45.45%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rotherham United (Visit)

Prediction 31.15%3.21fair odd
EV -0.010%
Edge -0.003%
Kelly -0.005%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.26%31.02%31.15%33.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.942.953.2136.36%33.98%33.90%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.19%3.82fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -0.836%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.98%26.26%26.16%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.483.503.7030.30%28.72%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Swindon Town (Local): 42.66%; Rotherham United (Visit): 31.15%; Draw: 26.19%. For Rotherham United (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.2103. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.2100, with an expected value of -0.010%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -2.74%E -1.20%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.53%EV -10.29%E -3.57%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-26 15:10
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -4.02%E -1.79%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-31 14:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.02%E -1.79%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -8.11%E -2.75%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 14:40
picklebet_au🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -3.44%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-31 14:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 14:40
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 14:39
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 14:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-31 14:40
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -8.11%E -2.75%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 14:40
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -8.11%E -2.75%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 14:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -8.11%E -2.75%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-31 14:40
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -3.09%E -0.836%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 10:14
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -10.29%E -3.57%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 14:40
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -13.57%E -4.11%K -5.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 14:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -13.57%E -4.11%K -5.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 14:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -13.57%E -4.11%K -5.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 14:40
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -13.57%E -4.11%K -5.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 14:40
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.66%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.16%EV -11.22%E -3.94%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 14:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.66%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.16%EV -11.22%E -3.94%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 14:40
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.67%E -3.33%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 14:40
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-26 15:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-26 15:09
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-26 15:09
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-26 15:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-26 15:10
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-26 15:10
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-26 15:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-26 15:10
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-26 15:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -6.15%E -2.80%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-26 15:10
BetUS🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.78%EV -6.58%E -3.00%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.96%EV -0.321%E -0.100%K -0.146%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.27%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-31 14:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.94%EV -7.00%E -3.21%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-31 14:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.94%EV -7.00%E -3.21%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-31 14:40
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -7.00%E -3.21%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-31 14:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.93%EV -7.00%E -3.21%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -14.34%E -5.21%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -12.26%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-26 15:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.93%EV -7.00%E -3.21%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -14.34%E -5.21%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -12.26%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-26 15:10
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.43%E -3.42%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.77%EV -0.010%E -0.003%K -0.005%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.18%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-31 14:40
1xBet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.87%EV -7.86%E -3.64%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.67%EV -5.93%E -1.96%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 14:40
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -3.44%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 14:45
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-31 14:39
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.95%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -9.64%E -2.79%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 14:45
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.95%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -9.64%E -2.79%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-31 14:45
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -8.11%E -2.75%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -9.64%E -2.79%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-31 14:40
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-31 14:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.02%EV -8.71%E -4.07%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-31 14:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 42.75%EV -9.14%E -4.29%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -8.11%E -2.75%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -9.64%E -2.79%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-31 14:40
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -9.56%E -4.51%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -3.44%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 14:40
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.47%EV -9.56%E -4.51%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -9.67%E -3.33%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-31 14:45
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -10.42%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -3.44%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-31 14:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -10.42%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -3.44%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 14:45
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -10.42%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-31 14:40
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -10.42%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-31 14:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.90%EV -15.96%E -8.10%K -16.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -0.321%E -0.100%K -0.146%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-31 14:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 43.97%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.40%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62%1.5%2026-10-31 14:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 43.97%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.40%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62%1.5%2026-10-31 14:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 43.97%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.40%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62%1.5%2026-10-31 14:40
Matchbook◎2.24I 44.64%NM 43.97%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.40%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62%1.5%2026-10-31 14:40
Smarkets◎2.24I 44.64%NM 43.62%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.61%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.77%2.3%2026-10-31 14:45