The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Salford City v Crawley Town

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Salford City 2–1 Crawley Town

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Salford City (Local)

Prediction 67.85%1.47fair odd
EV -5.02%
Edge -3.58%
Kelly -12.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.90%67.75%67.99%70.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.361.361.4076.92%73.46%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Crawley Town (Visit)

Prediction 13.27%7.54fair odd
EV +3.51%
Edge +0.450%
Kelly +0.516%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 7.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.68%13.34%13.21%14.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.206.916.757.8016.13%14.46%14.81%12.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.88%5.30fair odd
EV +3.86%
Edge +0.702%
Kelly +0.858%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.31%18.91%18.81%20.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.854.805.5022.22%20.63%20.83%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Salford City (Local): 67.85%; Crawley Town (Visit): 13.27%; Draw: 18.88%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.30. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.00%EV -7.73%E -5.68%K -21.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -0.473%E -0.063%K -0.073%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV +3.86%E +0.702%K +0.858%G +0.033%5.0%2026-10-17 12:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.58%EV -8.41%E -6.23%K -24.02%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -0.473%E -0.063%K -0.073%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -0.861%E -0.164%K -0.203%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 12:05
BetUS🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.30%EV -5.69%E -4.10%K -14.60%G +0.000%7.38I 13.55%NM 12.86%EV -2.07%E -0.280%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.04I 19.84%NM 18.84%EV -4.83%E -0.958%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 13:50
Pinnacle🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.26%EV -5.69%E -4.10%K -14.60%G +0.000%7.37I 13.57%NM 12.87%EV -2.20%E -0.298%K -0.345%G +0.000%5.03I 19.88%NM 18.86%EV -5.02%E -0.997%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-17 13:55
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -5.02%E -3.58%K -12.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -7.11%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 09:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -5.02%E -3.58%K -12.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -7.11%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 09:55
DraftKings🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.72%EV -5.69%E -4.10%K -14.60%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -7.11%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 13:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -5.02%E -3.58%K -12.54%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -13.74%E -2.11%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 13:40
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -5.02%E -3.58%K -12.54%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -13.74%E -2.11%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 13:45
picklebet_au🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -5.02%E -3.58%K -12.54%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -13.74%E -2.11%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 13:39
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.73%E -5.68%K -21.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -0.473%E -0.063%K -0.073%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 12:50
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.73%E -5.68%K -21.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -0.473%E -0.063%K -0.073%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 12:54
Coolbet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.41%E -6.23%K -24.02%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -0.473%E -0.063%K -0.073%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 04:45
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -7.73%E -5.68%K -21.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -7.11%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 10:40
1xBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.68%EV -8.41%E -6.23%K -24.02%G +0.000%7.26I 13.77%NM 12.77%EV -3.66%E -0.504%K -0.584%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 04:44
LeoVegas🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -6.37%E -4.62%K -16.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -13.74%E -2.11%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 13:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.77%EV -9.09%E -6.78%K -26.72%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.80%EV -4.45%E -0.619%K -0.718%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-17 04:39
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -9.76%E -7.34%K -29.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -0.473%E -0.063%K -0.073%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-17 04:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -9.09%E -6.78%K -26.72%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -7.11%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 12:05
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.99%EV -9.76%E -7.34%K -29.59%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.66%EV -3.79%E -0.523%K -0.606%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 13:35
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.76%E -7.34%K -29.59%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -7.11%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-17 13:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.76%E -7.34%K -29.59%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -7.11%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-17 13:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.09%EV -11.80%E -9.08%K -39.33%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.68%EV +3.51%E +0.450%K +0.516%G +0.018%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 13:55
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.01%EV -11.12%E -8.49%K -35.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.91%EV -7.11%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -5.58%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 07:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.62%EV -6.37%E -4.62%K -16.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -7.11%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.04%EV -7.47%E -1.52%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-12 14:09
Bet Right🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.73%EV -9.09%E -6.78%K -26.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -0.473%E -0.063%K -0.073%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.99%EV -8.41%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 04:45
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.71%EV -5.02%E -3.58%K -12.54%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -10.43%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -9.36%E -1.95%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 13:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.03%EV -6.37%E -4.62%K -16.77%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.70%EV -10.43%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.36%E -1.95%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-17 09:55
