Language:English
Swindon Town v Accrington Stanley
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Swindon Town (Local)
Prediction 43.38%2.31fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.46%43.38%43.41%44.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.132.112.2548.78%46.89%47.39%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Accrington Stanley (Visit)
Prediction 29.71%3.37fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.594%
Kelly -0.853%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.93%29.62%29.75%31.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.123.143.3034.48%32.05%31.85%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.91%3.72fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -0.868%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.80%26.99%26.84%28.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.373.403.6031.75%29.66%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Swindon Town (Local): 43.38%; Accrington Stanley (Visit): 29.71%; Draw: 26.91%. For Accrington Stanley (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -1.96%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -2.39%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-26 13:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -2.39%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-26 13:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -2.39%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-26 13:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -2.39%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-26 13:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -2.39%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-26 13:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.79%EV -3.26%E -1.46%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.48%EV -7.01%E -2.24%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.73%EV -3.93%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-26 12:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.12%E -0.868%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.12%E -0.868%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.22%EV -7.31%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-25 12:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -4.56%E -2.07%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-26 12:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.61%EV -5.43%E -2.49%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -9.39%E -3.08%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -7.16%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-26 13:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.10%EV -5.86%E -2.70%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -4.93%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -4.47%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.93%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -6.42%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -9.39%E -3.08%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -9.85%E -2.94%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -6.73%E -3.13%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -12.54%E -3.86%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV -7.16%E -3.35%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -1.96%E -0.594%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-23 15:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV -7.16%E -3.35%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -1.96%E -0.594%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-23 15:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.58%EV -8.03%E -3.79%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -3.45%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.91%EV -8.03%E -3.79%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-25 13:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -8.90%E -4.24%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -3.45%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -7.16%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -8.90%E -4.24%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -3.45%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -7.16%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -8.90%E -4.24%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -4.93%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -8.90%E -4.24%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -3.12%E -0.868%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-26 13:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.11%EV -8.90%E -4.24%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.13%EV -5.53%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 26.77%EV -6.89%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.90%E -4.24%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -4.93%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-26 13:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.90%E -4.24%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -4.93%E -1.54%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.53%EV -8.90%E -4.24%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -9.39%E -3.08%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -7.16%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.90%E -4.24%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-24 10:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -8.90%E -4.24%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -13.84%E -4.77%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.81%EV -9.77%E -4.70%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.39%EV -7.90%E -2.55%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.80%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-26 13:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.28%EV -9.77%E -4.70%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -6.42%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -13.89%E -4.34%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-23 15:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.28%EV -9.77%E -4.70%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -6.42%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -13.89%E -4.34%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-23 15:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.28%EV -9.77%E -4.70%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -6.42%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -13.89%E -4.34%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-23 15:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.28%EV -9.77%E -4.70%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -6.42%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -13.89%E -4.34%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-23 15:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.28%EV -9.77%E -4.70%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -6.42%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -13.89%E -4.34%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-23 15:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.28%EV -9.77%E -4.70%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -6.42%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -13.89%E -4.34%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-23 15:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.28%EV -9.77%E -4.70%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -6.42%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -13.89%E -4.34%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-23 15:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.28%EV -9.77%E -4.70%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -6.42%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -13.89%E -4.34%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-23 15:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.28%EV -9.77%E -4.70%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -6.42%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -13.89%E -4.34%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-23 15:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.46%EV -10.20%E -4.93%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 28.94%EV -5.53%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 26.60%EV -6.89%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.40%EV -10.20%E -4.93%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -6.42%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -13.89%E -4.34%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-23 15:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -11.07%E -5.40%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -1.96%E -0.594%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -11.07%E -5.40%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.87%E -3.62%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -11.07%E -5.40%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.28%EV -6.42%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.28%EV -15.23%E -4.84%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-23 15:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.76% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85% | 0.6% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.35% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85% | 0.7% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.35% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85% | 0.7% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.35% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85% | 0.7% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.19% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12% | 1.0% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |