The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Northampton Town v Oldham Athletic

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northampton Town (Local)

Prediction 35.18%2.84fair odd
EV -3.97%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.77%35.20%35.03%37.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.432.592.602.7341.15%38.67%38.46%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oldham Athletic (Visit)

Prediction 35.53%2.81fair odd
EV -4.06%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.36%35.46%35.47%36.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.632.622.7040.00%38.08%38.17%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.29%3.41fair odd
EV -0.407%
Edge -0.120%
Kelly -0.170%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.67%29.34%29.50%31.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.183.253.4034.48%31.40%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Northampton Town (Local): 35.18%; Oldham Athletic (Visit): 35.53%; Draw: 29.29%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.41. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -0.407%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.47%EV -3.97%E -1.45%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.65%EV -6.20%E -2.35%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -7.73%E -2.45%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-26 18:00
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -7.62%E -2.93%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -9.19%E -2.97%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-26 19:09
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54%EV -5.84%E -2.20%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.56%EV -15.05%E -5.19%K -7.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-27 00:42
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.91%E -2.64%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -15.05%E -5.19%K -7.92%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-26 17:44
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.91%E -2.64%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -15.05%E -5.19%K -7.92%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-26 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.91%E -2.64%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -15.05%E -5.19%K -7.92%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-26 19:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.91%E -2.64%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -15.05%E -5.19%K -7.92%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-26 19:49
1xBet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 34.59%EV -6.43%E -2.42%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 35.53%EV -7.97%E -3.08%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.88%EV -9.78%E -3.18%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 17:47
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -6.78%E -2.56%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -7.62%E -2.93%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -0.407%E -0.120%K -0.170%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 17:05
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -6.78%E -2.56%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.63%EV -7.62%E -2.93%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.73%E -2.45%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-27 08:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -6.78%E -2.56%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -7.62%E -2.93%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.19%E -2.97%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-26 16:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.06%EV -7.49%E -2.85%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.06%EV -6.55%E -2.49%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.89%EV -0.407%E -0.120%K -0.170%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-30 14:05
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.09%EV -7.84%E -2.99%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.09%EV -6.91%E -2.64%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -0.407%E -0.120%K -0.170%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-26 17:50
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.69%EV -7.84%E -2.99%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.97%EV -7.62%E -2.93%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -3.34%E -1.01%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-28 14:05
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -7.84%E -2.99%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.91%E -2.64%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.27%E -1.96%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-28 14:05
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -7.84%E -2.99%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.91%E -2.64%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.27%E -1.96%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-28 14:05
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -8.54%E -3.29%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -7.62%E -2.93%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -3.34%E -1.01%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-26 17:05
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -8.54%E -3.29%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -11.17%E -4.47%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-30 14:18
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -8.54%E -3.29%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -11.17%E -4.47%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -6.27%E -1.96%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-26 17:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.82%EV -8.54%E -3.29%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -9.39%E -3.68%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.68%EV -10.66%E -3.49%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-26 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 35.57%EV -8.89%E -3.43%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 34.90%EV -6.20%E -2.35%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.53%EV -8.61%E -2.76%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-29 09:20
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -10.30%E -4.04%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -9.39%E -3.68%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-26 17:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -10.30%E -4.04%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -9.39%E -3.68%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-28 14:05
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -10.30%E -4.04%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -11.17%E -4.47%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -3.34%E -1.01%K -1.45%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-26 17:05
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -10.30%E -4.04%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -9.39%E -3.68%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -7.73%E -2.45%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-28 14:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -4.06%E -1.51%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 09:15
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -4.06%E -1.51%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 09:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -4.06%E -1.51%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 09:15
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -4.06%E -1.51%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 09:15
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -4.06%E -1.51%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 09:15
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -4.06%E -1.51%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 09:15
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -4.06%E -1.51%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 09:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -4.06%E -1.51%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 09:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -4.06%E -1.51%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 09:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -4.06%E -1.51%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 09:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -4.06%E -1.51%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 09:15
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -4.06%E -1.51%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.80%E -1.48%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 09:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.95%EV -14.52%E -5.98%K -10.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -7.62%E -2.93%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.51%EV -7.73%E -2.45%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-29 09:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.18I 45.87%NM 35.27%2.16I 46.30%NM 35.60%2.64I 37.88%NM 29.13%30.0%2026-10-01 05:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 33.70%1.80I 55.56%NM 33.70%1.86I 53.76%NM 32.61%64.9%2026-10-01 02:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 33.70%1.80I 55.56%NM 33.70%1.86I 53.76%NM 32.61%64.9%2026-10-01 02:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 33.70%1.80I 55.56%NM 33.70%1.86I 53.76%NM 32.61%64.9%2026-10-01 02:10
Smarkets◎1.64I 60.98%NM 33.40%1.64I 60.98%NM 33.40%1.65I 60.61%NM 33.20%82.6%2026-10-01 09:05