Language:English
Port Vale v Northampton Town
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Port Vale (Local)
Prediction 45.65%2.19fair odd
EV +0.434%
Edge +0.197%
Kelly +0.362%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.67%45.78%45.79%50.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.991.932.2054.64%50.32%51.81%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Northampton Town (Visit)
Prediction 25.94%3.85fair odd
EV +10.78%
Edge +2.52%
Kelly +3.30%
Growth +0.355%
assuming max odds 4.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.68%25.61%26.15%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.723.904.2730.77%26.86%25.64%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.41%3.52fair odd
EV -4.84%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.67%28.60%28.06%30.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.273.343.3533.33%30.55%29.90%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Port Vale (Local): 45.65%; Northampton Town (Visit): 25.94%; Draw: 28.41%. For Northampton Town (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.85. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.27, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.78%.
Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.60%EV -16.46%E -8.99%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 4.27I 23.42%NM 21.68%EV +10.78%E +2.52%K +3.30%G +0.355% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.72%EV -5.13%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-19 16:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -11.89%E -6.16%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV +1.18%E +0.302%K +0.406%G +0.005% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -4.84%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-21 14:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -11.89%E -6.16%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV +1.18%E +0.302%K +0.406%G +0.005% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -4.84%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-21 14:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -11.89%E -6.16%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV +1.18%E +0.302%K +0.406%G +0.005% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -4.84%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-21 14:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -11.89%E -6.16%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV +1.18%E +0.302%K +0.406%G +0.005% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -4.84%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-21 14:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -11.89%E -6.16%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV +1.18%E +0.302%K +0.406%G +0.005% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -4.84%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-21 14:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -11.89%E -6.16%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV +1.18%E +0.302%K +0.406%G +0.005% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -4.84%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-21 14:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -11.89%E -6.16%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV +1.18%E +0.302%K +0.406%G +0.005% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -4.84%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-21 14:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -11.89%E -6.16%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV +1.18%E +0.302%K +0.406%G +0.005% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -4.84%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-21 14:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -11.89%E -6.16%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV +1.18%E +0.302%K +0.406%G +0.005% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -4.84%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-21 14:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -11.89%E -6.16%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV +1.18%E +0.302%K +0.406%G +0.005% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -4.84%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-21 14:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -11.89%E -6.16%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV +1.18%E +0.302%K +0.406%G +0.005% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -4.84%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-21 14:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.31%EV -13.72%E -7.26%K -15.41%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -1.42%E -0.373%K -0.506%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-22 10:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.21%EV -14.63%E -7.82%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -2.72%E -0.724%K -0.987%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-21 14:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -15.54%E -8.40%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -2.72%E -0.724%K -0.987%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-21 14:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 45.79%EV -8.24%E -4.10%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.15%EV -8.68%E -2.47%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.06%EV -6.83%E -2.08%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-22 06:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV +0.434%E +0.197%K +0.362%G +0.002% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -11.79%E -3.47%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-21 14:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.03%EV -0.935%E -0.431%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 27.79%EV -12.83%E -3.82%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-22 07:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -1.85%E -0.860%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-21 14:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV +0.434%E +0.197%K +0.362%G +0.002% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -14.78%E -4.93%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-19 16:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV +0.434%E +0.197%K +0.362%G +0.002% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -14.78%E -4.93%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -3.22%E -1.52%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -15.69%E -4.83%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-21 14:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.