Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Grimsby Town v Fleetwood Town

Inicio: 2026-08-29 14:00 UTC

Final: Grimsby Town 2–2 Fleetwood Town

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Grimsby Town (Local)

Predicción 49.32%2.03momio equitativo
EV -3.82%
Ventaja -1.96%
Kelly -4.02%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.73%49.31%49.25%51.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.771.871.851.9556.50%53.60%53.91%51.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Fleetwood Town (Visitante)

Predicción 24.37%4.10momio equitativo
EV +2.36%
Ventaja +0.563%
Kelly +0.739%
Crecimiento +0.017%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.25%24.32%24.54%25.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.873.864.2027.78%25.84%25.91%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.31%3.80momio equitativo
EV -2.67%
Ventaja -0.722%
Kelly -0.989%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.12%26.37%26.20%27.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.503.503.7030.30%28.61%28.57%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Grimsby Town (Local): 49.32%; Fleetwood Town (Visitante): 24.37%; Empate: 26.31%. Para Fleetwood Town (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.10. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.20, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.36%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -9.74%E -5.32%K -11.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV +2.36%E +0.563%K +0.739%G +0.017%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 13:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -11.22%E -6.23%K -14.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -0.073%E -0.018%K -0.023%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 13:49
SportsBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.86%EV -10.73%E -5.93%K -13.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -0.073%E -0.018%K -0.023%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -9.25%E -2.68%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-29 13:49
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -2.51%E -0.627%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.30%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 09:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -2.51%E -0.627%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.30%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 09:40
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -2.51%E -0.627%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.30%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 09:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -2.51%E -0.627%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.30%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 09:40
Unibet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.09%EV -8.26%E -4.44%K -9.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -2.51%E -0.627%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 14:05
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -11.22%E -6.23%K -14.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -2.51%E -0.627%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -2.67%E -0.722%K -0.989%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 13:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -2.51%E -0.627%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 07:39
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -2.51%E -0.627%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 07:39
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -2.51%E -0.627%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 07:39
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -2.51%E -0.627%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 07:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -2.51%E -0.627%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 07:38
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -2.51%E -0.627%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 07:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -2.51%E -0.627%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 07:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -2.51%E -0.627%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-26 07:39
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -7.77%E -4.15%K -8.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -2.51%E -0.627%K -0.837%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -10.56%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 04:20
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.29%EV -7.27%E -3.87%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -3.73%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -10.56%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 13:45
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.29%EV -7.27%E -3.87%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -3.73%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -10.56%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 13:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -4.95%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 13:35
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -6.29%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -4.95%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 13:50
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.30%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -4.95%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -5.30%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 09:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -11.22%E -6.23%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -4.95%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -5.30%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 13:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.52%EV -7.77%E -4.15%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.87%EV -5.43%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.61%EV -8.46%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 13:33
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.29%EV -4.81%E -2.49%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.58%EV -5.68%E -1.47%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.13%EV -4.25%E -1.17%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 13:35
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.52%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.57%EV -6.17%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -3.99%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 13:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.11%EV -6.29%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -6.17%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 13:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.11%EV -6.29%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -6.17%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 13:35
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.77%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -6.17%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-29 13:35
BetUS🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.77%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -6.17%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-29 13:40
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.08%EV -11.22%E -6.23%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.41%EV -6.17%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -10.56%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-28 14:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.02%EV -11.71%E -6.54%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.26%EV -6.17%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -11.88%E -3.55%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-26 07:39
Bet Victor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -7.38%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.30%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 13:50
betano_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -7.38%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.30%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 13:50
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.58%EV -7.27%E -3.87%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -7.38%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -5.30%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 13:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.15%EV -12.70%E -7.17%K -16.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.36%EV -7.38%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -11.88%E -3.55%K -5.05%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-26 07:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.15%EV -12.70%E -7.17%K -16.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.36%EV -7.38%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -11.88%E -3.55%K -5.05%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-26 07:39
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -3.82%E -1.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -8.60%E -2.29%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.30%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 13:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -3.82%E -1.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -8.60%E -2.29%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.30%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 13:55
Coolbet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.89%EV -5.30%E -2.76%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -8.60%E -2.29%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -5.30%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 13:54
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.89%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -8.60%E -2.29%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.00%EV -11.88%E -3.55%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-29 13:50
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -9.82%E -2.65%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.56%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 13:54
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.71%EV -7.27%E -3.87%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -9.82%E -2.65%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -9.25%E -2.68%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 13:35
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.73%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -9.82%E -2.65%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -13.19%E -4.00%K -5.74%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 13:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.73%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -9.82%E -2.65%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -13.19%E -4.00%K -5.74%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.73%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -9.82%E -2.65%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -13.19%E -4.00%K -5.74%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 13:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -7.77%E -4.15%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -9.82%E -2.65%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.56%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-29 13:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -12.26%E -3.41%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-29 13:55
Bet Right🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -6.29%E -3.31%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -12.26%E -3.41%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 13:55
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -9.74%E -5.32%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -12.26%E -3.41%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-29 13:44
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -9.74%E -5.32%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -12.26%E -3.41%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-29 13:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%1.2%2026-08-29 13:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.76%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.62%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62%1.5%2026-08-29 13:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.76%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.62%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62%1.5%2026-08-29 13:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.76%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.62%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62%1.5%2026-08-29 13:45
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.25%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.68%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.07%2.6%2026-08-29 13:55