Language:English
Rotherham United v Crewe Alexandra
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rotherham United (Local)
Prediction 44.33%2.26fair odd
EV -4.24%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -3.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.64%44.38%44.26%46.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.062.092.1651.81%48.51%47.85%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Crewe Alexandra (Visit)
Prediction 29.13%3.43fair odd
EV -0.967%
Edge -0.284%
Kelly -0.403%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.54%29.06%29.12%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.203.203.4033.33%31.26%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.54%3.77fair odd
EV -0.473%
Edge -0.126%
Kelly -0.172%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.25%26.56%26.62%27.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.493.503.7530.30%28.65%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rotherham United (Local): 44.33%; Crewe Alexandra (Visit): 29.13%; Draw: 26.54%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -0.473%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.30%EV -4.24%E -1.96%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -11.09%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.30%EV -4.24%E -1.96%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -11.09%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.36%EV -4.69%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.08%EV -4.46%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.57%EV -4.72%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-26 13:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -4.69%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.45%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-26 11:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -4.69%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -4.69%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-26 11:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.69%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -9.76%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -4.69%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -8.25%E -2.62%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -8.44%E -2.45%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-26 11:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -4.69%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -8.25%E -2.62%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -8.44%E -2.45%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-26 11:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -4.69%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-26 11:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -4.69%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.42%E -3.76%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -6.02%E -2.84%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -9.76%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-26 13:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -6.02%E -2.84%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -9.76%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-26 13:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.68%EV -6.02%E -2.84%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-26 13:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.33%EV -6.90%E -3.29%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -0.473%E -0.126%K -0.172%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-26 10:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -6.90%E -3.29%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -1.80%E -0.487%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-26 10:35 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.90%E -3.29%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -4.45%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-26 10:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.90%E -3.29%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -4.45%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-26 10:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.90%E -3.29%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-26 13:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.90%E -3.29%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-26 11:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -6.90%E -3.29%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -8.25%E -2.62%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.76%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.90%E -3.29%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.42%E -3.76%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-26 13:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.90%E -3.29%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.42%E -3.76%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-26 13:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.90%E -3.29%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.42%E -3.76%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-26 13:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.32%EV -7.35%E -3.51%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 29.22%EV -7.67%E -2.42%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-26 13:38 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.04%EV -7.35%E -3.51%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.41%EV -5.63%E -1.74%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.56%EV -11.35%E -3.40%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 43.48%EV -7.35%E -3.51%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -11.16%E -3.66%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -9.76%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-26 11:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -7.79%E -3.74%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -4.45%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-26 10:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.45%EV -7.79%E -3.74%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.39%EV -12.42%E -3.76%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.51%EV -8.23%E -3.98%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.44%E -2.45%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-26 13:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -9.12%E -4.45%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -1.80%E -0.487%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-26 13:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -9.12%E -4.45%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-26 10:13 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -9.12%E -4.45%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -4.45%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-26 10:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.67%EV -9.12%E -4.45%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -5.78%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-26 10:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.12%E -4.45%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -12.62%E -4.21%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-26 11:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -11.34%E -5.67%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -0.967%E -0.284%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -3.13%E -0.857%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-23 07:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -11.34%E -5.67%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -0.967%E -0.284%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -3.13%E -0.857%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-23 07:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.34%E -5.67%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.70%E -3.13%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-26 10:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.64%EV -12.67%E -6.43%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -3.88%E -1.18%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -4.45%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-26 09:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -13.55%E -6.95%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-23 07:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.49%EV -14.00%E -7.21%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.77%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-23 07:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.49%EV -14.00%E -7.21%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.77%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-23 07:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.49%EV -14.00%E -7.21%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.77%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-23 07:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.49%EV -14.00%E -7.21%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.77%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-23 07:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.49%EV -14.00%E -7.21%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.77%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-23 07:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.49%EV -14.00%E -7.21%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.77%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-23 07:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.49%EV -14.00%E -7.21%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.77%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-23 07:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.49%EV -14.00%E -7.21%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.77%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-23 07:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.61%EV -14.44%E -7.48%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-23 07:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.44%EV -14.44%E -7.48%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -5.34%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.98%EV -8.44%E -2.45%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-23 07:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.51% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.90% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.59% | 0.3% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.51% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.90% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.59% | 0.3% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.35% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85% | 0.7% | 2026-09-26 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.73% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48% | 0.7% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.19% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12% | 1.0% | 2026-09-26 13:50 |