Neds🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.03%EV -6.37%E -4.62%K -16.77%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.70%EV -10.43%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -9.36%E -1.95%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-17 09:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.90%EV -5.02%E -3.58%K -12.54%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.88%EV -17.72%E -2.86%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.22%EV -9.36%E -1.95%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-17 13:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.90%EV -5.02%E -3.58%K -12.54%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.88%EV -17.72%E -2.86%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.22%EV -9.36%E -1.95%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-17 13:45
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.03%EV -9.76%E -7.34%K -29.59%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -7.11%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.05%EV -10.30%E -2.17%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-17 13:45
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%EV -6.37%E -4.62%K -16.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -13.74%E -2.11%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -11.25%E -2.39%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 13:38
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.24%EV -8.41%E -6.23%K -24.02%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -10.43%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -11.25%E -2.39%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 14:09
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.24%EV -8.41%E -6.23%K -24.02%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -10.43%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -11.25%E -2.39%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 14:09
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.24%EV -8.41%E -6.23%K -24.02%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -10.43%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -11.25%E -2.39%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.24%EV -8.41%E -6.23%K -24.02%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -10.43%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -11.25%E -2.39%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 14:09
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.24%EV -8.41%E -6.23%K -24.02%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -10.43%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -11.25%E -2.39%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 14:09
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.24%EV -8.41%E -6.23%K -24.02%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -10.43%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -11.25%E -2.39%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 14:09
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.24%EV -8.41%E -6.23%K -24.02%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -10.43%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -11.25%E -2.39%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 14:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.24%EV -8.41%E -6.23%K -24.02%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -10.43%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -11.25%E -2.39%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 14:14
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.24%EV -8.41%E -6.23%K -24.02%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -10.43%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -11.25%E -2.39%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 14:14
betPARX🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.24%EV -8.41%E -6.23%K -24.02%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -10.43%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -11.25%E -2.39%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 14:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.12%EV -7.05%E -5.15%K -19.06%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.61%EV -17.72%E -2.86%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.27%EV -11.25%E -2.39%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-17 13:40
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -7.73%E -5.68%K -21.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -13.74%E -2.11%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -13.14%E -2.86%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:30
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -7.73%E -5.68%K -21.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -13.74%E -2.11%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -13.14%E -2.86%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -7.73%E -5.68%K -21.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -13.74%E -2.11%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -13.14%E -2.86%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -7.73%E -5.68%K -21.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -13.74%E -2.11%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -13.14%E -2.86%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.12%EV -9.09%E -6.78%K -26.72%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.32%EV -10.43%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -13.14%E -2.86%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-12 14:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.12%EV -9.09%E -6.78%K -26.72%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.32%EV -10.43%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -13.14%E -2.86%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-12 14:09
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.01%EV -6.37%E -4.62%K -16.77%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.67%EV -3.13%E -0.428%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.32%EV -14.08%E -3.09%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-12 14:09
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.01%EV -6.37%E -4.62%K -16.77%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.67%EV -3.13%E -0.428%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.32%EV -14.08%E -3.09%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-12 14:10
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.50%EV -7.73%E -5.68%K -21.47%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -10.43%E -1.54%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -15.02%E -3.34%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-12 14:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.41I 70.92%NM 70.17%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.50%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.32%1.1%2026-10-17 13:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.47%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.60%1.4%2026-10-17 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.47%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.60%1.4%2026-10-17 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.47%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.60%1.4%2026-10-17 13:55
Smarkets◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.08%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.41%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.51%1.9%2026-10-17 13:55