The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Newport County v Chesterfield FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-30 19:45 UTC

Final: Newport County 4–1 Chesterfield FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newport County (Local)

Prediction 22.52%4.44fair odd
EV +1.34%
Edge +0.298%
Kelly +0.383%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.90%22.45%22.58%23.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.154.154.5025.00%24.10%24.10%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chesterfield FC (Visit)

Prediction 51.54%1.94fair odd
EV -5.68%
Edge -3.11%
Kelly -6.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.52%51.62%51.43%53.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.771.791.8358.82%56.39%55.87%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.94%3.85fair odd
EV -1.43%
Edge -0.375%
Kelly -0.509%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.26%25.93%25.99%27.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.543.553.8030.30%28.23%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newport County (Local): 22.52%; Chesterfield FC (Visit): 51.54%; Draw: 25.94%. For Newport County (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +1.34%E +0.298%K +0.383%G +0.005%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-30 19:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV +1.34%E +0.298%K +0.383%G +0.005%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-30 19:10
Neds🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -0.910%E -0.207%K -0.268%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.07%EV -8.26%E -4.64%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -10.51%E -3.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-30 19:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -0.910%E -0.207%K -0.268%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.07%EV -8.26%E -4.64%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -10.51%E -3.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-30 19:10
Virgin Bet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.44%EV -2.04%E -0.468%K -0.608%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -9.29%E -5.28%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -5.32%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-30 18:30
betano_uk🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -2.49%E -0.574%K -0.747%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.20%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-30 19:29
Bet Victor🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -2.49%E -0.574%K -0.747%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.20%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-30 19:30
Betsson🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -4.29%E -1.01%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.69%EV -8.26%E -4.64%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.67%EV -10.51%E -3.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-30 19:30
NordicBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -4.29%E -1.01%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.69%EV -8.26%E -4.64%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.67%EV -10.51%E -3.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-30 19:30
Betr (AU)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.94%EV -6.20%E -3.41%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -4.02%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-30 19:30
picklebet_au🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -5.68%E -3.11%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-30 19:30
Unibet (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -5.68%E -3.11%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-30 19:29
Coolbet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-30 19:30
betfred_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-30 19:30
William Hill🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -9.81%E -5.60%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-30 19:35
BetRivers🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.94%EV -11.87%E -6.94%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.50%EV -7.91%E -2.23%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-30 18:30
Unibet (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.94%EV -11.87%E -6.94%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.50%EV -7.91%E -2.23%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-30 18:30
TABtouch🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.94%EV -11.87%E -6.94%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.50%EV -7.91%E -2.23%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-30 18:30
Unibet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.94%EV -11.87%E -6.94%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.50%EV -7.91%E -2.23%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-30 18:30
Svenska Spel🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.94%EV -11.87%E -6.94%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.50%EV -7.91%E -2.23%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-30 18:30
Casumo🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.94%EV -11.87%E -6.94%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.50%EV -7.91%E -2.23%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-30 18:30
Unibet (NL)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.94%EV -11.87%E -6.94%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.50%EV -7.91%E -2.23%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-30 18:30
ATG (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.94%EV -11.87%E -6.94%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.50%EV -7.91%E -2.23%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-30 18:30
betPARX🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.94%EV -11.87%E -6.94%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.50%EV -7.91%E -2.23%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-30 18:30
Grosvenor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%EV -5.41%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.90%EV -12.38%E -7.28%K -17.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-30 18:30
Pinnacle🎯4.18I 23.92%NM 22.81%EV -5.86%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.10%EV -5.68%E -3.11%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.09%EV -1.43%E -0.375%K -0.509%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-30 19:25
BetUS🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%EV -6.54%E -1.58%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-30 19:35
DraftKings🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -7.67%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.52%EV -5.68%E -3.11%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -4.02%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-30 19:30
LowVig.ag🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -7.67%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.11%EV -6.20%E -3.41%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.91%E -2.23%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-30 19:30
BetOnline.ag🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -7.67%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.11%EV -6.20%E -3.41%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.91%E -2.23%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-30 19:30
Fanatics🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -7.67%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-30 19:30
Bovada🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -7.67%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.51%E -3.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-30 19:29
Bet Right🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -7.67%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.47%EV -8.26%E -4.64%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-30 19:30
Tipico (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -7.67%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.00%EV -12.38%E -7.28%K -17.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-30 19:35
LiveScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.82%EV -7.67%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.62%EV -12.38%E -7.28%K -17.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-30 18:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.82%EV -7.67%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.62%EV -12.38%E -7.28%K -17.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-30 18:30
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -7.67%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 51.24%EV -10.32%E -5.93%K -13.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -14.40%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-30 19:09
1xBet🎯4.06I 24.63%NM 22.81%EV -8.57%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.17%EV -6.71%E -3.71%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.02%EV -7.65%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-30 19:30
Marathon Bet🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 22.73%EV -8.79%E -2.17%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.42%EV -7.75%E -4.33%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 25.85%EV -7.65%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-30 19:25
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -5.68%E -3.11%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -2.72%E -0.726%K -0.990%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-30 19:29
LeoVegas🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.68%EV -5.68%E -3.11%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -7.91%E -2.23%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-30 19:30
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-30 19:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-30 19:35
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -9.81%E -5.60%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -1.43%E -0.375%K -0.509%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-30 19:24
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-30 19:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-30 19:30
Codere (IT)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.86%EV -7.75%E -4.33%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -10.51%E -3.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-30 19:35
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -9.81%E -5.60%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-30 19:00
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-30 19:25
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-30 19:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.23%E -4.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-30 19:25
PlayUp🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.94%EV -8.78%E -4.96%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-30 19:30
theScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%EV -9.92%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 51.76%EV -10.32%E -5.93%K -13.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-30 19:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.98%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.46%0.7%2026-10-30 19:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.68%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-10-30 19:35
Smarkets◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.49%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.81%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%1.1%2026-10-30 19:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.49%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.81%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%1.1%2026-10-30 19:35
Matchbook◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.49%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.81%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%1.1%2026-10-30 19:35