The School of Odds
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Rochdale v Grimsby Town

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:45 UTC

Final: Rochdale 2–2 Grimsby Town

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rochdale (Local)

Prediction 28.95%3.45fair odd
EV -0.402%
Edge -0.117%
Kelly -0.165%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.44%29.08%28.96%32.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.173.153.4436.36%31.56%31.75%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grimsby Town (Visit)

Prediction 45.38%2.20fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -2.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.73%45.22%45.41%47.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.052.052.1552.36%48.82%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.67%3.90fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -0.644%
Kelly -0.874%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.96%25.70%25.63%27.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.553.603.8030.30%28.19%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rochdale (Local): 28.95%; Grimsby Town (Visit): 45.38%; Draw: 25.67%. For Rochdale (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.44, with an expected value of -0.402%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 27.83%EV -0.402%E -0.117%K -0.165%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.02%EV -5.62%E -2.70%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.15%EV -6.04%E -1.65%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-20 18:20
Pinnacle🎯3.43I 29.15%NM 27.80%EV -0.692%E -0.202%K -0.285%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.07%EV -6.07%E -2.93%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.13%EV -6.30%E -1.73%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-20 18:20
betano_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -1.56%E -0.459%K -0.650%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -9.25%E -4.62%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.02%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-20 18:44
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -1.56%E -0.459%K -0.650%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -9.25%E -4.62%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.58%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-20 18:20
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -3.01%E -0.898%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -8.34%E -4.13%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -11.43%E -3.31%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-20 18:00
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -3.01%E -0.898%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -8.34%E -4.13%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -11.43%E -3.31%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-20 18:00
SportsBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -3.01%E -0.898%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.96%EV -11.06%E -5.64%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -7.58%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-20 18:20
1xBet🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 28.00%EV -3.30%E -0.987%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.30%EV -8.34%E -4.13%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.70%EV -6.56%E -1.80%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-20 18:44
DraftKings🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -6.30%E -1.73%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-20 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -7.43%E -3.64%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -8.87%E -2.50%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 18:15
LowVig.ag🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -7.43%E -3.64%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -8.87%E -2.50%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 18:20
Sky Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -11.52%E -5.91%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -2.45%E -0.644%K -0.874%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-20 18:25
Fanatics🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -9.25%E -4.62%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -10.15%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-20 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -11.52%E -5.91%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -7.58%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-20 18:30
picklebet_au🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -5.90%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.71%E -2.24%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -5.02%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-20 15:50
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -5.90%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -3.73%E -0.995%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-20 14:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -5.90%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -5.02%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-20 14:35
Bet Victor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -5.90%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -5.02%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-20 18:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -5.90%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -5.62%E -2.70%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.58%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-20 14:40
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.90%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.12%EV -3.80%E -1.79%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -11.43%E -3.31%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-15 19:04
Betr (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -7.35%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.12%EV -4.71%E -2.24%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -3.73%E -0.995%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-20 14:35
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.35%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -5.02%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 14:35
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.35%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -5.02%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 14:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.35%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -5.02%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 14:35
Marathon Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.75%EV -7.35%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.55%EV -8.34%E -4.13%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.70%EV -8.10%E -2.26%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-20 15:40
PlayUp🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -7.35%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -9.25%E -4.62%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.72%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-20 18:20
Coolbet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -8.80%E -2.79%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -5.62%E -2.70%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -3.73%E -0.995%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-20 14:35
LeoVegas🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.50%EV -8.80%E -2.79%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%EV -5.62%E -2.70%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -7.58%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-20 14:40
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.71%E -2.24%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.58%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-19 06:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.58%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-20 14:35
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.58%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-20 14:35
Bet Right🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.58%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-20 14:40
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.58%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-20 15:44
theScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.25%E -4.62%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -7.58%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-20 14:35
Codere (IT)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 44.75%EV -7.89%E -3.89%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -10.15%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-20 14:45
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.87%EV -6.53%E -3.17%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -14.00%E -4.18%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 19:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.87%EV -6.53%E -3.17%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -14.00%E -4.18%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 19:05
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.87%EV -6.53%E -3.17%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -14.00%E -4.18%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 19:05
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.87%EV -6.53%E -3.17%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -14.00%E -4.18%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 19:05
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.87%EV -6.53%E -3.17%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -14.00%E -4.18%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 19:04
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.87%EV -6.53%E -3.17%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -14.00%E -4.18%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 19:04
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.87%EV -6.53%E -3.17%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -14.00%E -4.18%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 19:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.87%EV -6.53%E -3.17%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -14.00%E -4.18%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 19:05
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.87%EV -6.53%E -3.17%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -14.00%E -4.18%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 19:04
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.81%EV -10.61%E -5.39%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -7.58%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-20 18:40
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -6.98%E -3.40%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -14.00%E -4.18%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-15 19:05
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -13.33%E -6.98%K -14.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -3.73%E -0.995%K -1.36%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-20 14:40
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 43.93%EV -7.43%E -3.64%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -15.28%E -4.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-15 19:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 43.93%EV -7.43%E -3.64%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -15.28%E -4.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-15 19:05
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -20.38%E -7.41%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -2.44%E -1.14%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.15%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 16:49
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -20.38%E -7.41%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -2.44%E -1.14%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.15%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 16:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -20.38%E -7.41%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -2.44%E -1.14%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.15%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 16:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -20.38%E -7.41%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -2.44%E -1.14%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.15%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 16:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.72%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.45%0.7%2026-10-20 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.72%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.45%0.7%2026-10-20 18:35
Matchbook◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.72%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.45%0.7%2026-10-20 18:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.60%1.4%2026-10-20 18:40
Smarkets◎3.65I 27.40%NM 26.88%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.63%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.49%1.9%2026-10-20 18:40