Language:English
Swindon Town v Crewe Alexandra
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Swindon Town (Local)
Prediction 37.55%2.66fair odd
EV -4.62%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -3.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.69%37.64%37.51%39.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.422.452.5443.86%41.33%40.82%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Crewe Alexandra (Visit)
Prediction 35.59%2.81fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.774%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.86%35.46%35.57%36.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.612.622.7540.00%38.26%38.17%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.86%3.72fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -0.919%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.71%26.90%26.91%28.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.413.403.6030.77%29.29%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Swindon Town (Local): 37.55%; Crewe Alexandra (Visit): 35.59%; Draw: 26.86%. For Crewe Alexandra (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -2.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.12%EV -4.62%E -1.82%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.31%EV -4.98%E -1.86%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.57%EV -8.14%E -2.38%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 15:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.69%EV -5.37%E -2.13%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.29%EV -6.75%E -2.58%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-04 11:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.69%EV -5.37%E -2.13%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.29%EV -6.75%E -2.58%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-04 11:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.76%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.03%EV -6.75%E -2.58%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -3.31%E -0.919%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-05 06:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -5.69%E -2.15%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-05 11:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -6.75%E -2.58%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 07:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -6.75%E -2.58%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 07:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -7.47%E -2.87%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 07:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.47%E -2.87%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 06:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.47%E -2.87%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 07:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.47%E -2.87%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-05 07:31 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.93%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -7.47%E -2.87%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-03 20:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -6.75%E -2.58%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-05 07:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -6.75%E -2.58%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-05 07:36 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -6.75%E -2.58%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-05 07:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -6.75%E -2.58%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-05 07:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 37.41%EV -7.62%E -3.10%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 35.53%EV -7.82%E -3.02%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-05 10:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 37.41%EV -7.62%E -3.10%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 35.53%EV -7.82%E -3.02%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-03 15:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -8.00%E -3.26%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -5.69%E -2.15%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -3.31%E -0.919%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-05 06:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28%EV -8.00%E -3.26%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.66%EV -6.40%E -2.43%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -3.31%E -0.919%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-05 07:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.00%E -3.26%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -7.47%E -2.87%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -3.31%E -0.919%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-05 06:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.00%E -3.26%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -9.25%E -3.63%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 11:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -8.00%E -3.26%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -7.47%E -2.87%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-05 10:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -8.00%E -3.26%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -7.47%E -2.87%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-05 12:14 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -8.00%E -3.26%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -9.25%E -3.63%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 04:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -8.00%E -3.26%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -9.25%E -3.63%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 04:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -8.75%E -3.60%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.58%EV -9.25%E -3.63%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.08%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-05 06:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.75%E -2.58%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.31%E -0.919%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 11:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.47%E -2.87%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-03 15:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.19%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.25%EV -7.47%E -2.87%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-05 06:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -9.25%E -3.63%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-05 06:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -11.03%E -4.41%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-03 15:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.47%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -9.25%E -3.63%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -11.37%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-05 11:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -10.63%E -4.47%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -2.13%E -0.774%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 11:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -10.63%E -4.47%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -2.13%E -0.774%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 11:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -10.63%E -4.47%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -11.03%E -4.41%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-05 06:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.79%EV -11.75%E -5.00%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -5.69%E -2.15%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-05 12:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.29%EV -11.75%E -5.00%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.03%E -4.41%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 06:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -13.63%E -5.93%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -5.69%E -2.15%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 11:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -13.63%E -5.93%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -5.69%E -2.15%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 11:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -13.63%E -5.93%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -5.69%E -2.15%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 11:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -13.63%E -5.93%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -5.69%E -2.15%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 11:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -13.63%E -5.93%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -5.69%E -2.15%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 11:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -13.63%E -5.93%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -5.69%E -2.15%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 11:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -13.63%E -5.93%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -5.69%E -2.15%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 11:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -13.63%E -5.93%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -5.69%E -2.15%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 11:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -13.63%E -5.93%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -5.69%E -2.15%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 11:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -13.63%E -5.93%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -5.69%E -2.15%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-05 11:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.35%EV -14.38%E -6.31%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.86%EV -5.69%E -2.15%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.78%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-05 11:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.08% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.51% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41% | 3.7% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.08% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.51% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41% | 3.7% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.80% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.24% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95% | 4.5% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 36.82% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.25% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93% | 6.1% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |