Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fleetwood Town v Oldham Athletic

Kickoff: 2026-09-01 18:45 UTC

Final: Fleetwood Town 1–1 Oldham Athletic

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fleetwood Town (Local)

Prediction 33.93%2.95fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -0.913%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.88%33.99%33.87%35.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.692.752.8740.00%37.14%36.36%34.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oldham Athletic (Visit)

Prediction 37.84%2.64fair odd
EV -4.63%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.14%37.80%37.89%39.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.462.462.5243.48%40.68%40.57%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.23%3.54fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -0.928%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.34%28.21%28.24%29.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.253.243.4331.75%30.76%30.86%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fleetwood Town (Local): 33.93%; Oldham Athletic (Visit): 37.84%; Draw: 28.23%. For Fleetwood Town (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.87, with an expected value of -2.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.30%EV -2.62%E -0.913%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.84%EV -6.90%E -2.81%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.86%EV -3.18%E -0.928%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-01 18:30
BetUS🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -3.30%E -1.16%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-01 18:19
LowVig.ag🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 32.92%EV -3.64%E -1.28%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.32%EV -7.66%E -3.14%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 32.92%EV -3.64%E -1.28%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.32%EV -7.66%E -3.14%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 18:20
1xBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.17%EV -4.32%E -1.53%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.87%EV -6.53%E -2.64%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.96%EV -8.83%E -2.73%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-01 18:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -5.00%E -1.78%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-01 18:35
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV -5.00%E -1.78%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.37%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -5.44%E -1.62%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 18:30
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -5.00%E -1.78%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -9.18%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-01 18:20
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.00%E -1.78%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -9.18%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-01 18:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 33.60%EV -6.35%E -2.30%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.47%EV -8.80%E -3.65%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.93%EV -6.29%E -1.89%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-01 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 18:35
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-01 18:35
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-01 18:40
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-01 18:39
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-01 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-01 18:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 18:20
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 18:20
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -9.18%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-01 18:20
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -9.18%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-01 18:20
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-01 18:19
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.18%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-01 18:35
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -9.18%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -9.18%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 18:30
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -9.18%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-01 18:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -9.18%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-01 18:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -9.18%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-01 18:35
Bovada🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -9.18%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-01 18:33
Betsson🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.14%EV -7.71%E -2.83%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.85%EV -4.63%E -1.84%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-01 18:20
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.14%EV -7.71%E -2.83%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.85%EV -4.63%E -1.84%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-01 18:20
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-01 18:34
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-01 18:35
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -8.39%E -3.11%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -12.96%E -5.63%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -6.85%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-01 18:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -10.08%E -3.81%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-01 18:20
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.52%EV -10.08%E -3.81%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-01 18:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.52%EV -10.08%E -3.81%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-01 18:35
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -10.08%E -3.81%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.01%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -11.09%E -3.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-01 18:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -11.78%E -4.53%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 36.74%EV -6.53%E -2.64%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-01 18:30
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -11.78%E -4.53%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.18%E -3.82%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-01 18:35
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -13.48%E -5.29%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-01 18:33
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -13.48%E -5.29%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-01 18:35
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -13.48%E -5.29%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-01 18:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -13.48%E -5.29%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-01 18:35
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -13.48%E -5.29%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-01 18:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -13.48%E -5.29%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-01 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -13.48%E -5.29%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-01 18:35
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -13.48%E -5.29%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-01 18:35
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -13.48%E -5.29%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -5.39%E -2.16%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-01 18:35
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.40%EV -13.48%E -5.29%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.40%EV -6.15%E -2.48%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-01 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -15.17%E -6.07%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.14%EV -6.15%E -2.48%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-01 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.54%EV -15.17%E -6.07%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.26%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.20%EV -11.09%E -3.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-01 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.54%EV -15.17%E -6.07%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.26%EV -7.28%E -2.97%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.20%EV -11.09%E -3.52%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-01 18:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 33.08%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.16%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%0.8%2026-09-01 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.00I 33.33%NM 33.08%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.16%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%0.8%2026-09-01 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 33.08%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.16%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%0.8%2026-09-01 18:40
Smarkets3.00I 33.33%NM 33.08%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.16%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%0.8%2026-09-01 18:35
Matchbook3.00I 33.33%NM 33.08%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.16%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%0.8%2026-09-01 18:35