Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Salford City v Fleetwood Town

2026-10-03 14:00 UTC — League 2

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Salford City (Local)

Prediction 51.58%1.94fair odd
EV -4.57%
Edge -2.47%
Kelly -5.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.62%52.02%51.12%55.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.771.781.8560.61%56.46%56.18%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fleetwood Town (Visit)

Prediction 23.63%4.23fair odd
EV +6.33%
Edge +1.41%
Kelly +1.81%
Growth +0.114%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.50%23.07%23.97%24.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.034.004.5026.67%24.82%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.79%4.03fair odd
EV -0.847%
Edge -0.212%
Kelly -0.282%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.95%24.91%24.91%26.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.733.754.0028.57%26.81%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Salford City (Local): 51.58%; Fleetwood Town (Visit): 23.63%; Draw: 24.79%. For Fleetwood Town (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.23. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.50, producing a positive expected value of +6.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -13.86%E -8.30%K -20.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +6.33%E +1.41%K +1.81%G +0.114%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-26 16:50
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.53%EV -12.31%E -7.24%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV +3.97%E +0.901%K +1.17%G +0.046%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-26 19:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -14.89%E -9.02%K -22.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV +3.97%E +0.901%K +1.17%G +0.046%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -7.04%E -1.88%K -2.56%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-26 16:55
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.23%EV -7.15%E -3.97%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -0.760%E -0.181%K -0.237%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -0.847%E -0.212%K -0.282%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-26 19:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.19%EV -8.18%E -4.60%K -10.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -0.760%E -0.181%K -0.237%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -3.33%E -0.853%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 19:14
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.44%EV -9.73%E -5.56%K -12.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -0.760%E -0.181%K -0.237%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -4.57%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-26 19:14
SportsBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.27%EV -10.76%E -6.22%K -14.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -3.12%E -0.762%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-26 19:15
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -10.76%E -6.22%K -14.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -5.49%E -1.37%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-26 19:14
Bet Right🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.66%EV -10.25%E -5.89%K -13.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -5.49%E -1.37%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -7.04%E -1.88%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-26 19:14
1xBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.16%EV -6.63%E -3.67%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 23.81%EV -8.08%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -8.28%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-26 19:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.41%EV -7.67%E -4.28%K -9.70%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.72%EV -8.32%E -2.14%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -8.28%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 19:05
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -4.57%E -2.47%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.47%EV -9.50%E -2.48%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.86%EV -6.55%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-26 18:00
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -5.60%E -3.06%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -10.21%E -2.69%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.76%E -2.99%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 18:10
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -4.57%E -2.47%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -10.21%E -2.69%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -13.24%E -3.78%K -5.30%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-26 17:35
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -4.57%E -2.47%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -10.21%E -2.69%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -13.24%E -3.78%K -5.30%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-26 17:40
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.44%EV -5.60%E -3.06%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%EV -11.39%E -3.04%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -8.28%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-26 19:09
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.85%EV -9.73%E -5.56%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -11.39%E -3.04%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -13.24%E -3.78%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-26 18:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-26 18:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-26 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-09-26 18:45