The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Port Vale v Chesterfield FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Final: Port Vale 1–0 Chesterfield FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Port Vale (Local)

Prediction 31.55%3.17fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.400%
Kelly -0.588%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.33%31.67%31.41%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.862.903.1339.22%34.93%34.48%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chesterfield FC (Visit)

Prediction 39.83%2.51fair odd
EV -0.436%
Edge -0.174%
Kelly -0.290%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.16%39.71%39.91%41.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.362.352.5045.45%42.45%42.55%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.63%3.49fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -0.786%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.34%28.62%28.68%29.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.243.253.4032.26%30.91%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Port Vale (Local): 31.55%; Chesterfield FC (Visit): 39.83%; Draw: 28.63%. For Chesterfield FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.50, with an expected value of -0.436%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯3.13I 31.95%NM 30.59%EV -1.25%E -0.400%K -0.588%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.23%EV -5.21%E -2.19%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.19%EV -6.11%E -1.86%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-17 13:40
Pinnacle🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.58%EV -1.57%E -0.503%K -0.740%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.25%EV -5.61%E -2.37%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.17%EV -6.39%E -1.96%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-17 13:40
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -2.20%E -0.709%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -12.38%E -5.63%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -11.26%E -3.63%K -5.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-17 13:25
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -3.78%E -1.24%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.28%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -5.54%E -1.68%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 13:29
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.87%EV -5.61%E -2.37%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -5.54%E -1.68%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 13:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.87%EV -5.61%E -2.37%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -5.54%E -1.68%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 13:15
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -5.21%E -2.19%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.99%EV -6.97%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-17 13:43
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.54%E -1.68%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 13:55
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.97%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 13:10
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.40%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-17 13:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.40%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-17 13:55
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.26%E -3.63%K -5.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 13:15
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.26%E -3.63%K -5.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 13:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.26%E -3.63%K -5.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 13:15
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -5.35%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.26%E -3.63%K -5.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 13:15
1xBet🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.30%EV -6.62%E -2.24%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.93%EV -7.60%E -3.28%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.77%EV -7.83%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-17 13:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -6.93%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -6.97%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 13:15
Neds🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -6.93%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -6.97%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 13:15
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -6.93%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -6.97%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-17 13:15
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.31%EV -6.93%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.82%EV -7.60%E -3.28%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -8.40%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 13:10
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.31%EV -6.93%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.82%EV -7.60%E -3.28%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -8.40%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 13:10
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -6.93%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.40%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 13:15
SportsBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -6.93%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -10.39%E -4.62%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -8.40%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 13:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 31.81%EV -7.25%E -2.46%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -8.40%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 13:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 31.81%EV -7.25%E -2.46%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -8.40%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 13:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 31.41%EV -7.56%E -2.58%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.01%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.58%EV -7.83%E -2.43%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 13:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -8.51%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -2.67%E -0.786%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 13:20
picklebet_au🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -8.51%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -2.43%E -0.991%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -5.54%E -1.68%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 11:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -8.51%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -6.97%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 05:14
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.51%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.54%E -1.68%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 13:15
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.51%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -2.67%E -0.786%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 13:20
LeoVegas🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -8.51%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -5.21%E -2.19%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -8.40%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-17 13:10
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -8.51%E -2.93%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -5.54%E -1.68%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 13:10
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.82%EV -9.14%E -3.17%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -2.67%E -0.786%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 04:29
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%EV -9.14%E -3.17%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.25%EV -10.39%E -4.62%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -8.40%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-17 13:30
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.40%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 13:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.40%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 13:15
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.70%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.62%EV -9.20%E -4.03%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -9.83%E -3.12%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-17 13:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -11.66%E -4.17%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -9.83%E -3.12%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-17 05:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.65%EV -14.82%E -5.49%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.42%EV -0.436%E -0.174%K -0.290%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.10%E -1.23%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-15 21:04
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -14.82%E -5.49%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -5.54%E -1.68%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-16 15:29
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.84%EV -17.97%E -6.91%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.28%EV -3.22%E -1.33%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -6.97%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 21:05
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.84%EV -17.97%E -6.91%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.28%EV -3.22%E -1.33%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -6.97%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 21:05
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.84%EV -17.97%E -6.91%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.28%EV -3.22%E -1.33%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -6.97%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 21:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.84%EV -17.97%E -6.91%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.28%EV -3.22%E -1.33%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -6.97%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 21:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.84%EV -17.97%E -6.91%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.28%EV -3.22%E -1.33%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -6.97%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 21:04
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.84%EV -17.97%E -6.91%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.28%EV -3.22%E -1.33%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -6.97%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 21:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.84%EV -17.97%E -6.91%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.28%EV -3.22%E -1.33%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -6.97%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 21:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.84%EV -17.97%E -6.91%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.28%EV -3.22%E -1.33%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -6.97%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 21:05
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.84%EV -17.97%E -6.91%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.28%EV -3.22%E -1.33%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -6.97%E -2.14%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 21:04
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -17.97%E -6.91%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -8.40%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-15 21:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.97%EV -19.55%E -7.67%K -12.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.16%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -8.40%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-15 21:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.97%EV -19.55%E -7.67%K -12.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.16%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -8.40%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-15 21:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82%0.6%2026-10-17 13:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82%0.6%2026-10-17 13:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82%0.6%2026-10-17 13:45
Matchbook◎3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82%0.6%2026-10-17 13:45
Smarkets◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.76%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.43%1.4%2026-10-17 13:55