Language:English
Newport County v Colchester United
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Newport County (Local)
Prediction 35.56%2.81fair odd
EV +3.12%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.64%
Growth +0.051%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.94%35.49%35.62%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.672.622.9040.82%37.40%38.17%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Colchester United (Visit)
Prediction 37.64%2.66fair odd
EV -5.53%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -3.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.57%37.69%37.60%40.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.422.452.5144.84%41.34%40.82%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.80%3.73fair odd
EV -4.31%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.84%26.82%26.78%28.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.403.403.5731.25%29.44%29.41%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newport County (Local): 35.56%; Colchester United (Visit): 37.64%; Draw: 26.80%. For Newport County (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.12%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV +3.12%E +1.08%K +1.64%G +0.051% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.02%EV -12.31%E -5.28%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -10.20%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 14:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV +3.12%E +1.08%K +1.64%G +0.051% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.02%EV -12.31%E -5.28%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -10.20%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 14:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV +3.12%E +1.08%K +1.64%G +0.051% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.02%EV -12.31%E -5.28%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -10.20%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 14:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV +3.12%E +1.08%K +1.64%G +0.051% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.02%EV -12.31%E -5.28%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -10.20%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 14:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV +3.12%E +1.08%K +1.64%G +0.051% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.02%EV -12.31%E -5.28%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -10.20%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 14:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV +3.12%E +1.08%K +1.64%G +0.051% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.02%EV -12.31%E -5.28%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -10.20%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 14:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV +3.12%E +1.08%K +1.64%G +0.051% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.02%EV -12.31%E -5.28%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -10.20%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 14:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV +3.12%E +1.08%K +1.64%G +0.051% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.02%EV -12.31%E -5.28%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -10.20%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 14:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV +3.12%E +1.08%K +1.64%G +0.051% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.02%EV -12.31%E -5.28%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -10.20%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 14:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV +3.12%E +1.08%K +1.64%G +0.051% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.02%EV -12.31%E -5.28%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -10.20%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 14:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV +3.12%E +1.08%K +1.64%G +0.051% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.02%EV -12.31%E -5.28%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -10.20%E -3.05%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 14:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -0.436%E -0.156%K -0.242%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -15.32%E -6.81%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -14.22%E -4.45%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-05 14:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.94%EV -0.436%E -0.156%K -0.242%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.11%EV -16.07%E -7.21%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -14.22%E -4.45%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-05 14:04 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -2.21%E -0.805%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.91%E -2.36%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-03 19:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -3.99%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -5.91%E -2.36%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 19:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -3.99%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-05 07:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.11%EV -7.04%E -2.85%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.37%EV -4.31%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-05 09:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-05 09:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -5.91%E -2.36%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-05 07:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -5.91%E -2.36%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-05 07:31 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 09:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 09:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -5.91%E -2.36%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 07:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -5.91%E -2.36%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 07:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -6.84%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -9.67%E -4.03%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-05 14:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.91%E -2.36%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 14:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.91%E -2.36%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 14:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-03 20:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -5.91%E -2.36%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-05 07:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-05 09:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-03 19:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-05 14:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.25%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.19%EV -9.67%E -4.03%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -7.52%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-03 19:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-05 07:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-05 07:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-05 07:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.25%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-05 07:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -7.55%E -2.90%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.73%EV -9.67%E -4.03%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-05 14:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -9.33%E -3.66%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 10:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -9.33%E -3.66%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 10:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -9.33%E -3.66%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 06:38 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -9.33%E -3.66%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -7.79%E -3.18%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 06:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -9.33%E -3.66%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 37.58%EV -8.92%E -3.69%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-05 06:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -9.33%E -3.66%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.27%EV -11.55%E -4.92%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-04 11:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.54%EV -10.39%E -4.12%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 36.69%EV -5.53%E -2.20%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 26.77%EV -7.79%E -2.27%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 10:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.54%EV -10.39%E -4.12%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 36.69%EV -5.53%E -2.20%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 26.77%EV -7.79%E -2.27%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-03 15:51 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.10%E -4.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -10.42%E -4.38%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-03 16:14 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -11.10%E -4.44%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -10.42%E -4.38%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-03 19:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -12.88%E -5.26%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -5.91%E -2.36%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 09:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.72% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.66% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.62% | 2.9% | 2026-10-05 13:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.72% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.66% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.62% | 2.9% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.72% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.66% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.62% | 2.9% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.69% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.36% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.94% | 4.5% | 2026-10-05 14:00 |