The School of Odds
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Gillingham v Grimsby Town

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:00 UTC

Final: Gillingham 1–4 Grimsby Town

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gillingham (Local)

Prediction 28.80%3.47fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -0.873%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.81%28.93%28.83%31.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.193.203.3734.48%31.31%31.25%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grimsby Town (Visit)

Prediction 44.06%2.27fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -3.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.60%44.02%43.99%44.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.102.1850.00%47.51%47.62%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.14%3.68fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -0.639%
Kelly -0.885%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.81%27.06%27.18%28.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.383.403.6030.77%29.60%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gillingham (Local): 28.80%; Grimsby Town (Visit): 44.06%; Draw: 27.14%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -2.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 28.31%EV -2.94%E -0.873%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.58%EV -5.71%E -2.67%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.10%EV -4.47%E -1.27%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 13:50
BetUS🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -3.52%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 13:45
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -3.52%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -8.35%E -4.02%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 13:50
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -3.52%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -8.35%E -4.02%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 13:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -3.52%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -8.35%E -4.02%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 13:45
LowVig.ag🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -3.52%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -8.35%E -4.02%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 13:45
DraftKings🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -5.27%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -6.37%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 07:45
Bet Victor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 13:55
betano_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 13:54
Betway🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 13:44
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 13:45
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 13:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 13:50
1xBet🎯3.27I 30.58%NM 28.31%EV -5.82%E -1.78%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 44.30%EV -7.91%E -3.79%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.39%EV -8.27%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 07:50
picklebet_au🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -5.27%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 11:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -5.27%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 13:25
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -5.27%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 13:25
Sky Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -2.30%E -0.639%K -0.885%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 13:44
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -5.27%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 07:44
Bovada🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -9.09%E -2.71%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 13:50
Marathon Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.32%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.46%EV -8.79%E -4.25%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.23%EV -8.27%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 07:45
888sport🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 13:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 13:45
888sport (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 13:45
SportsBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.23%EV -8.35%E -4.02%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -9.09%E -2.71%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 13:45
Betr (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -5.27%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.30%E -0.639%K -0.885%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 07:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.06%EV -3.95%E -1.81%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-20 19:20
Coolbet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -6.59%E -3.11%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:50
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -6.37%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 13:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -6.37%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 13:25
LeoVegas🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -6.59%E -3.11%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -9.09%E -2.71%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 13:55
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 07:44
PlayUp🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -9.68%E -4.72%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 13:50
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 07:50
Bet Right🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.74%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -6.37%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 07:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 07:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -6.59%E -3.11%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 19:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -6.59%E -3.11%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 19:20
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -6.59%E -3.11%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 19:20
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -6.59%E -3.11%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 19:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -6.59%E -3.11%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 19:20
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -6.59%E -3.11%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 19:20
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -6.59%E -3.11%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 19:20
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -6.59%E -3.11%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 19:20
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -6.59%E -3.11%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 19:20
Codere (IT)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 43.34%EV -7.91%E -3.79%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.45%EV -10.44%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 07:49
theScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -11.88%E -5.94%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-24 07:50
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.61%EV -12.16%E -3.99%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.60%EV -6.59%E -3.11%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-20 19:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -12.16%E -3.99%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.83%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-20 19:20
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -12.16%E -3.99%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.83%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-20 19:20
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -13.60%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.68%E -4.72%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-23 06:59
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -13.60%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -9.68%E -4.72%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-24 13:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -16.48%E -5.68%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.60%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%0.6%2026-10-24 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.60%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%0.6%2026-10-24 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.60%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%0.6%2026-10-24 13:55
Matchbook◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.60%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%0.6%2026-10-24 13:55
Smarkets◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.07%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.65%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29%1.8%2026-10-24 13:55

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