Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Oldham Athletic v Chesterfield FC

Início: 2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Final: Oldham Athletic 1–2 Chesterfield FC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

52 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Oldham Athletic (Local)

Previsão 42.43%2.36odd justa
EV +1.84%
Vantagem +0.768%
Kelly +1.32%
Crescimento +0.024%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
38.79%42.18%42.51%43.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.102.232.202.4047.62%44.88%45.45%41.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Chesterfield FC (Visitante)

Previsão 29.66%3.37odd justa
EV -2.13%
Vantagem -0.646%
Kelly -0.927%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.35%29.81%29.56%34.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.753.033.083.3036.36%33.06%32.52%30.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.91%3.58odd justa
EV -2.32%
Vantagem -0.663%
Kelly -0.929%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.80%28.01%27.93%29.61%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.053.283.303.5032.79%30.47%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Oldham Athletic (Local): 42.43%; Chesterfield FC (Visitante): 29.66%; Empate: 27.91%. Para Oldham Athletic (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.36. 10 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 2.40, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.84%.

Odds das casas de apostas (52 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV +1.84%E +0.768%K +1.32%G +0.024%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -18.44%E -6.71%K -10.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -2.32%E -0.663%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 20:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV +0.995%E +0.418%K +0.721%G +0.007%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -13.99%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -10.69%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-08 16:00
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV +0.995%E +0.418%K +0.721%G +0.007%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -13.99%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -10.69%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-08 15:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV +0.995%E +0.418%K +0.721%G +0.007%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -13.99%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -10.69%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-08 15:59
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV +0.995%E +0.418%K +0.721%G +0.007%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -13.99%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -10.69%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-08 15:59
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV +0.995%E +0.418%K +0.721%G +0.007%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -13.99%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -10.69%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-08 15:59
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV +0.995%E +0.418%K +0.721%G +0.007%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -13.99%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -10.69%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-08 15:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV +0.995%E +0.418%K +0.721%G +0.007%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -13.99%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -10.69%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-08 16:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV +0.995%E +0.418%K +0.721%G +0.007%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -13.99%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -10.69%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-08 15:59
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV +0.995%E +0.418%K +0.721%G +0.007%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -13.99%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -10.69%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-08 15:59
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.81%EV -1.55%E -0.668%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.15%EV -16.96%E -6.06%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -13.48%E -4.35%K -6.42%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-08 15:59
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -2.40%E -1.04%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -11.03%E -3.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -2.32%E -0.663%K -0.929%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 15:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -2.40%E -1.04%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -18.44%E -6.71%K -10.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.48%E -4.35%K -6.42%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 15:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.81%EV -3.25%E -1.42%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.18%EV -18.44%E -6.71%K -10.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.01%EV -14.88%E -4.88%K -7.26%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 15:59
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.81%EV -3.25%E -1.42%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.18%EV -18.44%E -6.71%K -10.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.01%EV -14.88%E -4.88%K -7.26%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 16:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.52%E -2.01%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.11%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 16:51
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -4.52%E -2.01%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -11.03%E -3.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -2.32%E -0.663%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 15:10
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -4.52%E -2.01%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -11.03%E -3.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.11%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 15:10
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -4.52%E -2.01%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -11.03%E -3.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.11%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 15:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -4.52%E -2.01%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -12.51%E -4.24%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -7.90%E -2.39%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 15:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -4.52%E -2.01%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -13.48%E -4.35%K -6.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 16:20
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -4.52%E -2.01%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -13.99%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.90%E -2.39%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-09 15:10
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -6.64%E -3.02%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.10%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -2.32%E -0.663%K -0.929%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 16:50
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -6.64%E -3.02%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -5.10%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -6.51%E -1.94%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 16:25
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.64%E -3.02%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.11%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.64%E -3.02%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.11%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 16:50
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.64%E -3.02%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.11%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 16:51
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.64%E -3.02%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.11%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 16:50
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -6.64%E -3.02%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -12.51%E -4.24%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -6.51%E -1.94%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-09 15:10
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.40%EV -6.64%E -3.02%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -13.99%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -6.51%E -1.94%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 15:10
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.74%EV -7.49%E -3.44%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.03%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.90%E -2.39%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 16:45
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.71%EV -7.49%E -3.44%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -11.03%E -3.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -9.30%E -2.86%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 16:51
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.41%EV -7.92%E -3.65%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.55%EV -2.13%E -0.646%K -0.927%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.04%EV -6.23%E -1.85%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 16:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.03%EV -7.92%E -3.65%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.90%EV -9.55%E -3.13%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -9.30%E -2.86%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-09 16:51
Marathon Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.93%EV -8.34%E -3.86%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -5.10%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -7.90%E -2.39%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 16:46
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -8.76%E -4.08%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.10%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.90%E -2.39%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-09 16:15
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -8.76%E -4.08%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -3.61%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -10.69%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 16:51
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -8.76%E -4.08%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -3.61%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -10.69%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 16:50
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.76%E -4.08%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.90%E -2.39%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 17:00
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.76%E -4.08%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.90%E -2.39%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 16:53
BetUS🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.76%E -4.08%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.90%E -2.39%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 17:00
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.76%E -4.08%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.30%E -2.86%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 16:15
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.76%E -4.08%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.30%E -2.86%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 16:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.76%E -4.08%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.30%E -2.86%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 16:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.76%E -4.08%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.30%E -2.86%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 16:15
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -8.76%E -4.08%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -13.99%E -4.83%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -7.90%E -2.39%K -3.44%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-09 15:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.96%EV -9.19%E -4.29%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -6.58%E -2.09%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -7.90%E -2.39%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-09 16:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.96%EV -9.19%E -4.29%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -6.58%E -2.09%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -7.90%E -2.39%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-09 16:40
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.62%EV -10.04%E -4.73%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -8.06%E -2.60%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -10.69%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-09 16:50
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.30%EV -10.89%E -5.18%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.14%EV -7.47%E -2.39%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -7.90%E -2.39%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 17:03
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.30%EV -10.89%E -5.18%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.14%EV -7.47%E -2.39%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -7.90%E -2.39%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 17:05
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -10.89%E -5.18%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -11.03%E -3.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -9.30%E -2.86%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-09 15:10
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.91%1.7%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.91%1.7%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.91%1.7%2026-09-09 17:40
Matchbook◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.91%1.7%2026-09-09 17:25
Smarkets◎2.36I 42.37%NM 40.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.29%3.4%2026-09-09 17:21