Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Fleetwood Town v Gillingham

Inicio: 2026-08-22 14:00 UTC

Final: Fleetwood Town 0–0 Gillingham

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Fleetwood Town (Local)

Predicción 49.00%2.04momio equitativo
EV -4.46%
Ventaja -2.29%
Kelly -4.69%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.90%49.17%48.85%52.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.751.891.911.9557.14%52.83%52.36%51.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Gillingham (Visitante)

Predicción 24.31%4.11momio equitativo
EV -0.318%
Ventaja -0.078%
Kelly -0.103%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.47%24.24%24.33%25.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.773.804.1029.41%26.51%26.32%24.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.69%3.75momio equitativo
EV +1.43%
Ventaja +0.376%
Kelly +0.510%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.90%26.59%26.82%28.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.423.403.8030.77%29.21%29.41%26.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Fleetwood Town (Local): 49.00%; Gillingham (Visitante): 24.31%; Empate: 26.69%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.75. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.80, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.43%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.97%EV -8.38%E -4.48%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.95%EV -3.24%E -0.813%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.08%EV +1.43%E +0.376%K +0.510%G +0.007%4.9%2026-08-22 13:55
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -9.36%E -5.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -1.24%E -0.336%K -0.460%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 13:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.64%EV -14.26%E -8.15%K -19.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -0.318%E -0.078%K -0.103%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -1.24%E -0.336%K -0.460%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 13:50
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.52%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.57%EV -6.40%E -1.66%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -2.58%E -0.706%K -0.972%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 13:54
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.42%EV -7.89%E -4.20%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -8.83%E -2.35%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.91%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 13:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.11%EV -9.36%E -5.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.14%EV -6.64%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.75%EV -3.91%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 13:50
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -10.34%E -5.65%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -12.47%E -3.47%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -3.91%E -1.09%K -1.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-21 22:23
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.22%EV -8.87%E -4.77%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.24%EV -2.26%E -0.563%K -0.749%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.54%EV -6.05%E -1.72%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 13:54
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -4.46%E -2.29%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -2.75%E -0.687%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-19 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -2.75%E -0.687%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 02:09
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -2.75%E -0.687%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 02:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.87%EV -5.44%E -2.82%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -5.18%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.95%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-20 08:38
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -4.46%E -2.29%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-19 15:19
Bet Victor🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -6.91%E -3.64%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -2.75%E -0.687%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 11:10
betano_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -8.38%E -4.48%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -0.318%E -0.078%K -0.103%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 13:55
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -5.44%E -2.82%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -8.83%E -2.35%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-19 15:20
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 13:15
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -9.36%E -5.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -2.75%E -0.687%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 13:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -9.36%E -5.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -2.75%E -0.687%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 13:50
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -10.34%E -5.65%K -12.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -2.75%E -0.687%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 13:15
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.89%EV -7.89%E -4.20%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -10.04%E -2.71%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 22:19
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -9.36%E -5.06%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -6.58%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 13:53
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.07%EV -6.91%E -3.64%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -5.18%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -7.91%E -2.29%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-22 02:09
Neds🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.07%EV -6.91%E -3.64%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -5.18%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -7.91%E -2.29%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-22 02:09
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -5.18%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 02:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.88%EV -6.91%E -3.64%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -5.18%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 13:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.88%EV -6.91%E -3.64%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -5.18%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 13:10
Bet Right🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -10.04%E -2.71%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-19 15:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -10.04%E -2.71%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-19 14:20
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -8.38%E -4.48%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -10.04%E -2.71%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-20 09:44
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.46%EV -8.38%E -4.48%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -10.04%E -2.71%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -10.58%E -3.16%K -4.50%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-20 08:39
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.36%EV -5.93%E -3.09%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -3.97%E -1.00%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 13:50
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -7.89%E -4.20%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -0.318%E -0.078%K -0.103%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 13:55
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 05:04
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 05:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 05:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 05:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.94%EV -5.93%E -3.09%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.75%EV -14.91%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-20 00:35
Casumo🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.94%EV -5.93%E -3.09%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.75%EV -14.91%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-20 00:35
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.94%EV -5.93%E -3.09%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.75%EV -14.91%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-20 00:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.94%EV -5.93%E -3.09%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.75%EV -14.91%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-20 00:35
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.94%EV -5.93%E -3.09%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.75%EV -14.91%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-20 00:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.94%EV -5.93%E -3.09%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.75%EV -14.91%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-20 00:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.94%EV -5.93%E -3.09%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.75%EV -14.91%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-20 00:36
betPARX🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.94%EV -5.93%E -3.09%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.75%EV -14.91%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-20 00:34
BetRivers🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.94%EV -5.93%E -3.09%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.75%EV -14.91%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-20 00:35
Grosvenor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -6.42%E -3.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.96%EV -16.12%E -4.67%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.14%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-20 06:59
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -8.38%E -4.48%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -6.40%E -1.66%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -13.25%E -4.08%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-22 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.96%EV -7.40%E -3.91%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.73%EV -16.12%E -4.67%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.31%EV -13.25%E -4.08%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-20 00:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.92%EV -7.89%E -4.20%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -17.34%E -5.10%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.14%EV -13.25%E -4.08%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-20 06:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.92%EV -7.89%E -4.20%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -17.34%E -5.10%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.14%EV -13.25%E -4.08%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-20 06:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 52.07%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.10%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83%0.6%2026-08-22 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 52.07%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.10%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83%0.6%2026-08-22 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 52.07%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.10%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83%0.6%2026-08-22 13:50
Matchbook◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.27%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-08-22 13:55
Smarkets◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-08-22 13:50