The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Northampton Town v Tranmere Rovers

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:45 UTC

Final: Northampton Town 0–1 Tranmere Rovers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northampton Town (Local)

Prediction 43.50%2.30fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -0.942%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.53%43.56%43.55%46.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.142.152.2551.81%46.82%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tranmere Rovers (Visit)

Prediction 28.10%3.56fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.475%
Kelly -0.664%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.81%28.12%28.05%30.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.243.283.5033.33%30.85%30.49%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.40%3.52fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -0.925%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.38%28.32%28.40%29.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.253.253.4132.26%30.77%30.77%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Northampton Town (Local): 43.50%; Tranmere Rovers (Visit): 28.10%; Draw: 28.40%. For Tranmere Rovers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -1.66%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -2.12%E -0.942%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -12.90%E -4.16%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-19 07:59
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -2.99%E -1.34%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -12.90%E -4.16%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-15 18:50
picklebet_au🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.47%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 18:40
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-20 18:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-20 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-20 18:20
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-20 18:18
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-20 18:20
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-20 18:20
BetUS🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.92%EV -5.16%E -2.37%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.92%EV -3.63%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.16%EV -3.44%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-20 18:40
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.01%EV -5.60%E -2.58%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-20 18:29
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.15%EV -6.03%E -2.79%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.88%EV -3.91%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.97%EV -3.15%E -0.925%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-20 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.44%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-20 18:30
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 18:44
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.74%EV -5.88%E -1.75%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-20 18:38
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 18:30
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-20 18:30
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -15.71%E -5.24%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 18:50
Casumo🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -15.71%E -5.24%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 18:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -15.71%E -5.24%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 18:50
TABtouch🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -15.71%E -5.24%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 18:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -15.71%E -5.24%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 18:49
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -15.71%E -5.24%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 18:50
betPARX🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -15.71%E -5.24%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -15.71%E -5.24%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -15.71%E -5.24%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 18:50
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -15.71%E -5.24%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-19 10:34
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.98%EV -6.90%E -3.23%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -15.71%E -5.24%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.07%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-15 18:50
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.98%EV -6.90%E -3.23%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -15.71%E -5.24%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.07%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-15 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.98%EV -6.90%E -3.23%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -15.71%E -5.24%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.07%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-15 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.13%EV -7.77%E -3.67%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -4.47%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-20 18:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.13%EV -7.77%E -3.67%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -4.47%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-20 18:35
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -7.77%E -3.67%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -5.88%E -1.75%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-20 18:35
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -7.77%E -3.67%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -5.88%E -1.75%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-20 18:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.47%EV -7.77%E -3.67%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.09%EV -7.84%E -2.39%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.44%EV -7.98%E -2.46%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-20 18:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.82%EV -7.77%E -3.67%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -10.54%E -3.35%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 18:40
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.92%EV -8.64%E -4.12%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -3.07%E -0.889%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -3.44%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-20 18:30
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -8.64%E -4.12%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -1.66%E -0.475%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-20 18:34
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -8.64%E -4.12%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -1.66%E -0.475%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-20 18:35
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.64%E -4.12%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.44%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-20 18:25
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -8.64%E -4.12%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -1.66%E -0.475%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-20 18:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.64%E -4.12%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -4.47%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-20 18:35
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.64%E -4.12%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-20 18:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.64%E -4.12%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-20 18:30
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.64%E -4.12%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-20 18:39
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.64%E -4.12%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.69%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 18:30
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.64%E -4.12%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.69%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 18:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.64%E -4.12%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.69%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 18:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.64%E -4.12%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.69%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 18:30
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -8.64%E -4.12%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -10.54%E -3.35%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-20 18:35
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.18%EV -9.51%E -4.57%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -3.07%E -0.889%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -10.54%E -3.35%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-20 18:35
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -13.00%E -6.50%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -4.47%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-20 18:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.81%EV -16.04%E -8.31%K -17.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -1.66%E -0.475%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-20 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%0.7%2026-10-20 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%0.7%2026-10-20 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%0.7%2026-10-20 18:35
Matchbook◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%0.7%2026-10-20 18:35
Smarkets◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%1.1%2026-10-20 18:35